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While energy prices stayed steady in February, the numbers show that they were already on the rise even before the United States waged war on Iran. As the Strait of Hormuz begins its third week of closure to its myriad political adversaries, extending what was already the single largest disruption to global oil trade in history, we can expect to see skyrocketing energy prices over the coming weeks and months. And that means that we can expect political disruptions that last a whole lot longer. As the United States and Israel continue a bombardment…
In just over two weeks since the US-Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, more than 12 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) of Middle East oil and gas production has been taken offline, including 7 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude supply – equivalent to roughly 7 % of total global liquids demand. Iraq has been hit hardest, with over 60% of its pre-conflict volume curtailed. Still, the more alarming reality is that the worst is likely yet to come. Rystad Energy analysis shows that in a worst-case…
Asia is the biggest market for liquefied natural gas. Asia is also the destination of up to 90% of Qatari and Emirati LNG—or was, until this month. With the shutdown of Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex and the Strait of Hormuz traffic disruption, Asia is facing a lot of energy supply pain. QatarEnergy announced a complete halt to LNG production after Iranian drone strikes hit facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City on March 2. A force majeure declaration followed on QatarEnergy exports. The move started a…
The United States and Iran are fighting not just because of their differences, but also because of their similarities. Both countries see themselves as exceptional civilizations shaped by religion and sustained by a sense of victimhood. Each believes it has been repeatedly wronged by the other and is therefore acting defensively. This mutual narrative has become one of the most powerful forces shaping U.S.–Iran relations. Both nations interpret the relationship through different historical starting points. Because their memories of the conflict…
