Few debates in Brussels carry as much emotional charge as critical raw materials. Mention lithium, rare earths, graphite, or nickel and the discussion almost immediately turns alarmist. China dominates the supply chain. Europe is dangerously dependent. The energy transition is at risk. The tone often suggests inevitability, as if this imbalance were a law of physics rather than the result of political and industrial choices. Step back from the panic and a different picture emerges. Europe’s vulnerability in critical materials is not geological.…

Australia's mining giant, BHP Group ( NYSE:BHP), will wait out talks over the proposed merger by the United Kingdom’s Rio Tinto Group (NYSE:RIO) and Switzerland-based commodity trading and mining company Glencore Plc. (OTCPK:GLCNF), people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Monday. With a market cap of $162 billion, BHP was viewed as the most likely spoiler of Rio's bid for Glencore that would create the world's largest mining company. However, the Australian miner says it will not pursue a counterbid because Glencore is not complementary…

The Chinese are nothing if not persistent. In December 2025, Wu Xinbo, Dean, Institute of International Studies, Fudan University and advisor to the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs, used the pages of Foreign Affairs, to propose a “grand bargain” between China and America. Wu argues that U.S.–China relations have reached a pivotal moment that requires a comprehensive reset to prevent long?term confrontation. He proposes starting with economic cooperation—easing U.S. technology restrictions and increasing Chinese market…

Germany has finalized a deal to buy a stake in the German division of Dutch power grid operator TenneT (TenneT Germany) for around €7.6–€8.9 billion (approx. $8.2–$9.6 billion), locking in some state influence over critical high-voltage infrastructure and unlocking funding capacity for the grid expansion required by the energy transition, Reuters reported on Monday.  The transaction is aimed at easing one of the most persistent constraints in Germany’s energy shift: financing and executing large-scale transmission…

The United States is now engaged in what I am calling "smash-and-grab" diplomacy in Venezuela, and it will perhaps soon do the same in Greenland, a territory of the Kingdom of Denmark. In case you have never heard the term, smash-and-grab refers to robberies undertaken by smashing store windows and/or display cases and taking what is readily available without concern about alarms going off or people on the street or in the store seeing what the robbers are doing. The phrase seems more descriptive than the older one of "gunboat diplomacy", in…

The dollar sold off and gold rallied on Monday, after Donald Trump ramped up his assault on the Federal Reserve by opening an unprecedented criminal investigation into the central bank and its chair, Jerome Powell. The US dollar fell some 0.36 per cent against a basket of major currencies, while the spot rate of gold climbed as much as 1.9 per cent as traders digested the President’s most dramatic salvo of a long-running feud with the Fed and its chair. Powell revealed that the US Justice Department had served the Fed with grand jury subpoenas…

Indonesia inaugurated on Monday the upgraded Balikpapan refinery, which cost $7.4 billion to redevelop and is another step toward self-sufficiency in fuel supply. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto and Energy Minister Bahlil Lahadalia attended the inauguration ceremony for Pertamina’s refinery, whose processing capacity has been raised to 360,000 barrels per day (bpd) from 260,000 bpd, making it the country’s largest refinery in terms of capacity. “We must be capable of producing our own food and energy,” Subianto, the…

U.S. President Donald Trump on Jan. 11 told Cuba that it should forge a deal with the United States now that Washington has pushed Venezuela to cut off its supply of oil and money to the communist-run island. After the U.S. military captured Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro on Jan. 3, interim Venezuelan leader Delcy Rodríguez has redirected oil deliveries to the United States. Cutting off Venezuelan oil supply to Cuba, which has historically relied on support from Caracas, would apply significant pressure to the Caribbean country,…

Vitol and Trafigura are offering Venezuelan crude to refiners in China and India for March delivery, trade sources told Reuters on Monday, days after two of the world’s biggest independent oil traders obtained special U.S. licenses to help market Venezuela’s oil.   At the request of the US government, Trafigura and Vitol are providing logistical and marketing services to facilitate the sale of Venezuelan oil, Trafigura said on Friday, following a meeting of oil industry executives with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White…

Following the Iraq Oil Ministry’s recent dispatch of exclusive invitations to several major U.S. energy firms to develop the country’s huge West Qurna 2 oilfield after the forced exit of Russian oil number two Lukoil, American oil giant Chevron has emerged as a leading contender. This should occur after an interim nationalisation of the field intended to keep production going as the Russian firm completes its withdrawal. The company is also expected to move ahead shortly with the development of the Nasiriyah project, which comprises…

