After US-Iran nuclear talks concluded in Geneva under heavy American pressure on Tehran to curb its nuclear activities, leading Washington experts say the crisis now stands at a tipping point, with the chances of peace or war at "50-50." Negotiations ended on February 18 with no breakthrough. The White House said the sides remain "very far apart" despite what it described as limited progress. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters that Iran is expected to return with more details "in the next couple of weeks." Ahead of the Geneva meeting,…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict The next strategic territory emerging as a point of friction on the world stage is the Chagos Islands. The UK is preparing to transfer sovereignty of the islands to Mauritius, while still preserving long-term U.S.-UK control over the military base on Diego Garcia. The structure would give legal sovereignty to Mauritius, with Diego Garcia leased back for continued military use. Diego Garcia is a core logistics and strike hub for U.S. operations stretching from the Middle East to the Indo-Pacific. The base hosts…

Iran is burying parts of its nuclear infrastructure because it is preparing for a U.S. strike, not an invasion. The U.S. has the ability to hit fixed targets inside Iran instantly, without moving ground forces, so the only plausible military scenario in view is a limited strike. Negotiations have continued through intermediaries. This week, Tehran said it was preparing a written proposal outlining terms for de-escalation. Washington, surprisingly, has kept public messaging tight (no cartoons on X). Talks are ongoing, but military options remain…

Typically, one of the first things I do when I am thinking of writing about something is to search the database and see what I might have said about that stock, sector, or whatever in the past. That can be an interesting exercise at times, and it was this week. I was surprised to see that the last time I had talked about tanker stocks here was back in February of 2021. That is surprising because they are something that I follow consistently. The fortunes of the tanker companies are, of course, linked to crude prices, but they can also sometimes…

Light crude oil futures are extending their gains this week, up 5.70% and threatening to break out to the upside as U.S.-Iran tensions continue to escalate. The market has rallied more than 20% from its December lows, and the big question now is how much further it can go given that the world remains well-supplied with oil. Wednesday's 4% Jump Was Just the Beginning Wednesday's 4% single-session surge set the tone for the week. It was a direct reaction to the military buildup in the Middle East and the growing fear that the U.S. is preparing to…

A jump in China’s crude oil imports from Russia is more than compensating the withdrawal of the Indian refiners from spot Russian purchases, according to tanker-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.  So far in February, deliveries of Russia-origin cargoes at Chinese ports have averaged 2.09 million barrels per day (bpd), up from an average of 1.72 million bpd in the full month of January and 1.39 million for December, the data showed.   For Russia, the hike in Chinese purchases of its crude has more than offset the loss of a…

Tullow Oil, a London-listed firm focused on oil and gas developments in Africa, has extended debt maturities by two and a half years in a major refinancing agreement with the holders of two-thirds of senior notes and with mining and commodity giant Glencore.  Tullow Oil on Friday said it had entered into a binding Lock-Up Agreement to implement a refinancing transaction with holders of about 66% of its $1.28 billion in senior secured notes due May 2026, as well as with Glencore.    The refinancing transaction releases its Senior…

The global AI and data center boom will need acceleration of renewable energy rollout to avoid plunging millions of people into energy poverty as power bills jump, the founder of China’s major wind turbine maker Envision told the Financial Times.  “For this AI revolution, lots of people may end up with energy poverty,” Envision’s founder and chief executive officer Lei Zhang told FT.  The growing electricity demand from AI infrastructure and data centers is changing the narrative of the need of renewables. Clean…

Hungary is releasing oil from its strategic petroleum reserves to ensure supply after Russian crude flows via the Druzhba pipeline stopped at the end of last month. The Hungarian government will release 250,000 tons of crude oil from the country’s strategic reserves, with domestic oil company MOL having priority access to the commodity, according to a government decree published in the official gazette. At the end of January, Druzhba, the pipeline that carries Russian crude to refineries in Hungary and Slovakia, was damaged in what Ukraine…

Saudi oil exports to India are on course to book the strongest month since 2020, according to data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. India has been under intense pressure from the United States to stop importing crude from Russia, and while New Delhi has been wary of making any formal commitments, oil flows to one of the world’s largest importers of the commodity have changed. Saudi oil shipments to India are seen at a daily average of between 1 million barrels and 1.1 million barrels, Kpler lead research analyst Sumit Ritolia said. This is…

