Oil prices could spike and hit again their peak Iran-war levels at nearly $120 per barrel if a full recovery of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz takes until July, according to JP Morgan. Despite the ceasefire announced earlier this week, traffic through the critical oil chokepoint remains severely restricted and under supervision and approval by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). "The ceasefire has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and transit remains tightly controlled," maritime intelligence firm Windward said on Thursday.…

Oil prices could spike and hit again their peak Iran-war levels at nearly $120 per barrel if a full recovery of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz takes until July, according to JP Morgan. Despite the ceasefire announced earlier this week, traffic through the critical oil chokepoint remains severely restricted and under supervision and approval by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). "The ceasefire has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and transit remains tightly controlled," maritime intelligence firm Windward said on Thursday.…

Oil prices could spike and hit again their peak Iran-war levels at nearly $120 per barrel if a full recovery of vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz takes until July, according to JP Morgan. Despite the ceasefire announced earlier this week, traffic through the critical oil chokepoint remains severely restricted and under supervision and approval by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). "The ceasefire has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and transit remains tightly controlled," maritime intelligence firm Windward said on Thursday.…

Amid reports Iran and the US are considering charging vessels a “toll” to transit the Strait of Hormuz, maritime insiders say such a move could backfire if other countries decide to charge ships for passing through natural maritime chokepoints. “This is international free passage,” Olav Myklebust, a Norwegian oil tanker manager, says, “so the rules are very clear.” According to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), ships engaged in “innocent passage” through a country’s territorial…

Crude oil markets reversed sharply lower during the week of April 5 through April 9, 2026, as traders shifted from aggressive risk pricing to rapid liquidation. After surging the previous week on geopolitical tensions, May WTI crude failed to sustain higher levels and entered a wide, volatile range. Prices reached a weekly high of $117.73 before collapsing to a low of $91.05. As of Thursday, crude is trading at $98.39, down $13.15 or -11.79% for the week so far. This sharp reversal follows last week’s breakout rally, where supply fears tied…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict It’s been a busy week on the U.S.-Iran front. Trump escalated to the point of threatening to wipe out Iran, then pulled back when oil prices spiked, and the stock market took a hit tied to the Strait disruption. The narrative then turned into one claiming that all U.S. military objectives have already been met. By way of saving face in the reversal, Trump threatened tariffs on anyone supplying Iran. The military goals remain unclear at this time. And the current ceasefire is shaky at best. Israel is continuing…

The last month or so has been a wild ride for those who trade oil futures or invest in energy stocks, which presumably describes pretty much everyone reading this. In the last few days of February, just before Israel and the US attacked Iranian targets, WTI futures were bouncing around the $65 level. That represented a five-month high but was still well within the range that seemed reasonable at the time. Presumably, at that point, the market generally agreed with my view that Donald Trump’s stated opposition to wars and entanglements outside…

Against the backdrop of global disaster, and only halfway through this anti-war administration, Americans are largely watching this all unfold as if it’s another Netflix offering coupled with tantalizing social media posts. But in addition to ethical and moral concerns, it is reasonable at this time to be concerned about markets, and money is generally the only thing that commands attention these days.  Americans are arguably over-invested, which represents a faith in the order of things that is no longer warranted, and possibly financially…

Saudi Arabia's SATORP refinery, jointly owned by Aramco and TotalEnergies, was shut down after one of two refining units was damaged by incidents earlier this week, the French supermajor said in an update to the market on Friday. The SATORP site was affected by incidents that occurred during the night of April 7 to 8, causing damage to one of the refinery’s two processing trains, TotalEnergies said today. “No casualties were reported. As a safety precaution, the units were shut down. An assessment of the consequences for the refinery’s…

An empty supertanker flying the flag of Russia has transited the Strait of Hormuz and moved into the Persian Gulf with Iran’s Kharg Island broadcast as its initial destination, Bloomberg reported on Friday, citing vessel-tracking data. The very large crude carrier (VLCC) Arhimeda, built in 2000, moved into the Gulf from the Strait of Hormuz late on Thursday, as the market and analysts are focusing on monitoring how traffic through the chokepoint is now faring after the ceasefire announced on Tuesday night. Arhimeda took the flag of Russia…

