The anticipated Trump-Putin meeting has become the dominant storyline in commodity markets this week, as traders and analysts weigh the chances of a sweeping geopolitical deal. August 8, 2025The Trump-Putin meeting has become the main commodity market news of this week, with analysts speculating about the likelihood of a comprehensive deal and the impacts this could have on oil markets. ICE Brent has been gradually sliding closer to $65 per barrel as lower sanction risks on Russia could further erode the market’s in-built risk premium, however…

This past week, energy markets behaved in what many people view as an unusual manner. As crude oil futures exhibited one of the largest weekly declines in a while, natural gas held steady and even rallied around the middle of the week. To add even more confusion, those moves happened as the major stock market indices strengthened again to challenge their all-time highs. So, what is going on? Why is crude underperforming so badly relative to natural gas and stocks? First, let’s look at the crude/natty relationship As I write on Friday, crude…

Numbers Report – August 08, 2025 In the latest edition of the Numbers Report, we will take a look at some of the most interesting figures put out this week in the energy and metals sectors. Each week we’ll dig into some data and provide a bit of explanation on what drives the numbers. Let’s take a look. India Mulls Its Options as Refiners Slow Down Russian Purchases US President Donald Trump is set to impose an additional 25% tariff on India, bringing the total rate to 50%, after US-India trade talks did not lead to any agreement…

Argentina’s plans to become a major energy exporter are going through a unique area in Patagonia, home to an endangered whale species and many orcas and sea lions and a UNESCO heritage site.  As Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play is ramping up oil and gas production, international majors and local companies are planning to expand the energy infrastructure in the region to Argentina’s Atlantic coast to enable exports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).   But the Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline, proposed by a partnership…

Argentina’s plans to become a major energy exporter are going through a unique area in Patagonia, home to an endangered whale species and many orcas and sea lions and a UNESCO heritage site.  As Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale play is ramping up oil and gas production, international majors and local companies are planning to expand the energy infrastructure in the region to Argentina’s Atlantic coast to enable exports of crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).   But the Vaca Muerta Sur pipeline, proposed by a partnership…

Major international oil and gas companies have scaled back or quit operations in Colombia’s offshore exploration and production areas, as the country’s leftist president has imposed stricter rules and exploration drilling failed to live up to expectations.   Since leftist President Gustavo Petro took office in 2022, the barriers to oil industry investors have increased with tighter regulations for conventional oil and gas exploration and a ban on fracking.  Colombia stopped awarding new oil exploration contracts while…

Light crude oil futures posted steep losses this week, with prices sliding over 5% to settle near $63.85. The sharp selloff was fueled by a wave of bearish fundamental developments—including an OPEC+ supply boost, escalating trade disputes, softer U.S. crude exports, and uncertainty surrounding Russian energy sanctions. Each factor contributed to a deteriorating sentiment across the energy complex, driving futures to their lowest levels in nearly two months. The weekly slide was compounded by a steady flow of bearish news rather than a single…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict Netanyahu’s push for full military control of Gaza is meeting sharp resistance from within Israel’s own security establishment. IDF Chief of Staff Lt.?Gen. Eyal Zamir has openly warned that a full occupation would endanger hostages, exhaust military resources, and spark a sustained insurgency. Though not a political actor, Zamir’s public opposition carries institutional weight and could constrain Netanyahu’s options, especially if public confidence in the war strategy falters. Past IDF…

Gulf involvement in the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea corridor has entered a significant new phase, and one that is set to be more permanent and less accountable. This week’s activity, including a new Emirati delegation to Somaliland and renewed Saudi engagement around the Red Sea Council, confirms that Abu Dhabi and Riyadh are deepening their competing models of influence across this strategic zone. The shift isn’t new, but the scale and pace are clearly accelerating. The concern now is structural. Gulf-backed deals are locking in…

In a major U-turn in energy policy, Mexico has unveiled a 10-year plan to reverse a years-long decline in oil and gas production by tapping more unconventional resources through fracking.  Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, the world’s most indebted energy firm, has seen declines in its output in recent years as old shallow-water conventional fields mature.   Now the government and its state-controlled energy giant want to revitalize production via fracking, Reuters reports, citing the revitalization plan.  In the late 2010s,…

