Bank of America is warning investors not to chase oil prices higher if crude climbs above $100 per barrel, arguing that prices at those levels tend to trigger government and central bank responses aimed at cooling the economy. The bank said oil has already been one of the biggest market movers this year. Crude prices are up nearly 70% year-to-date, far outpacing broader commodities, which are up about 41%, and gold, which has gained roughly 17%. Over the same period, the S&P 500 has fallen about 2.5%, while bitcoin has dropped around 20%. According…

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has warned that the current energy crisis triggered by the war in the Middle East marks the “largest disruption” in the history of the oil market. The group made a record intervention in the market on Wednesday, with the release of 400m barrels from the strategic reserves. But the move has made little difference to the surging price of Brent crude – the international benchmark for oil – which once again eclipsed the $100 mark on Thursday on the news two Iraqi tankers had been struck…

The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States rose this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday, bringing the total rig count in the US to 553 this week, down 39 from this same time last year. The number of active oil rigs rose by 1 to 412 during the latest reporting period, according to the data. This is 75 below this same time last year. The number of gas rigs also rose by 1, reaching 133, which is 33 more than this time last year. The miscellaneous rig count stayed the same at 8. The…

The United States and Israel have largely destroyed Iran's conventional naval fleet in a massive bombing campaign since February 28. But Tehran's threat to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important shipping routes, has not diminished. Iran has effectively closed the narrow waterway, through which 20 percent of the world's oil supplies flow, by using asymmetric warfare tactics. Besides Iran's conventional navy, the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), the elite branch of the country's armed forces, has its own naval…

Saudi Arabia has slashed oil output by roughly 20% as the war with Iran continues to choke off exports from the Persian Gulf, in what could become one of the largest sudden supply losses the global oil market has ever faced. Saudi production has dropped by about 2 million barrels per day to around 8 million bpd after the kingdom shut down output from the massive Safaniya and Zuluf offshore fields, according to sources cited by Reuters. The two fields together produce more than 2 million bpd of mainly heavy and medium-heavy crude. The shutdown is…

The operator of Tengiz, the biggest oilfield in Kazakhstan, on Friday said it is investigating an incident from Wednesday, which has not interrupted supply.  The field, operated by a Chevron-led consortium, has not stopped oil production, sources told Reuters.   Uninterrupted operations at Tengiz, which has the capacity to produce as much as 950,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, would be crucial for global oil supply at these times in which about 10% of daily oil supply is already shut in by the producers in the Middle East,…

Brent crude is set to close above $100 for the first time since 2022 as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensify. ICE Brent is set to settle above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022, undeterred by the US’ easing of sanctions on Russia and the IEA’s mulled release of strategic petroleum stocks. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sits front and centre to any oil price outlook, with Iran already striking at least 18 vessels since the US-Iran conflict started two weeks ago. Iran’s New Supreme Leader Goes All…

The war in the Middle East has effectively shut in 15% of TotalEnergies’ global oil and gas output, while the now-offline barrels account for about 10% of the supermajor’s upstream cash flow. Following requests from shareholders and to answer the question about the status of TotalEnergies’ exposure to Middle East, the France-based international major said on Friday that “production has been shut down or is in the process of shutting down in Qatar, Iraq, and UAE offshore, representing approximately 15%” of the group’s…

For decades, global attention has focused on the potential “red line” of Iran’s nuclear program. Intelligence agencies track centrifuge installations, debate enrichment levels, and speculate about the possibility of a nuclear breakout. But while the world has been watching Iran’s nuclear program, it has a far more immediate strategic lever. Iran’s most powerful weapon is not a bomb. It is the geography it controls. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow shipping corridor between Iran and Oman. If that passage is effectively…

Investment banks are scrambling to revise up their oil price forecasts as the Middle East war cripples supply from the most important oil-producing region, with some expecting oil to surge to $150 per barrel or even higher if the Strait of Hormuz remains off limits for tanker traffic for several weeks.  Analysts at Macquarie warned of this potential price spike, while all other major investment banks hiked their first-quarter and second-quarter forecasts.   Goldman Sachs, for example, expects Brent Crude prices to average over $100…

