Oil prices pulled back sharply for the second day running on Tuesday after U.S. President Trump signaled that the Middle East war is nearing a conclusion, easing fears of prolonged supply disruption, especially at the Strait of Hormuz–even if Iran doesn’t seem to agree and statements coming out of the White House are infused with contradictions. The potential de-escalation effectively reduces the "geopolitical risk premium" that had previously driven prices towards $120 a barrel. Brent crude for April delivery dropped over 10% on Tuesday…

Earlier this year, U.S. forces snatched Venezuela’s Nicolas Maduro from Caracas, and the Trump administration stepped in to take over the country’s oil industry. Many appear to have expected the same with Iran, sooner or later, but for now, it seems President Trump is in no hurry to plan an oil seizure—likely because Iran is a very different story from Venezuela. “You look at Venezuela,” the U.S. president told NBC News. “People have thought about it, but it’s too soon to talk about that.” The rather…

Saudi Arabia was regarded for decades as the ‘global swing oil producer’, able to quickly decrease or increase its oil flows to respectively raise or lower world oil prices. Riyadh has long perpetuated this idea, with grandiose claims about the Kingdom’s crude oil reserves and resultant spare capacity. After two of its key oil installations were hit by rockets from the Iran-backed Houthis back in 2019, it also highlighted that its capacity to recover from such shocks was also extremely quick. So, with the world facing continued…

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 1.7 million barrels in the week ending March 6, after adding 5.6 million barrels in the week prior. Analysts had expected a build of 1.4 million barrels. Inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) have stayed at 415.4 million barrels for multiple weeks in a row as of the week ending March 6. This is 310.1 million barrels shy of maximum capacity. US production fell again, by 6,000 bpd, sinking to an average of 13.696 million bpd…

In China’s new five-year plan, released Thursday, the world’s second-largest economy declared its aim to “lead global climate governance.” However, the targets laid out in the nation’s 15th five-year plan mark a cautious turn in China’s approach to energy strategy, reflecting the global cool-off on climate-related policy and a general sense of unease in energy markets. China is set to continue full-speed ahead in its renewable energy additions, but is fundamentally changing the way that it tracks progress on…

Oil prices are notoriously difficult to forecast. The market has a long history of humbling anyone who speaks with too much certainty. There are just too many complex variables involved. At the end of 2025, the prevailing narrative was that a surplus of oil was in store for 2026. Several major banks and forecasting agencies expected global supply to exceed demand by multiple millions of barrels per day. Some projections—including those from JPMorgan Chase—anticipated Brent crude drifting into the $60 range by mid-2026. How quickly things…

Iran has begun laying naval mines in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, according to two people familiar with U.S. intelligence reporting, in what analysts warn could extend the effective blockade of the world’s most critical energy chokepoint and deepen disruption to global oil flows. The mining activity — currently limited to a few dozen mines laid in recent days — represents an escalation in Iran’s campaign to assert control over the narrow waterway, sources said. Tehran still possesses roughly 80%–90% of…

Iran has begun laying naval mines in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, according to two people familiar with U.S. intelligence reporting, in what analysts warn could extend the effective blockade of the world’s most critical energy chokepoint and deepen disruption to global oil flows. The mining activity — currently limited to a few dozen mines laid in recent days — represents an escalation in Iran’s campaign to assert control over the narrow waterway, sources said. Tehran still possesses roughly 80%–90% of…

Renewable sources of power generation, such as solar, wind, and batteries, are displacing fossil fired power generation. The reason? Price. They produce power more cheaply. This is also a little more complicated because this is also a technology transition away from fossil fuels, and its assimilation rate throughout the economy is accelerating. But when competing businesses, which produce the identical commodity,  such as electricity, begin to diverge radically in terms of their underlying cost structures, winners and losers emerge. One of…

Global energy leaders are gathering to decide whether to release emergency oil reserves as production and export disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict continue to strain global markets. The International Energy Agency hosted G7 energy ministers at its Paris headquarters on Tuesday, where Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that conditions in oil markets have deteriorated in recent days. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted, forcing some producers in the region to curtail output, creating what the agency described…

