America’s February 28 missile strikes that leveled the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters ended more than a decade of nuclear stalemate. By the time the dust settled and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was confirmed, the focus of the conflict had shifted. As Washington navigates the aftermath, it is discovering that the "Resistance Economy" Khamenei spent years building was not merely an oil play. It was a calculated integration into a resource axis designed to withstand Western pressure. And China is the silent partner…

Armenia and Azerbaijan are on edge, worried that TRIPP potentially could be upended by the US-Israeli attack on Iran. Hoping to shield against any spillover, Yerevan and Baku are staking out cautious stances on military developments in Iran, their southern neighbor, calling for a quick cessation of hostilities.  The attack on Iran places Armenia and Azerbaijan in a delicate position. Both have moved quickly since agreeing on a provisional peace deal last summer to develop commercial opportunities with the United States, centering on the launch…

Canadian heavy crude rallied Tuesday as geopolitical risk in the Middle East began reshuffling global barrels in real time. Heavy Western Canadian Select strengthened in Alberta to a discount of $11.80 per barrel to the monthly average of West Texas Intermediate, according to Modern Commodities pricing. That marks the narrowest differential since November and a clear signal that heavy sour alternatives are suddenly back in favor. The move comes as Iraq begins shutting in output of roughly 1.6 million bpd due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Iraqi…

Electricity companies, over the next five years, will spend far more than they had planned to meet rising power demand and to shore up a creaking network. That means selling far more stock than anticipated, too. (The Hidden Math Behind Electricity Prices, OilPrice, 26 February 2026). The utility’s ability to sell that stock at favorable prices depends on the returns that it can earn on the money invested, which, in turn, depends on whether regulators permit it to earn the return dictated by market conditions. That is a long-winded way of…

For years, policymakers reassured markets that the architecture of global energy security had grown stronger. Shipping routes were diversified. Strategic reserves were expanded. Renewable energy gained momentum. Major producers coordinated more closely to shield oil prices from geopolitical shocks. The system, many believed, had matured. Yet the recent U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran have shaken that confidence to its core. When tensions escalated around the Strait of Hormuz, the vulnerability of the global energy system was exposed with startling…

Gas prices in the UK have nearly doubled as the war between US and Iran ramped up since the weekend. The price of UK wholesale gas prices – which reflect the costs energy suppliers pay to producers for natural gas before selling to household and businesses – has rocketed by 93 per cent in just this week alone. The price of gas briefly hit 151p a therm amid the conflict in the Middle East, a level not seen since February 2023, before easing back to around 148p. The move followed a 32 per cent jump on Tuesday, which sits on top of a 50…

Strikes, tanker attacks, and a silent Hormuz push Brent to $84, with $90 oil now firmly in sight. The Hormuz Closure That No One Wants to Talk About - The Israel-US-Iran conflict engulfing most of the Persian Gulf has pushed $10 per barrel higher, LNG prices went up by $15 per MMBtu, and key refined products such as diesel and jet have been spiralling out of control throughout the Atlantic Basin.  - Whilst market watchers almost unanimously define the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the main bullish factor ahead, very few have, in fact,…

Brent’s premium to the Middle East’s Dubai benchmark has blown out to its widest level since 2022, confirmation that the global oil market is squarely trading on disruption. As of Tuesday morning, Brent was trading around $83–$84 per barrel, up more than 7% on the day, while Dubai crude sat near $68, barely moving. The spread between Brent futures and Dubai swaps — known as the Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) — surged above $6 per barrel, compared to less than $2 just last week before the Iran conflict erupted.…

Brent’s premium to the Middle East’s Dubai benchmark has blown out to its widest level since 2022, confirmation that the global oil market is squarely trading on disruption. As of Tuesday morning, Brent was trading around $83–$84 per barrel, up more than 7% on the day, while Dubai crude sat near $68, barely moving. The spread between Brent futures and Dubai swaps — known as the Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) — surged above $6 per barrel, compared to less than $2 just last week before the Iran conflict erupted.…

While crude oil and gas markets are trying to find their own footing, other crises are already on the horizon. At present, the global debate surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is framed through crude oil prices, Asian LNG demand, and Europe’s still fledgling security. Yes, these are very visible shockwaves, but behind these media clouds, something else is hiding in plain sight. One of the most immediate and severe casualties of a prolonged Hormuz closure, or even worse a regional war, will not be a major industrial power but…

