The Bank of England is expected to hike interest rates as many as four times within the next year, City figures have said, after the economy delivered surprise growth in July.  The central bank is expected to be buoyed by this morning’s GDP figures, which saw the UK economy grow by 0.4 per cent in July despite forecasts that growth would grind to a halt. Andrew Bailey is widely tipped to oversee an interest rate hike in November, economists have said, though his Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to leave rates unchanged when…

The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States rose this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday, with the total rig count in the US rising to 591, up 52 from this same time last year. The number of active oil rigs rose by 1, reaching 450 during the latest reporting period, according to the data. This is 34 above this same time last year. The number of gas rigs rose by 2 to 132, which is 14 more than this time last year. Miscellaneous rigs stayed the same at 9. The latest EIA data showed…

Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West oil pipeline system was struck on Thursday, with multiple pumping stations hit in an attack that could threaten one of the kingdom’s most important crude export routes, according to CNN, citing two U.S. officials familiar with the matter. The confirmation comes after satellite data on Thursday pointed to unusual activity along the pipeline corridor. OilPrice.com reported that NASA FIRMS had detected multiple large fires near the East-West pipeline, while Sentinel-3 imagery appeared to show a massive…

Houthi strikes threaten Saudi oil exports as Brent hits $105 and Middle Eastern crude soars to $120. Friday, September 11, 2026 Houthi strikes on Saudi Arabia’s oil infrastructure have alerted the oil markets to the possibility of seeing even less Middle Eastern supply than before, with potential damage to the East-West pipeline jeopardizing 3-4 million b/d of Saudi crude exports. Whilst the meeting of Gulf foreign ministers over the weekend has poured some cold water on runaway crude prices, ICE Brent at $105 per barrel (and available Middle…

Supertanker rates on the Baltic Exchange's benchmark Middle East-to-China shipping route have surged to a staggering $800,000 a day. With US forces having destroyed five Iranian-linked tankers and Tehran threatening further escalation in recent days, prospects for near-term stabilization remain limited. The freight surge signals that crude oil and refined products continue to flow but are becoming increasingly costly to transport out of the Gulf region to global markets. According to Bloomberg, US Gulf-to-Asia shipments on very large crude carriers…

The IEA just took another 1.4 million barrels per day out of its 2026 global oil supply outlook, and it no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year, according to a new agency report released on Friday. Global oil supply is now expected to fall by 5.7 million bpd in 2026, or roughly 6%, compared with the 4.3-million-bpd decline the agency forecast just one month ago. The delayed recovery of Middle Eastern production has pushed the return of normal Gulf supplies into 2027. Global oil stocks fell at a rate of 3.1 million bpd in August,…

The IEA just took another 1.4 million barrels per day out of its 2026 global oil supply outlook, and it no longer expects normal Gulf flows to return this year, according to a new agency report released on Friday. Global oil supply is now expected to fall by 5.7 million bpd in 2026, or roughly 6%, compared with the 4.3-million-bpd decline the agency forecast just one month ago. The delayed recovery of Middle Eastern production has pushed the return of normal Gulf supplies into 2027. Global oil stocks fell at a rate of 3.1 million bpd in August,…

The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is considering significant changes to its plans to build a massive 5-gigawatt AI data center in Abu Dhabi in partnership with U.S. tech giants, after Iran started targeting American air bases and U.S.-linked critical infrastructure in the Persian Gulf, multiple sources have told Reuters. The UAE, which aims to become not only a regional but also a global leader in AI development and computing, last year planned to build the 5-GW UAE-US AI Campus in Abu Dhabi. The sprawling campus was planned to include 5 GW of capacity…

Claims have been circulating on social media that the United States has only about two weeks of oil left. The calculation appears to compare the 286.6 million barrels currently held in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve with roughly 20.7 million barrels per day of U.S. petroleum demand, producing a figure of about 14 days. But that does not describe how the U.S. petroleum system works, and even the units are mismatched. The SPR holds crude oil, while the 20.7-million-barrel figure represents total petroleum products supplied, a broad proxy for consumption…

