Oil sentiment has turned sour despite a Fed rate cut and the Trump administration’s aggressive tanker seizures. Friday, December 12, 2025 The US Federal Reserve has lowered the federal funds rate to 3.50-3.75%, the Trump administration has seized a Venezuelan VLCC and promised to take over more, yet the sentiment in the markets has soured this week, with ICE Brent trading slightly above $61 per barrel. It remains to be seen whether it’s trepidation before a potential Russia-Ukraine peace deal or another seasonal bout of depression induced…

India’s government on Friday approved the landmark Atomic Energy Bill, which would allow private companies to invest in its nuclear energy industry for the first time, as the country looks to boost its nuclear power capacity tenfold within two decades.   The so-called SHANTI (Sustainable Harnessing of Advancement of Nuclear Energy for Transforming India) bill passed the federal government approval on Friday. Later this month, the bill is expected to be submitted to Parliament for discussion and vote in the winter session. …

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict This week, Washington has again increased the pressure on Venezuela with the first seizure of a sanctioned tanker off the Venezuelan coast, and preparations for more, in a bid to further disrupt PDVSA’s logistics by scaring the insurers. The effect reverberates by raising the risk premium. At the same time, Chevron is in active discussions with the Trump administration on how it can continue operations in Venezuela in compliance with sanctions, with the Chevron CEO emphasizing the supergiant’s “long…

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), the paramilitary bloc that broke from the Sudanese army and now dominates most of Sudan’s western belt, has moved on the Balila facility in West Kordofan, and it is already affecting the energy corridor. Balila feeds directly into the GNPOC line carrying South Sudan’s Dar blend to Port Sudan, and operators now acknowledge disruptions along the corridor. South Sudan’s budget rests almost entirely on these flows. Any interruption tightens the margin immediately. By taking Balila, the RSF has positioned…

The US shale exploration and production (E&P) and Lower 48 midstream sectors experienced a volatile and challenging 2025, likely a far cry from what operators envisioned this time last year as the second Trump administration’s ‘energy dominance’ agenda was taking shape. With WTI languishing below $60 for much of the year, oil E&Ps moderated activity, with the oil-directed rig count dropping from 415 in January to 386 by Thanksgiving. In contrast, Henry Hub gas prices remained supported throughout much of the year, with…

Falling oil prices and strengthening Russian currency are set to slash Russia’s oil and gas revenues by nearly 50% in December from a year earlier, to the lowest level since August 2020, according to Reuters calculations.  Revenues for the state from oil and gas are set to reach $5.15 billion (410 billion Russian rubles) this month, nearly halved from December last year, and the lowest in over five years. The last time Russia had this roughly level of oil and gas revenues, at $5.1 billion (405 billion rubles), was in August 2020, when…

As regular readers will know, there is no trading opportunity I like more than a market overreaction. As I know all too well from my own experience, news of any kind takes on exaggerated importance when you are focused on one narrow sector of any market. That applies whether the “you” refers to a person in a dealing room or an algorithm trained to react to key words and phrases and/or market moves. So, when the one-time market darling of nuclear power companies, Oklo (OKLO), a company that builds and operates nuclear power plants and…

West Texas Intermediate crude traded sharply lower through Thursday, December 12, settling at $57.60 per barrel and posting a week-to-date loss of $2.48, or 4.13%. Market sentiment stayed firmly bearish as traders focused on heavy global supply, soft demand projections, and fading geopolitical premiums. With the week still in progress, the tone heading into Friday remained pressured by fundamental forces that continued to outweigh short-lived intraday rebounds. Oversupply has become the defining feature of the market, with traders questioning whether…

Russia’s shipments of refined petroleum products inched down by 0.8% in November compared to October as a plunge in exports from the Black Sea ports was offset by a jump in shipments from Baltic Sea terminals, Reuters estimates showed on Friday.    Ukrainian drone attacks on refineries in southern Russia and the Black Sea oil port of Tuapse crippled exports of fuels from the Black Sea export terminals last month.   The port of Tuapse suspended fuel exports for half of the month of November, due to the drone attack…

An explosion occurred earlier this week at a key onshore natural gas pipeline in Nigeria, disrupting operations at the link shipping gas to industrial users and power plants, Nigeria’s state oil company NNPC confirmed late on Thursday.  The explosion occurred on the evening of December 10 on the Escravos–Lagos pipeline near the Tebijor, Okpele, and Ikpopo communities in the Delta State. Initial observations indicate a pressure drop consistent with a loss of containment at the gas pipeline, NNPC said in a statement.  “The…