Crude oil markets experienced intense volatility between March 8 and March 12 as traders reacted to escalating geopolitical tensions, threats to global oil shipping routes, and emergency supply measures from major consuming nations. The week saw both benchmarks swing sharply as the market tried to price in the risk of a major supply disruption in the Middle East. By Thursday’s close, nearby West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading at $96.77, up $5.87 or 6.46%, reflecting how quickly sentiment shifted during the week. At the center…

Oil on War Footing The disruption to Qatar’s LNG system is now spreading through the global trading network. Shell and TotalEnergies have begun notifying customers that deliveries may be disrupted after QatarEnergy halted LNG production following drone strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. These companies buy cargoes from Qatar and resell them under their own contracts to utilities and industrial buyers across Europe and Asia. When upstream supply stops, those downstream commitments cannot be guaranteed. Traders therefore begin declaring force…

The IEA estimates that at least 10 million bpd of supply has already been shut in, making it the largest disruption the oil market has ever faced. Refineries across the Gulf are reducing runs because products cannot be exported. Diesel, jet fuel, and LPG markets are tightening sharply. Governments have responded with a record 400-million-barrel release from strategic reserves, but those barrels will arrive slowly while the disruption is happening now. At the same time, Tehran itself is sending mixed signals. Iranian diplomats say the country does…

Refiners can legally buy at least 19 million barrels of Russian crude held on 25 tankers in Asia under the one-month U.S. waiver allowing sales as Middle Eastern supply is choked.   The U.S. Treasury on Thursday moved to allow until April 11 purchases of Russian crude stuck in tankers in floating storage.  Some 30 tankers carrying Russian crude oil and petroleum products are in Asia currently, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.  Of these tankers, 25 are laden with crude while the rest hold products, mostly…

Goldman Sachs expects Brent Crude prices to average over $100 per barrel this month as the Middle East war continues to choke supply, the investment bank said on Friday, noting that prices could surge even higher if the biggest oil supply disruption in history extends into months instead of weeks.  Analysts at Goldman Sachs see the average Brent Crude price at $85 per barrel in April, they said in a note carried by Reuters.   The new estimates follow Thursday’s price forecast update in which Goldman Sachs hiked its Brent Crude…

Oil producers in the Arab Gulf have already lost at least $15.1 billion in oil and gas revenues since the start of the Middle East war, per estimates by commodities analytics firm Kpler cited by the Financial Times. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off since March 1, millions of barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products, and 20% of the global LNG supply.  Since the war began, Gulf producers have already lost $15.1 billion in revenues, based on estimates that the choked supplies that cannot pass the…

The fight for geopolitical supremacy is increasingly a fight over rare earths — the critical elements that power advanced defense systems, high-performance manufacturing, and next-generation energy technologies. REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) is already operating in the most strategic segment of that chain, converting heavy rare earth materials into high-performance magnets and alloys inside the United States.For Washington, the challenge is not geology — it’s processing. Many Western companies are still in early exploration or planning…

Saudi Arabia has opened a tender for two million barrels of its flagship Arab Light grade for loading this month from its Red Sea port of Yanbu, Reuters has reported, citing unnamed traders. This is Saudi Arabia’s fourth oil tender as it seeks to redirect crude supply from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has pivoted onshore Arab Light volumes onto the 7 million barrels per day Petroline from the east to Yanbu on its western shores. This has pushed Yanbu’s oil exports to about 2.47 million bpd, a massive 330% surge compared…

Just a month ago, Alberta’s finance ministry announced a budget featuring annual deficits for three years in a row on the back of low oil prices. Now, Canadian crude oil producers are set to “benefit disproportionately” from the war in the Middle East thanks to the fact that Canadian crude prices follow WTI closely—and WTI is spiking. When Minister Nate Horner presented the budget for Canada’s oil province, he said expectations were that oil prices would bottom out this year and start rising in 2027. Little could Horner…

Wall Street analysts are warning that U.S. airlines could face a painful earnings squeeze as oil prices surge amid the escalating war with Iran. Crude prices jumped over 9% on Thursday as the conflict rattled energy markets and heightened fears of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Many U.S. carriers largely abandoned fuel hedging in recent years, leaving them far more exposed to sudden price spikes and raising the prospect that only a handful of airlines can remain profitable at current oil prices. Airlines and oil producers typically rely…