Libya’s first oil licensing round in more than 17 years, launched by the National Oil Corporation (NOC) in March 2025, was meant to signal the country’s upstream comeback after more than a decade of war and fragmentation. The round offered 22 onshore and offshore blocks, including 19 undeveloped discoveries, and drew strong early interest: 44 companies and one consortium applied, with 37 pre-qualified by July. Established players such as Eni, TotalEnergies, BP, Repsol and OMV were joined by a wide range of international entrants, from…

Long dominated by its agricultural and oil sectors, Sudan is now keen to unlock its vast mineral wealth as Africa's third-largest, and the world's thirteenth-largest, nation in terms of mineral diversity. Sudan is a major African gold producer, with the sector becoming a crucial source of foreign exchange following the loss of 75% of its oil revenue after the secession of South Sudan in 2011. However, ~75% of its resources remain unexplored, with deposits of copper, iron ore, chromite, zinc, base metals, uranium and various rare earth elements…

The Trump Administration could face an energy dilemma ahead of the midterm elections. The U.S. energy dominance agenda and booming LNG exports – pillars of the Administration’s policy – are boosting domestic natural gas demand and raising American energy bills. U.S. LNG exports are hitting record highs, and are set to continue setting records in the coming months and years as new plants are being commissioned, built, and approved, with the strong backing of the Trump Administration. However, soaring demand for feedgas from the…

Last week, the Trump administration delivered “one of the single largest deregulatory actions in U.S. history” when it ended the 2009 “endangerment finding,” which definitively and legally classified carbon dioxide as a threat to public health. This legislation fundamentally underpinned any legal authority at the federal level to restrict greenhouse gas emissions in the United States. As such, this action rescinds all emissions standards for cars and trucks effective immediately, with enormous implications for the electric…

Japan has made the first commitments under a $550-billion investment program that made part of its trade deal with President Trump. Those first commitments are worth $36 billion and include what Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has called “the largest natural gas generation facility in history.” The U.S. and Japan sealed a trade deal last summer, featuring a reduction in proposed tariffs—from 25% to 15%—on Japanese imports and a $550-billion Japanese investment pledge for the U.S. economy. Japan also pledged under the deal…

Every few years, a statistic captures the climate debate and briefly dominates headlines. The latest one comes from an analysis highlighted by Inside Climate News, claiming that just 32 companies are responsible for roughly half of global carbon dioxide emissions. It is a striking figure. It is also deeply unconstructive. Not because the data is wrong, but because the conclusion many draw from it has very little to do with how emissions can actually be reduced in a complex, fast-changing global energy system. Correlation Is Not Control Most of…

Bulgaria’s Lukoil Neftohim Burgas refinery has saved $8 million in just two months after dropping its Swiss-based trading intermediary Litasco SA, with Special Commercial Administrator Rumen Spetsov telling Russia’s parliamentary committee that the savings came mainly from scrapping commission fees previously paid to the middleman between the refinery and Lukoil’s oil reserves, Novinite reported on Thursday. Spetsov said the refinery's financial position has further stabilized through deferred payments and barter deals (exchanging…

Bulgaria’s Lukoil Neftohim Burgas refinery has saved $8 million in just two months after dropping its Swiss-based trading intermediary Litasco SA, with Special Commercial Administrator Rumen Spetsov telling Russia’s parliamentary committee that the savings came mainly from scrapping commission fees previously paid to the middleman between the refinery and Lukoil’s oil reserves, Novinite reported on Thursday. Spetsov said the refinery's financial position has further stabilized through deferred payments and barter deals (exchanging…

Bulgaria’s Lukoil Neftohim Burgas refinery has saved $8 million in just two months after dropping its Swiss-based trading intermediary Litasco SA, with Special Commercial Administrator Rumen Spetsov telling Russia’s parliamentary committee that the savings came mainly from scrapping commission fees previously paid to the middleman between the refinery and Lukoil’s oil reserves, Novinite reported on Thursday. Spetsov said the refinery's financial position has further stabilized through deferred payments and barter deals (exchanging…

Cenovus Energy on Thursday reported a surge in fourth-quarter net earnings from a year earlier as its upstream production rose by 5% on the year to hit a record high.  Cenovus Energy’s net earnings jumped to US$683 million (C$934 million) for the fourth quarter, up from US$107 million (C$146 million) for the same period of 2024.  The fourth-quarter operating results included record upstream production of 917,900 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d), and downstream crude throughput of 465,500 barrels per day (bpd), representing…