Azerbaijan, a key natural gas supplier to Europe, raised its production by 2.4% in 2025 from the previous year, the Azeri Ministry of Energy said on Monday.  Azerbaijan produced 51.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas last year, up by 1.2 bcm, or 2.4%, compared to 2024, according to the ministry’s data cited by the Azerbaijan State News Agency (AZERTAC). The giant Shah Deniz field produced 27.9 bcm, the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) fields contributed 14.1 bcm to Azeri gas output last year, the Absheron field yielded 1.6 bcm, while…

Azerbaijan, a key natural gas supplier to Europe, raised its production by 2.4% in 2025 from the previous year, the Azeri Ministry of Energy said on Monday.  Azerbaijan produced 51.5 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas last year, up by 1.2 bcm, or 2.4%, compared to 2024, according to the ministry’s data cited by the Azerbaijan State News Agency (AZERTAC). The giant Shah Deniz field produced 27.9 bcm, the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) fields contributed 14.1 bcm to Azeri gas output last year, the Absheron field yielded 1.6 bcm, while…

US President Donald Trump said the Iranian leadership called to seek talks with Washington in the face of his threats of military action in response to Tehran's brutal crackdown of mass anti-government protests. "The leaders of Iran called," Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on January 11. He added that "a meeting is being set up.... They want to negotiate." However, "we may have to act before a meeting," he added without being specific. It wasn't immediately clear what Iran might seek to negotiate. The two countries in the past have had…

Oil production offshore Benin, Nigeria’s neighbor to the west, is set to begin by the end of January, the field operator said on Monday in what would be the first oil from the redeveloped field after it was shut down in 1998.  Akrake Petroleum expects to start production at the Seme Field in Block 1 offshore Benin at the end of January 2026, when it completes the drilling of production well AK-2H in the reservoir section, set to start early this week, Akrake’s indirect owner, Singapore-based Rex International Holding Limited, said…

Last year, upstream oil investment was projected to have declined 2.5% Y/Y to $420 billion after low oil prices put pressure on producers and slowed expansion plans. Companies across the industry continued to prioritize profitability, free cash flow, and debt reduction over aggressive production growth, a trend reinforced by macro uncertainty. The decline was also driven by reduced spending by U.S. independent light tight oil and shale producers, even as national oil companies (NOCs) in the Middle East increased their investment, and spending on…

Traders are betting record amounts of money on China’s metals markets, expecting a continued rally in the prices of base metals and lithium. At the end of 2025 and the start of 2026, speculators held record-high open interest in the base metals copper, zinc, nickel, tin, lead, and aluminum traded on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and near-record open interest in battery metal lithium on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange. Concerns about tightening global metal supply, lower interest rates driving investment in metal commodities, and expectations…

In recent months, Iran has produced record levels of oil, even in the face of United States sanctions on its energy exports and the bombings conducted by Israel on Tehran. Iran has forged strong partnerships with China and other world powers to circumvent sanctions and continue exporting its crude, a trend that is expected to continue into 2026. However, the recent military intervention that the U.S. carried out in Venezuela could undermine this growth by making trade partners more wary of purchasing U.S.-sanctioned crude. Iran continues to be…

The numbers are not adding up at Tajikistan’s signature infrastructure project, the Rogun Dam. An independent audit of the project’s financial statements has found a $540 million accounting gap and has determined that electricity-production operations at the work-in-progress facility are losing money. Controversy is nothing new for the Rogun project, which if completed to its maximum specifications would become the world’s tallest dam. Critics argue the dam is a white elephant in the making that threatens to upend a delicate regional…

Somalia has lagged many other African countries when it comes to energy output, despite its strong potential for renewable energy production. Much of Somalia’s population still does not have access to electricity or clean cooking fuels. However, greater investment in the expansion of Somalia’s wind and solar power sectors, with support from strong regulatory frameworks, could help rapidly transform the country into a regional clean energy power.  Somalia has an installed capacity of approximately 400 MW, with roughly 300 MW coming…

China is boosting domestic natural gas production, and it is doing it fast. A major LNG consumer—and importer—the country has been key in LNG demand forecasts. Now, these forecasts will need to be revised. Less than ten years ago, China was struggling to get its domestic gas production off the ground, especially in shale formations. China’s shale geology is different from the U.S. basins, and energy companies were finding it difficult to get commercial production going. Now, China’s state oil and gas majors are pumping more…