U.S. intervention in Venezuela removed a major destabilizing force in South America’s Northern Andes region, the authoritarian regime of illegitimate president Nicolas Maduro. While this will revitalize Venezuela’s economic backbone, the country’s oil industry, it will impact nearby countries, notably those producing heavy crude. Among the most exposed to the risks posed by Venezuela’s resurgent oil patch is Ecuador. For over a decade, Ecuador’s government in the capital Quito has been battling to resurrect the economically…

Iraq has begun curtailing oil production at key southern fields, including Rumaila, while West Qurna 2 is also shutting in roughly 460,000 barrels per day, according to Iraqi oil officials. The cuts follow escalating regional tensions that have effectively stalled tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iraqi authorities said disrupted navigation and a shortage of available tankers have pushed storage tanks in southern export terminals toward critical levels, forcing production reductions. Related: Trump’s Secret Weapon in the Rare Earth…

Iraq has begun curtailing oil production at key southern fields, including Rumaila, while West Qurna 2 is also shutting in roughly 460,000 barrels per day, according to Iraqi oil officials. The cuts follow escalating regional tensions that have effectively stalled tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iraqi authorities said disrupted navigation and a shortage of available tankers have pushed storage tanks in southern export terminals toward critical levels, forcing production reductions. Related: Trump’s Secret Weapon in the Rare Earth…

India’s gas marketing companies have informed industrial customers they would receive lower gas supply, industry sources told Reuters, after Qatar announced on Monday it would halt LNG production due to attacks on its liquefaction facilities.   QatarEnergy, the state firm of the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, on Monday announced that “Due to military attacks on QatarEnergy’s operating facilities in Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City in the State of Qatar, QatarEnergy has ceased production…

Oil prices jumped by 8% early on Tuesday as markets brace for a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and fears of supply disruptions began to materialize.  As of 7:00 a.m. ET on Tuesday, the international benchmark, Brent Crude, had jumped by 8.36% to $84.24.  The U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, moved up past the $75 per barrel threshold and traded at $76.93, up by 8% on the day.    After a 10% jump on Monday, oil prices continued their upward trajectory on Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump said that the war in Iran,…

The U.S. government spends roughly $900 billion on defense each year. The private aerospace and defense sector generates close to $1 trillion in annual revenue. Over the next five years, nearly $10 trillion will flow through production lines that build fighter jets, missile defense systems, naval vessels, radar networks, satellites, and drones. All of it depends on one industrial step North America largely abandoned decades ago: the conversion of rare-earth oxide into magnet-grade metal. For decades, China has dominated rare earths — not…

Following a 40% surge on Monday, Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices soared by another 30% at opening on Tuesday as the halt of LNG production in Qatar, the world’s second-largest LNG exporter, roiled global gas markets and put energy security in Asia and Europe at risk.  The front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, jumped by 34% at opening before paring some gains, but they were still 26% higher since Monday’s close as of 8:30 a.m. in Amsterdam on Tuesday.   …

It’s not hyperbole to call what transpired today in Qatar a seismic event for global energy markets. On March 2, QatarEnergy — the state-owned energy giant responsible for all of the country’s liquefied natural gas exports — announced a complete halt to LNG production after Iranian drone strikes hit facilities at Ras Laffan Industrial City and Mesaieed Industrial City. And the effects of the shutdown will go well beyond the short term. These aren’t minor processing units. These are the heart of Qatar’s LNG infrastructure,…

From the moment that Russia invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022, liquefied natural gas (LNG) became the key global emergency energy source. Unlike pipelined energy that requires time-consuming infrastructure build-out and contract negotiations before it can be moved anywhere, LNG can be bought in the spot market when required and move swiftly to wherever it is needed. As increasing sanctions have hit Russia’s previously enormous global oil and gas exports, LNG’s crucial importance to the world’s energy balance has increased. Against…

Oil prices jumped nearly 10% in Monday's early session after Iran launched a barrage of retaliatory missiles and drone strikes targeting Israel and U.S. bases in the Persian Gulf following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Saturday. And, it could get worse: JPMorgan Chase has warned that Brent crude oil prices could spike to $120 per barrel if the conflict leads to sustained disruption of oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Whereas the Strait of Hormuz has not officially been closed, it is experiencing a de…