Global energy leaders are gathering to decide whether to release emergency oil reserves as production and export disruptions tied to the Middle East conflict continue to strain global markets. The International Energy Agency hosted G7 energy ministers at its Paris headquarters on Tuesday, where Executive Director Fatih Birol warned that conditions in oil markets have deteriorated in recent days. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted, forcing some producers in the region to curtail output, creating what the agency described…

The escalation of conflict in the Middle East is a stress test for the region’s carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) projects and how bankable they remain when hydrocarbon operations are disrupted. Because most CCUS projects are linked to oil and gas value chains, the regional pipeline is being repriced as higher risk. Our base case of 20 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) of capture capacity by 2030 now looks unlikely; we expect delays as priorities shift and capital is reallocated, leaving the region tracking closer to our low case…

The U.S. Energy Information Administration sharply revised its oil price outlook in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) based on the growing impact of the Middle East conflict and the near standstill in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude settled at $94 per barrel on March 9, according to the EIA— a roughly 50% surge since the start of the year and the highest level since September 2023. Prices have climbed rapidly as shipments through the Strait of Hormuz slowed dramatically and some Middle East producers began…

Marine fuel supply at the major Middle East bunkering hub of Fujairah has been disrupted after debris from an intercepted drone sparked a fire at an oil storage facility, forcing terminals to halt bunker barge loadings and tightening fuel availability in regional shipping markets. The incident occurred on March 9 when debris from a drone intercepted by UAE air defence systems fell inside the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, triggering a fire that damaged storage infrastructure. Authorities later said the blaze had been contained, but bunker terminals…

Asian benchmark Newcastle coal prices jumped more than 9% to $150/ton (as per BBG data) at the start of the week, as energy flows across the Gulf area remain disrupted and transit through the Strait of Hormuz has significantly slowed. The rise in coal prices is being driven by a broader energy shock, with surging gas prices making coal a more economical substitute fuel for power generators. Last week's IRGC kamikaze drone attack, which shuttered Qatar's massive LNG export facility - responsible for roughly 20% of global supply - has been the driving…

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has warned that a recent spike in oil prices will translate into higher inflation in the UK, with her economic approach centring on calls for the US, Israel and Iran to de-escalate the conflict in the Middle East. In a statement to MPs, Reeves said she called on G7 finance minister, which includes the US administration’s Scott Bessent, for “immediate de-escalation” of the conflict and that she wanted to see vessels safely pass through the Strait of Hormuz after days of disruption.  However, she appeared…

Oil markets are showing cautious optimism as traders bet Donald Trump may soon wind down the conflict. Hormuz Bottleneck Sparks Middle East Mega?Cuts- With the closure of the Strait of Hormuz entering its second week, Middle Eastern producers have started to collectively curb output as laden tankers continue to pile up in the Persian Gulf.- Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates have already slashed their production by as much as 6.7 million b/day, with Iraq taking the lead with a massive 3 million b/day cut.- The Middle East…

Asia is struggling to obtain spot LNG cargoes for emergency supply this month as the halt to Qatar’s exports tightened the market and reignited competition with Europe for promptly available supply.   In the absence of Qatar’s term supply and about 20% of global LNG flows blocked at the Strait of Hormuz, some buyers in South and Southeast Asia who have sought spot cargoes for March have failed to purchase any, sources and officials at key Asian LNG importers told Bloomberg on Tuesday.     Tenders for spot…

Asia is struggling to obtain spot LNG cargoes for emergency supply this month as the halt to Qatar’s exports tightened the market and reignited competition with Europe for promptly available supply.   In the absence of Qatar’s term supply and about 20% of global LNG flows blocked at the Strait of Hormuz, some buyers in South and Southeast Asia who have sought spot cargoes for March have failed to purchase any, sources and officials at key Asian LNG importers told Bloomberg on Tuesday.     Tenders for spot…

US President Donald Trump said the military operation launched against Iran last month will end "very soon" and vowed to hit the country "much, much harder" if it blocks oil supplies in the Middle East. Trump spoke on March 9 after Tehran launched multiple missiles and drones at Israel and Gulf Arab states following the announcement that Mojtaba Khamenei would succeed his late father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, as supreme leader. "We're winning very decisively. We're way ahead of schedule," Trump told a news conference in Florida. "It's going to be…