We are starting to see the beginnings of deglobalization: Countries are increasingly at odds with each other. There is wider disparity among political parties. Trump is making what look to many people like unreasonable demands, both within the US and around the world. I believe that there is an underlying problem that most people are missing. A worldwide shortage of diesel and jet fuel is forcing international trade to begin moving into a new downward phase, relative to the recent share of GDP shown on Figure 1. Figure 1. Trade as a share of GDP,…

British Oil and Gas giant Shell Plc. (NYSE:SHEL) needs an exploration breakthrough or a big merger after its oil reserves fell to the lowest levels since 2013, exposing the company to a production shortfall in less than a decade. Shell's so-called 'reserve life'--denoting how long its proven reserves can sustain production at current levels– has dropped to less than 8 years, significantly lower compared with Exxon (NYSE:XOM) and TotalEnergies (NYSE:TTE), each with reserve lives exceeding 12 years. Shell is now facing a production shortfall…

The average margin on a US Gulf coast (USGC) cargo destined to Europe, including regasification costs, was $4.56 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) between 2023 and 2025, or $17.5 million per one LNG vessel, compared to negative margins prior and during the pandemic in 2019 and 2020. These attractive profits have spurred national oil companies and majors, sovereign wealth funds, private equity, Asian utilities and other energy buyers to flock to the USGC with their checkbooks to get in on the action. As a result, a flurry of LNG final investment…

On 29 January 2026, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan welcomed Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev to Ankara for the fourth meeting of the Türkiye–Uzbekistan High-Level Strategic Cooperation Council. The two leaders have met frequently over the past decade, including Erdogan’s working visit to Samarkand in 2016; Mirziyoyev’s state visit to Ankara in 2017; their March 2022 meeting in Tashkent, where they announced the upgrading of bilateral ties to a “comprehensive strategic partnership”; the June…

Money managers have increased bullish wagers on crude oil to the highest levels in months, with renewed geopolitical risk tied to Iran pushing energy markets back toward supply-focused trading, according to Bloomberg. Hedge funds increased net-long Brent crude positions by more than 31,000 contracts in the week ending February 3, lifting total long positions to nearly 278,000 lots, the highest level in roughly ten months. Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission shows that money managers also raised net-long positions in WTI crude to…

Affordability has become a big issue. Drivers see oil affordability increasing to the dismay of the drillers and electricity consumers see the opposite picture as prices rise. Politicians tell us not to worry because stock portfolios have risen in value and, therefore, people are richer and can afford more, but there is a good chance that the people with the affordability problem do not have a rising portfolio of stocks or gold to buffer the higher household bills. The following chart shows the percentage change in value of various measures of…

Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil refineries cost Russia’s oil and gas sector as much as $12.9 billion (1 trillion Russian rubles) last year, according to a local insurance broker.    Direct losses for the sector topped $1.3 billion (100 billion rubles) in 2025. If these are added to the indirect losses and missed sales and profits, the total losses for Russia’s oil and gas industry amounted to $13 billion, Yevgeny Borovikov, deputy CEO at insurance broker Mains, told Russian daily Kommersant.  Last year, Russian insurers…

A US-Central Asia business forum that concluded February 5 in Kyrgyzstan highlighted the significant inroads Washington has made into the region’s mining sector. But it also has shown that much remains to be done if the United States is to gain a larger share of the region’s abundance of critical minerals and rare earths.  A central focus of the second B5+1 forum -- which promotes public-private collaborations by bringing together policymakers and business leaders from across Central Asia and the US -- was on critical minerals.…

The giant Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan has returned 60% of its peak production and was pumping at a rate of 550,000 barrels per day as of Sunday, following a forced shutdown for half of January due to a fire, anonymous sources told Reuters on Monday.  Tengiz, which is operated by a consortium led by U.S. supermajor Chevron, is expected to reach peak levels of oil output of about 950,000 bpd by February 23, according to the sources familiar with the production data.   The Tengiz oilfield was forced into a temporary shutdown on…

Abu Dhabi’s main gas company, ADNOC Gas, has presented its financials. Again, the gas giant is being sold to investors as the perfect Gulf utility, based on its scale, stability, and domestic demand, and especially on its dividend stream, engineered to feel more like a sovereign coupon than an equity risk. The numbers definitely support the story, as the company’s record full-year net income in 2025 is $5.2bn, which is an increase of 3% in comparison to FY2024. These impressive figures are even more positive when you consider that its…

