Oil market fundamentals appear to have entirely given way to sentiment recently, with Trump's tariff war with China driving prices down.Friday, April 11th, 2025 This week, one may not have noticed that oil markets are still backwardated and that refiners are still buying oil because the general sentiment in oil markets soured to its lowest level in years. Seemingly ceaseless salvos of incremental import tariffs between the US and China frightened the oil markets to such an extent that even Trump’s 90-day delay on implementation…

The United States could halt Iranian oil exports if it increases pressure on Tehran to ensure that it will never obtain a nuclear weapon, U.S. Secretary of Energy, Chris Wright, told Reuters during a visit to Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The U.S. allies in the Gulf region, which include the UAE and Saudi Arabia, are very concerned by the prospect of an Iran with a nuclear weapon and share the U.S. position that Iran shouldn’t be allowed to have one, Secretary Wright told Reuters. The top U.S. energy official is on a tour in…

Numbers Report – April 11, 2025In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy and metals sectors. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers. Let’s take a look.1. Kazakhstan’s Cheating Becomes OPEC+’s Headache - OPEC+’s decision to speed up its production unwinding in May-July has served the oil group a trick, as collapsing prices only aggravated member countries’…

Crude oil futures endured a relentless sell-off this week as escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China deepened fears of an economic slowdown, triggering a widespread reassessment of demand expectations. The fallout from tit-for-tat tariffs—now reaching an astonishing 145% on Chinese goods—has severely undermined confidence in the global consumption outlook, particularly from China, the world’s second-largest crude importer. Investor sentiment took a hit early in the week as oil prices plunged nearly 4% on Monday alone,…

Politics, Geopolitics, & Conflict Trump has accused Mexico of violating a 1944 water treaty by failing to deliver enough water to Texas, harming farmers in the south and leading to the closure of a sugar mill. Trump is threatening tariffs over the issue, also mentioning sanctions (however, tariffs and sanctions seem to be conjoined in the administration).  We are keeping a close eye on developments between Israel and Turkey, who are at dangerous odds over the future of Syria, with both external actors now homing in on Assad’s old…

If this week’s volatility wasn’t enough for you, the weekend promises to cook up even more market catalysts to ensure a manic Monday. As the market spins in a kaleidoscope of newsflashes about tariffs, more tariffs, postponement of tariffs (allegedly influenced by a hedge fund billionaire), more tariff threats, recession, crashing oil prices, and a dismal outlook for demand, the only thing that's certain is that this is far from over.  And this is all taking place against the backdrop of a barrage of geopolitical developments,…

Venezuelan state-owned oil firm PDVSA has revoked authorizations to U.S. supermajor Chevron to load and export crude from Venezuela this month, following the Trump Administration’s increased sanctions on Venezuelan oil exports and tariffs on its oil buyers, Reuters reports, quoting sources familiar with the matter. The Trump Administration has already revoked Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela and export oil from its oilfields, with May 27 the deadline for Chevron to wind down its operations in the South American country.…

Looking back, I realize that I started talking in these pages about some degree of correction and volatility in markets caused by the possibility of a recession, or at least the fear of one, five weeks ago. I don’t, however, claim that that makes me a genius. In fact, I would say that you would have to be pretty dumb not to have seen this coming. Whatever you may think of him, Donald Trump is somebody who very often does what he has said he will do, and he never stopped saying on the campaign trail that he would impose tariffs on America’s…

Just ahead of the production increase beginning in April, the OPEC+ group boosted its oil production to an eight-month high in March, according to the Platts OPEC+ Survey from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The total oil production from the alliance rose to 41.04 million barrels per day (bpd) in March, up by 30,000 bpd from February. The producers in OPEC+ who have quotas busted their overall output ceiling by a massive 319,000 bpd, according to the Platts survey. Kazakhstan remained the producer, exceeding its quota the most. The OPEC+ producer,…

European Union member states on Friday agreed to give more flexibility to the natural gas storage goals by expanding the period in which countries should have 90% full storage ahead of the winter and could deviate by up to 10% from the filling target. The EU supported the European Commission’s proposal to extend the gas storage regulation by two years. But EU member states also want more flexibility in reaching the filling target to avoid price spikes if market conditions are tight. Today, the representatives of the EU member states approved…

The April market rout, which crashed oil prices into the low $60s per barrel, is creating additional fiscal challenges to petrostates and oil-producing countries heavily dependent on oil revenues, on top of any tariff-related hardships. As Brent Crude prices sank to $63 per barrel, major producers in the Gulf region, as well as Brazil and Nigeria, are looking to contain the fallout from the price plunge. Russia’s central bank has already signaled that the oil price decline could hit its economy hard. Oil at $60 is about $20 to $30 per barrel…

BP expects to post a weak natural gas trading result for the first quarter, as well as lower gas output, as the UK-based supermajor is resetting its strategy back to core oil and gas operations. Reported upstream production in the first quarter is expected to be lower compared to the prior quarter, with oil production slightly higher and gas and low-carbon energy output lower, including announced divestments in Egypt and Trinidad completed towards the end of prior quarter, BP said in a Q1 trading statement on Friday. The oil trading result is expected…

BP expects to post a weak natural gas trading result for the first quarter, as well as lower gas output, as the UK-based supermajor is resetting its strategy back to core oil and gas operations. Reported upstream production in the first quarter is expected to be lower compared to the prior quarter, with oil production slightly higher and gas and low-carbon energy output lower, including announced divestments in Egypt and Trinidad completed towards the end of prior quarter, BP said in a Q1 trading statement on Friday. The oil trading result is expected…

China hit back at the U.S. tariffs by raising on Friday the Chinese tariff on U.S. goods to 125% from 84% earlier, escalating the U.S.-China standoff. “The U.S. imposition of abnormally high tariffs on China seriously violates international and economic trade rules, basic economic laws and common sense and is completely unilateral bullying and coercion,” China’s Finance Ministry said in a statement. Oil prices, which had been climbing before China's announcement, dropped in response to the news. At the time of writing, both WTI…

Crude oil exports from Saudi Arabia to China are expected to increase substantially next month, thanks to the sizable price cut by the Saudis, Reuters reported today, citing unnamed sources. Volume allocations to Chinese refiners reveal that Saudi exports in May will rise to 48 million barrels from the 35.5 million barrels scheduled for delivery this month. Saudi Arabia cut the official selling prices for its oil sharply ahead of a production boost set for next month. The sharpest cut was made for the price of oil sold in Asia, with flagship Arab…