Harbour Energy, one of the biggest independent oil and gas producers in the UK North Sea, said on Friday it would buy all the subsidiaries of Waldorf Energy Partners Ltd and Waldorf Production Ltd substantially, in the latest merger announcement in Britain’s oil and gas province.  Harbour Energy will pay $170 million for the acquisition of the companies that are currently in administration in a deal that is immediately materially accretive to Harbour’s free cash flow and will support the competitiveness, resilience, and longevity…

The United States plans to seize more tankers carrying Venezuelan crude, Reuters reported today, citing unnamed sources who said there was already a list of vessels targeted for seizure. Earlier in the week, the move by U.S. federal government forces to seize the Panama-flagged tanker Skipper off the Venezuelan coast prompted a jump in oil prices as it signaled possible disruption of oil flows out of Venezuela. The news of plans for more seizures may extend the rally even though prices dipped on Thursday in a counterintuitive reaction to the original…

ExxonMobil released its updated corporate plan on Tuesday, wherein it upgraded its 5-year outlook. Exxon expects earnings to increase by more than $14 billion at constant prices through 2030 from 2024 levels, $5 billion above its previous forecast by ramping up output in its Permian Basin assets and Guyana, as well as expanding natural gas and LNG production. But Exxon isn’t just drilling more--the company is also changing the industrial process of shale extraction. In effect, the Oil & Gas giant is using "stackable technologies" to improve…

It finally happened — U.S. shale’s crown jewel has hit the number the doomers have been pointing to for years. The Permian Basin is set to produce a record 6.76 million bpd this month, and according to the EIA, that figure may stand as the basin’s all-time high. In any other oil province on the planet, that sort of declaration would cue the obituaries. But the Permian is not “any other basin,” and this is not a story of decline. It’s a story of mutation. What looks like a geological ceiling is, in reality, the…

The first lease sale for the Gulf of Mexico during President Trump’s second term drew bids worth close to $300 million, with the average price bid per acre the highest in eight years. The total, however, was $100 lower than the bids made in the last Gulf lease sale, back in 2023. The Trump administration plans a total of 30 lease sales for offshore oil and gas, to run until 2040. The series should tap a total of 29.6 billion barrels of crude oil and 55 trillion cu ft of natural gas. This was the first in the series, aimed at advancing the…

The US National Security Strategy Is Correct About European Strategic Weaknesses The recent publication of the United States National Security Strategy provoked a strong reaction amongst many in the political establishment across Europe, both within and outside the EU. It has been widely seen by critics as proof of a clear and explicit divergence between the United States and Europe. In truth, many of the points raised about Europe’s strategic weaknesses are much more accurate than many of those currently in leadership in Europe are prepared…

The House on Thursday narrowly approved the PERMIT Act, a Republican-backed measure that would roll back the authority states have used for years to block major pipeline projects under the Clean Water Act. The 221–205 vote marks the chamber’s most aggressive attempt yet to redraw the permitting map just as the U.S. enters the largest natural gas pipeline expansion cycle since the shale boom. At the center of the bill is Section 401 of the Clean Water Act — the clause Northeastern governors have repeatedly used to halt gas lines…

The House on Thursday narrowly approved the PERMIT Act, a Republican-backed measure that would roll back the authority states have used for years to block major pipeline projects under the Clean Water Act. The 221–205 vote marks the chamber’s most aggressive attempt yet to redraw the permitting map just as the U.S. enters the largest natural gas pipeline expansion cycle since the shale boom. At the center of the bill is Section 401 of the Clean Water Act — the clause Northeastern governors have repeatedly used to halt gas lines…

On Wednesday, the United States carried out one of its most consequential maritime interventions to date. The Federal Bureau of Investigation, Homeland Security Investigations, and the United States Coast Guard, acting with support from the Department of War, seized a crude oil tanker accused of transporting sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran. It was a dramatic show of force in already volatile waters and an intervention that has jolted Caracas. The operation was presented as a decisive strike against illicit oil flows. Yet within hours, Venezuela…

Washington moved aggressively back into Venezuela’s oil sector on Thursday, sanctioning Maduro family members, a longtime business ally, and six companies operating tankers that have kept PDVSA’s exports alive through opaque shipping practices. It’s the clearest sign yet that the brief thaw under Biden is over, and that the Trump administration intends to put real teeth back into the sanctions regime. At the center of the new action are three nephews of Cilia Flores, Maduro’s powerful wife. Two of them, better known in Caracas…