Vitol expects global oil demand to peak around the middle of the 2030s, due to forecasts of slower uptake of electric vehicles, the world’s biggest independent oil trader said in an updated oil outlook on Monday.   Peak oil demand is pushed back to the mid-2030s, mostly due to demand from the road transport sector, other sectors remain broadly unchanged, Vitol said, noting a marked contrast with its report from a year ago, in which the trading giant had expected demand to peak in the early 2030s and then decline.  Significant…

Vitol expects global oil demand to peak around the middle of the 2030s, due to forecasts of slower uptake of electric vehicles, the world’s biggest independent oil trader said in an updated oil outlook on Monday.   Peak oil demand is pushed back to the mid-2030s, mostly due to demand from the road transport sector, other sectors remain broadly unchanged, Vitol said, noting a marked contrast with its report from a year ago, in which the trading giant had expected demand to peak in the early 2030s and then decline.  Significant…

Vitol expects global oil demand to peak around the middle of the 2030s, due to forecasts of slower uptake of electric vehicles, the world’s biggest independent oil trader said in an updated oil outlook on Monday.   Peak oil demand is pushed back to the mid-2030s, mostly due to demand from the road transport sector, other sectors remain broadly unchanged, Vitol said, noting a marked contrast with its report from a year ago, in which the trading giant had expected demand to peak in the early 2030s and then decline.  Significant…

India’s decision to halt Russian oil purchases as part of a wider trade deal with the U.S. announced last week would mark the most dramatic rupture in Moscow–New Delhi energy ties in half a century if the commitment holds. And it comes at the precise moment Washington has been trying to force this break since the first weeks of the Ukraine war. For years, India has been one of the single biggest financial pressure?valves keeping Russia’s wartime economy alive — buying millions of barrels a day at steep discounts, refining…

Germany is proposing that renewable energy developers pay for connecting to the grid in new regulations that would replace the current system of first-come, first-served, Reuters reported on Monday, citing a new draft law it has seen.   The current congestion in the queue for grid connections and the regulations allowing the first applications to be connected is slowing renewables expansion.   “Connecting generation, storage, and consumption facilities to the electricity grid is facing ever greater challenges,” says…

Iran's foreign minister insisted on his country's right to enrich uranium, striking a defiant note as a US naval strike force sailed in regional waters amid weeks of unprecedented domestic turmoil inside Iran. Abbas Araqchi's comments followed talks between US and Iranian officials in Oman over the fate of Iran's nuclear programs. Tehran says its programs are peaceful in nature, aimed at generating electricity; Washington and other countries suspect Tehran is striving to build an atomic weapon. "Zero enrichment can never be accepted by us," Araqchi…

U.S. natural gas prices started the week with a further slide, after ending last week lower, as meteorologists predict warmer-than-usual weather ahead. In early morning Asian trade today, the U.S. benchmark traded at $3.20 per million British thermal units, down by 6.5% from Friday, when prices shed 2.5%, after a three-day climb earlier in the week, Bloomberg reported. Official weather forecasts say the cold spell is over and warmer weather will spread across much of the United States towards the end of this week. Earlier in the year, natural gas…

Indian refiners are still avoiding Russian oil as deals for delivery in April begin to be made, Reuters has reported, citing unnamed sources from the refining industry as well as traders. According to the report, the avoidance comes in anticipation of the trade deal between New Delhi and Washington, scheduled to be finalized in March. The deal would see the United States reduce import tariffs on Indian products, including a 25% special tariff that President Trump imposed on India in punishment for its buying of Russian crude oil. If the Reuters…

The United States has cemented its position as the world's leading exporter of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) over the past couple of years, thanks to surging natural gas demand in Europe and Asia. U.S. LNG exports hit a record 111 million tons in 2025, surpassing 100 million metric tons for the first time, driven by high utilization and new capacity additions from projects like Plaquemines LNG. But this could be just the beginning of the U.S. LNG boom: the EIA has predicted that U.S. LNG export capacity will more than double by 2029, with an estimated…

The tax on carbon Europe introduced at the beginning of the year may have some surprising knock-on effects. The higher cost to producers for exporting goods that were produced using carbon-intensive methods to Europe may drive some to clean up operations. In India, some producers are exploring the potential for transitioning to green steel to reduce emissions and cut export costs to one of its biggest markets. India is one of the world’s main steel producers, and it has become a major supplier of the metal to the European market. India achieved…