Diesel just broke $6 a gallon nationwide for the first time in U.S. history, and Jeff Currie says $5 gasoline is likely to land before midterms.  The founder and CEO of Real Macro, who spent more than a decade running Goldman Sachs’ commodities research desk, told Bloomberg Television on Friday that the odds of average U.S. gasoline hitting $5 a gallon before the November midterms are “extremely high.” AAA data released the same day put the national diesel average at $6.0556, a record that’s up 14 percent in a month…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict Yemen's Houthis captured the Red Sea port of Mocha on Thursday, taking the approach to the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea (and the Suez Canal, beyond it) to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean. Bab al-Mandeb is 12 miles wide and carries 6.2 million barrels of oil and refined products a day (plus ~80% of the LNG shipped north to Europe). Houthi attacks made these waters unsafe for shipping in 2024, and Suez Canal revenue fell more than 60% that year, costing Egypt $7B. Houthi forces also captured…

Every headline number behind Vostok Oil — from the tanker fleet and shipping target to the resource base and flagship well — has failed to survive contact with what Rosneft has actually drilled, built, or shipped. Four trillion rubles into the project, Rosneft has filled a single tanker. The Valentin Pikul spent 84 days moored at Bukhta Sever's single loading berth before its cargo was loaded for the run to China along the Northern Sea Route. Its sister ship, the Akademik Gubkin, is right behind it. Rosneft's own operating plan calls…

October WTI crude oil futures are trading at $101.26 early Friday, up $10.04 or 11.01% for the week so far. The contract traded as low as $90.87 before reaching $104.46, its strongest level since May. Last week, the market was testing whether escorted cargoes and alternate routes could keep enough Gulf oil moving to reduce the war premium. This week, tanker attacks increased around the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi energy facilities came under attack, and the supply threat spread toward the Red Sea. WTI did not break $100 because every Middle East barrel…

Crude oil prices are poised for further increases and the trending trajectory is higher, as global inventory drawdowns have accelerated and China is back to buying significantly higher crude oil volumes than in the spring, Energy Aspects founder and market intelligence director, Amrita Sen, told CNBC on Friday. The intensified shipping risks in the Middle East with tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and the Houthi threat in the Red Sea are hampering crude oil supply to Asian refiners. If Hormuz cancellations and delays persist, the only option…

China is on track to import roughly the same volumes of crude oil in September as it did in August, extending the trend of recovering shipments just as crude oil prices soared to above $100 per barrel again. Kpler’s preliminary vessel-tracking data puts Chinese crude imports at about 7.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for September, about the same as in August, Nikkei Asia reports. The September-arriving crude cargoes were bought at prices well below $100 per barrel, but the gradual recovery of Chinese purchases from the decade-low in June…

China is on track to import roughly the same volumes of crude oil in September as it did in August, extending the trend of recovering shipments just as crude oil prices soared to above $100 per barrel again. Kpler’s preliminary vessel-tracking data puts Chinese crude imports at about 7.2 million barrels per day (bpd) for September, about the same as in August, Nikkei Asia reports. The September-arriving crude cargoes were bought at prices well below $100 per barrel, but the gradual recovery of Chinese purchases from the decade-low in June…

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slumped to single digits on Thursday, down from a 10-day average of 15 vessels that transited the chokepoint in both directions, Reuters reports, citing preliminary vessel-tracking data by Kpler as of early Friday. Only seven vessels, two outbound and five inbound, transited the Strait of Hormuz over the past 24 hours, per the data, which tracks only ships with positioning systems switched on. Dark transits are believed to be much higher as vessel operators and commodity buyers prefer to switch off their…

Demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Southeast Asia has found a new major driver apart from the years-long efforts to switch away from coal-fired power generation. The AI boom and the data center construction in Asia are set to materially change Southeast Asia’s LNG demand outlook with a significant upside, as combined-cycle gas turbines (CCGT) remain the most reliable 24/7 power provider for hyperscalers amid relatively immature renewable energy-plus-batteries across the region, analysts at Wood Mackenzie say. As a result of the higher…

U.S. President Donald Trump has undertaken the most aggressive federal intervention in the critical minerals and rare earth sectors ever since he returned to the Oval Office, announcing a flurry of deals as Washington desperately tries to counter China’s dominance in minerals that are powering the energy transition and AI boom. The deals included a hodgepodge of equity and debt packages with dozens of rare earths companies, with MP Materials (NYSE:MP) and U.S. Rare Earths (NASDAQ:USAR) some of the key beneficiaries. Last month, Trump unveiled…

Mexico’s government is slashing financial assistance for the state energy major by as much as 70% despite Pemex’s continued struggle to pay down debt and boost production. The decision rests on expectations that the company will benefit from the oil and gas price rally spurred by the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran. Per a Bloomberg report from this week, the government of Mexico sees Pemex posting a rare cash surplus of some 95 billion pesos, or around $5.63 billion, as a result of the oil price rally. Based on those expectations,…