Ukraine will complete in the spring repairs on the damaged oil pipeline Druzhba, which carries Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. At the end of January, the Druzhba oil pipeline was damaged in what Ukraine said was a Russian drone attack. Supplies of Russian oil to Hungary and Slovakia, the last two remaining EU member states dependent on Russian crude flows via Druzhba, have been halted since January 27. “We will complete the repairs because that is the agreement. I told them we would…

The biggest oil producers in the Middle East are asking their Asian customers to submit cargo loading nominations for the export ports that require passage through the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign that the Gulf petrostates are taking tentative steps toward preparing for resumed oil flows through the chokepoint. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq are asking for loading nominations for April and May for cargoes that would have to eventually transit the Strait of Hormuz, sources familiar with the plans told Reuters on Friday. Despite the ceasefire announced…

Oil prices have declined by the biggest margin since the Iran war began in late February, with Brent crude for June delivery and WTI for May delivery retreating to the mid-$90s per barrel, alongside falling refined product prices. The United States and Iran agreed to a temporary two-week ceasefire on Wednesday, with Tehran allowing safe passage for shipping vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. The two weeks are intended as a window to finalize a permanent settlement, with formal talks scheduled to begin in Pakistan. However, oil and commodity…

A year ago, any news about rising oil production anywhere would only serve to make oil traders more bearish on the commodity amid persistent talk of a massive glut. Now, any news of more supply is a welcome change in a world suddenly dominated by reports about fuel rationing and the very real possibility of severe oil shortages. Enter Argentina. Argentina’s crude oil production hit 847,000 barrels daily earlier this year as the country doubles down on the largest shale oil and gas formation outside the United States, the Vaca Muerta. Thanks…

Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices have eased from the three-year highs hit in March as reduced rates of withdrawal at the end of the heating season and news of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire calmed the extremely volatile gas market.   But the European market appears too complacent as the real stress test for Europe’s gas supply will unfold in the coming months, analysts say. The European Commission has warned that energy prices will remain elevated for months to come, regardless of ceasefires or an immediate unconditional reopening…

Missile and drone strikes have cut Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity by about 600,000 barrels per day and reduced flows through its East-West pipeline by roughly 700,000 bpd, the Kingdom’s energy ministry has revealed. The East-West system has become one of Saudi Arabia’s primary export routes, moving crude from the Gulf to the Red Sea and bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. One of the pipeline’s pumping stations was struck, limiting throughput. At the same time, direct hits to upstream assets have taken barrels offline.…

A widespread myth in energy circles is that U.S. refineries are “unable” to process the light, sweet crude produced by the shale boom. The claim tends to surface whenever gasoline prices rise or energy independence becomes a talking point. The argument is usually that the U.S. is producing record volumes of oil, yet still imports crude because its refineries were built for heavier foreign barrels. It’s a compelling narrative, but it’s mostly wrong. U.S. refineries can and do process shale crude every day. The issue isn’t…

The AI explosion is causing demand for energy to skyrocket around the world. The projections for the future of energy use by data centers are staggering, and the private and public sectors alike are rushing to get ahead of the issue. While Big Tech has thrown a lot of money – and a lot of PR – into expanding the development of current and next gen renewables to meet their ballooning energy needs, the tech sector is causing a lot of fossil fuels expansion, too, casting doubt on previously charted decarbonization timelines. Take Google,…

Fervo Energy and Turboden, part of the Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Group, announced a three-year framework agreement to supply Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) turbines for up to 35 of Fervo’s standardized 50 MW GeoBlocks. The deal totals 1.7 gigawatts of carbon-free, dispatchable baseload power, marking a major step toward scaling next-generation geothermal across the United States. The agreement builds directly on an earlier pact covering three GeoBlocks at Fervo’s Cape Station project in Utah, where Phase I commissioning…

President Trump has floated the prospect of a “joint venture” with the Iranian leadership on administering a tax on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz in a new peace deal for the region. Trump said both the US and Iran could jointly tax ships passing through the stretch of water, which is critical for around a fifth of global crude oil supplies, with negotiations developing at a fast pace following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire. He told ABC News that it would be a “beautiful thing” for the two countries…