Continued weaker demand for hybrid vehicles slowed the growth in China’s new energy vehicles to 12% in July from nearly 20% in June, according to official Chinese data published on Friday. Overall Chinese car sales also saw slowing growth last month, as the government is trying to tackle the overcapacity in the vehicle manufacturing sector, which has led to price wars and losses for many automakers. Total car sales in China grew by just 6.9% in July, compared to an 18.6% annual rise in June, per data from the China Passenger Car Association…

Fortescue has secured a Chinese yuan-denominated loan of about $2 billion (14.2 billion yuan) as Australia’s energy and metals group is betting on increased collaboration with China in green energy after halting clean energy projects in the U.S. and Australia.    Fortescue’s loan in Chinese yuan with participation from Chinese, Australian, and international lenders, is the first yuan-denominated Syndicated Term Loan of its kind by an Australian corporate, the group said on Friday, adding it is “a landmark transaction…

Fortescue has secured a Chinese yuan-denominated loan of about $2 billion (14.2 billion yuan) as Australia’s energy and metals group is betting on increased collaboration with China in green energy after halting clean energy projects in the U.S. and Australia.    Fortescue’s loan in Chinese yuan with participation from Chinese, Australian, and international lenders, is the first yuan-denominated Syndicated Term Loan of its kind by an Australian corporate, the group said on Friday, adding it is “a landmark transaction…

Russia’s Urals crude grade, which usually goes from the western Russian ports to India, is now being offered at discounts in China amid uncertainties over Indian purchases of Moscow’s oil following the additional tariffs.  Spot Urals shipments going to China would be a significant re-routing of the Russian oil export flows. Prompt Urals cargoes are now being pitched to Chinese buyers, who typically import the Far Eastern Russian grade ESPO. Urals is being offered at a premium of $1.50 over London Brent, down from a $2.50 a barrel…

Brazil’s Petrobras reported a profit for the second quarter of the year, booking a net positive result of some $1.6 billion after posting a loss of $480 million for the first quarter of the year. The positive result came despite weaker average oil prices, the company noted. The company reported an average production rate of 2.91 million barrels of oil equivalent for the three-month period, noting it was 5% higher than the average for the first quarter of the year. Petrobras said it had started production from 14 new wells during the reporting…

Crude oil prices were headed for a steep weekly drop as of Friday morning, with a combination of tariff fears and OPEC+ production instilling a strong sense of bearishness in oil traders. At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $66.39 per barrel, with West Texas Intermediate at $63.79 per barrel, both down from Thursday’s close. Interestingly, prices fell despite President Trump’s decision to slap an additional tariff of 25% on all Indian imports as a punishment for India’s purchases of Russian crude. The additional…

President Trump has announced his intention to nominate Stephen Miran, his close economic adviser and an outspoken Federal Reserve critic, to temporarily fill a vacant seat on the Fed's Board of Governors. The appointment, which comes amid renewed calls from Trump for deep interest rate cuts, marks another chapter in Trump's struggle for control over U.S. monetary policy. Miran is set to take over the remainder of Adriana Kugler's term, who resigned unexpectedly to return to her academic post at Georgetown University. While the term ends on January…

The European Union has increased its imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 9% since the war in Ukraine began in 2022, even as it calls out other nations for allegedly financing the Kremlin. According to The Economic Times, Russian LNG shipments to the bloc rose while purchases from the U.S. and other exporters fell. In 2024 alone, the EU imported 17.8 million tonnes of Russian LNG—up more than 2 million tonnes from the previous year—reaching what Rystad Energy analyst Jan-Eric Fähnrich described as “record levels.”…

Argentina’s booming Vaca Muerta shale play isn’t immune to the decline in oil prices and company spending this year. Drilling activity is set for a near-term slowdown as foreign firms and the biggest domestic producer YPF SA are pulling out some frac crews amid lower international oil prices and a major asset reshuffle with mergers and acquisitions in recent months. But the long-term prospects of the Vaca Muerta shale resources—one of the world’s biggest—remain intact, and Argentina is looking to monetize both the…

Second-quarter financial reporting season is over and it has revealed two things. First, that Big Oil’s recovery from its energy transition experiment is still ongoing and that European supermajors have yet to catch up with their American sector players—on production and earnings alike. Exxon and Chevron both reported record oil and gas output for the second quarter despite weaker prices in international markets. For Exxon, the daily average was 4.6 million barrels of oil equivalent, made possible by continued strong growth in Guyana…