Oil prices surged for a second day running on Tuesday as global markets brace for a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. On Monday, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officially declared the Strait of Hormuz "closed," warning that any vessel attempting to pass will be attacked or "set ablaze". While the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) maintains the waterway is not formally closed, traffic has dropped by approximately 70-80%, with major global shippers, including Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, and MSC, suspending all crossings. Brent crude…

Iraq has already begun shutting in production as exports through the Strait of Hormuz become increasingly constrained. Roughly 1.5 million barrels per day are reportedly offline, and officials have warned that figure could approach 3 million bpd if disruptions persist. At 3 million bpd, this becomes one of the largest sudden supply losses in the modern market outside of sanctions or war. Iraq’s total crude production has been running near 4.0–4.3 million bpd, according to recent OPEC secondary-source data. Exports typically average…

China has been amassing crude in strategic and commercial reserves for nearly a year—propping up oil prices throughout 2025 even though its demand growth has weakened. As we rolled into the very tumultuous 2026 with two major geopolitical events upending oil markets in as many months – the U.S. blitz to capture Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro and the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran – China’s oil hoarding will likely pay off in these early days of the unpredictable and already highly disruptive war in the Middle East. The Chinese…

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States rose by 5.6 million barrels in the week ending February 27, after adding 11.4 million barrels in the week prior. Analysts had expected a build of 2.2 million barrels. Inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have stayed at 415.4 million barrels for multiple weeks in a row as of the week ending February 27. This is 310.1 million barrels shy of maximum capacity. US production fell by 33,000 bpd, sinking to an average of 13.702 million bpd…

The very recent signing of two sets of major oil deals by U.S. oil giant Chevron following the forced withdrawal of Russian firms from key energy projects in Iraq is a key turning point in the West’s resurgence in the Middle East, a senior U.S. Treasury source told OilPrice.com last week. “Iraq is the heartland of the Middle East, a major Iranian ally, vital to Russian and Chinese interests, and it’s allowing a major U.S. force into the centre of its economy,” he underlined. So, what does this mean for Iraq’s energy…

A Russian-flagged liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker under U.S. and UK sanctions caught fire in the Mediterranean early Tuesday following a reported explosion, with the fate of its crew initially unclear, according to Reuters and the Times of Malta. The vessel, identified as the Arctic Metagaz, was reportedly destroyed around 4 a.m. local time between Malta and Libya. Multiple sources cited by the Times of Malta said a series of explosions occurred before the crew was rescued and transferred to another vessel in the area. Shipping and maritime…

America’s February 28 missile strikes that leveled the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps headquarters ended more than a decade of nuclear stalemate. By the time the dust settled and the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was confirmed, the focus of the conflict had shifted. As Washington navigates the aftermath, it is discovering that the "Resistance Economy" Khamenei spent years building was not merely an oil play. It was a calculated integration into a resource axis designed to withstand Western pressure. And China is the silent partner…

Armenia and Azerbaijan are on edge, worried that TRIPP potentially could be upended by the US-Israeli attack on Iran. Hoping to shield against any spillover, Yerevan and Baku are staking out cautious stances on military developments in Iran, their southern neighbor, calling for a quick cessation of hostilities.  The attack on Iran places Armenia and Azerbaijan in a delicate position. Both have moved quickly since agreeing on a provisional peace deal last summer to develop commercial opportunities with the United States, centering on the launch…

Canadian heavy crude rallied Tuesday as geopolitical risk in the Middle East began reshuffling global barrels in real time. Heavy Western Canadian Select strengthened in Alberta to a discount of $11.80 per barrel to the monthly average of West Texas Intermediate, according to Modern Commodities pricing. That marks the narrowest differential since November and a clear signal that heavy sour alternatives are suddenly back in favor. The move comes as Iraq begins shutting in output of roughly 1.6 million bpd due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Iraqi…

Canadian heavy crude rallied Tuesday as geopolitical risk in the Middle East began reshuffling global barrels in real time. Heavy Western Canadian Select strengthened in Alberta to a discount of $11.80 per barrel to the monthly average of West Texas Intermediate, according to Modern Commodities pricing. That marks the narrowest differential since November and a clear signal that heavy sour alternatives are suddenly back in favor. The move comes as Iraq begins shutting in output of roughly 1.6 million bpd due to the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Iraqi…

Electricity companies, over the next five years, will spend far more than they had planned to meet rising power demand and to shore up a creaking network. That means selling far more stock than anticipated, too. (The Hidden Math Behind Electricity Prices, OilPrice, 26 February 2026). The utility’s ability to sell that stock at favorable prices depends on the returns that it can earn on the money invested, which, in turn, depends on whether regulators permit it to earn the return dictated by market conditions. That is a long-winded way of…

For years, policymakers reassured markets that the architecture of global energy security had grown stronger. Shipping routes were diversified. Strategic reserves were expanded. Renewable energy gained momentum. Major producers coordinated more closely to shield oil prices from geopolitical shocks. The system, many believed, had matured. Yet the recent U.S.–Israel strikes on Iran have shaken that confidence to its core. When tensions escalated around the Strait of Hormuz, the vulnerability of the global energy system was exposed with startling…

Gas prices in the UK have nearly doubled as the war between US and Iran ramped up since the weekend. The price of UK wholesale gas prices – which reflect the costs energy suppliers pay to producers for natural gas before selling to household and businesses – has rocketed by 93 per cent in just this week alone. The price of gas briefly hit 151p a therm amid the conflict in the Middle East, a level not seen since February 2023, before easing back to around 148p. The move followed a 32 per cent jump on Tuesday, which sits on top of a 50…

Strikes, tanker attacks, and a silent Hormuz push Brent to $84, with $90 oil now firmly in sight. The Hormuz Closure That No One Wants to Talk About - The Israel-US-Iran conflict engulfing most of the Persian Gulf has pushed $10 per barrel higher, LNG prices went up by $15 per MMBtu, and key refined products such as diesel and jet have been spiralling out of control throughout the Atlantic Basin.  - Whilst market watchers almost unanimously define the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the main bullish factor ahead, very few have, in fact,…

Brent’s premium to the Middle East’s Dubai benchmark has blown out to its widest level since 2022, confirmation that the global oil market is squarely trading on disruption. As of Tuesday morning, Brent was trading around $83–$84 per barrel, up more than 7% on the day, while Dubai crude sat near $68, barely moving. The spread between Brent futures and Dubai swaps — known as the Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) — surged above $6 per barrel, compared to less than $2 just last week before the Iran conflict erupted.…

Brent’s premium to the Middle East’s Dubai benchmark has blown out to its widest level since 2022, confirmation that the global oil market is squarely trading on disruption. As of Tuesday morning, Brent was trading around $83–$84 per barrel, up more than 7% on the day, while Dubai crude sat near $68, barely moving. The spread between Brent futures and Dubai swaps — known as the Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) — surged above $6 per barrel, compared to less than $2 just last week before the Iran conflict erupted.…

While crude oil and gas markets are trying to find their own footing, other crises are already on the horizon. At present, the global debate surrounding the closure of the Strait of Hormuz is framed through crude oil prices, Asian LNG demand, and Europe’s still fledgling security. Yes, these are very visible shockwaves, but behind these media clouds, something else is hiding in plain sight. One of the most immediate and severe casualties of a prolonged Hormuz closure, or even worse a regional war, will not be a major industrial power but…

U.S. intervention in Venezuela removed a major destabilizing force in South America’s Northern Andes region, the authoritarian regime of illegitimate president Nicolas Maduro. While this will revitalize Venezuela’s economic backbone, the country’s oil industry, it will impact nearby countries, notably those producing heavy crude. Among the most exposed to the risks posed by Venezuela’s resurgent oil patch is Ecuador. For over a decade, Ecuador’s government in the capital Quito has been battling to resurrect the economically…

Iraq has begun curtailing oil production at key southern fields, including Rumaila, while West Qurna 2 is also shutting in roughly 460,000 barrels per day, according to Iraqi oil officials. The cuts follow escalating regional tensions that have effectively stalled tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iraqi authorities said disrupted navigation and a shortage of available tankers have pushed storage tanks in southern export terminals toward critical levels, forcing production reductions. Related: Trump’s Secret Weapon in the Rare Earth…

Iraq has begun curtailing oil production at key southern fields, including Rumaila, while West Qurna 2 is also shutting in roughly 460,000 barrels per day, according to Iraqi oil officials. The cuts follow escalating regional tensions that have effectively stalled tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Iraqi authorities said disrupted navigation and a shortage of available tankers have pushed storage tanks in southern export terminals toward critical levels, forcing production reductions. Related: Trump’s Secret Weapon in the Rare Earth…