As I will explain, the outcome that looks like losing may actually be the best path forward for the world’s remaining economies. The fighting today is with respect to which parts of the world will get which energy resources, and at what prices. Even before the current conflict, there was a shortage of jet fuel and diesel. The only reasonable outcome I can think of is that the US will only be able to tap its own energy resources, plus those of its nearby neighbors (Figure 1). Consequently, the economy will gradually reorganize in ways that…

For the first time in weeks, Donald Trump failed to cool oil markets, as escalating tensions with Iran crushed ceasefire hopes and reignited bullish momentum. Friday, April 03, 2026 For the first time in many weeks, US President Trump couldn’t contain a late-week price surge as escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran dulled market bears’ expectations of a ceasefire anytime soon. WTI soared this week and is on par with ICE Brent (even if they trade different months), physical benchmarks above $140 per barrel bring back memories…

Operations at the Habshan gas facilities, the biggest gas processing site in the United Arab Emirates, were suspended early on Friday following a fire that erupted after an attack, Abu Dhabi Media Office said. The Habshan onshore facilities are part of one of the world's largest gas processing plants, which is operated by Abu Dhabi's national oil company ADNOC. The five plants of the vast Habshan Complex have 14 processing trains and 6.1 bscfd capacity, according to the company. This is the second time operations at Habshan have been suspended…

President Donald Trump said the US military "hasn't even started" to destroy what is left of Iran after a month of devastating air attacks and he threatened to strike electrical power plants and more bridges in his latest warning to the regime in Tehran. "Our Military, the greatest and most powerful (by far!) anywhere in the World, hasn’t even started destroying what’s left in Iran. Bridges next, then Electric Power Plants! New Regime leadership knows what has to be done, and has to be done, FAST!," Trump wrote on Truth Social late…

A sanctioned tanker carrying Iranian crude has abruptly changed destination from a port on India's west coast to an import terminal in China, in a move suggesting that India would not be imminently importing its first crude from Iran in seven years. The crude tanker Ping Shun, which the United States sanctioned last year for dealing with Iranian crude, signaled earlier this week that it was headed to the port of Vadinar on the west coast of India. However, the latest positioning of the Ping Shun, at least according to its AIS tracker, signals it…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict The Sharara pipeline was hit in Libya’s southwest, and that location explains the attack. This is not territory firmly controlled by either Khalifa Haftar or Abdul Hamid Dbeibah. Haftar’s forces are anchored in the east, Dbeibah’s authority is in and around Tripoli, and the northwest. The corridor linking Sharara to Zawiya runs through the Murzuq basin, where control is fragmented. Local militias and tribal groups handle security around the National Oil Corporation infrastructure but operate…

Trump entered office promising to avoid new wars. The U.S. is now engaged in an expanding conflict with Iran that has spiralled out of control, and the administration has not clearly defined what constitutes success or how the war ends. Further eroding confidence, late on Thursday, in the middle of a war, the U.S. Defense Secretary has forced the resignation of Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George and two other senior officers, Gen. David Hodne and Maj. Gen. William Green Jr., in what is now one of the most significant wartime leadership changes…

May WTI crude oil surged sharply in the holiday-shortened week ending April 3, settling at $111.54, up $11.90 or +11.94%. The move was driven by a combination of geopolitical escalation, supply disruption risks, and growing concerns about global oil infrastructure security. Traders were forced to rapidly reprice risk, with volatility spiking across the energy complex as headlines intensified into the close. War Risk and Supply Shock Drive Breakout The dominant catalyst behind this week’s rally was the rapid escalation in tensions between…

China plans to phase out some of its outdated petrochemical plants by 2029 and upgrade others, under new directives issued by the authorities on Friday. The Chinese authorities will review which facilities will be upgraded and which will be closed, using lists of outdated petrochemical plants compiled by local governments in recent months, according to documents by the central government cited by Reuters. China and its refiners and petrochemical producers have been struggling with low margins amid overcapacity and falling demand for road transportation…

The price of Canada’s synthetic crude, which has rich diesel yield for refiners, has surged by nearly 200% since March 27 as the Middle East war cripples global diesel supply and sends diesel futures, cracks, and retail prices soaring. The synthetic crude made from processing of bitumen from Alberta’s oil sands is very low sulfur and its chemical content makes it highly suitable for processing into jet fuel and diesel—the most stressed barrels amid the worst disruption to supply in the history of the oil market. Canada’s…

The price of Canada’s synthetic crude, which has rich diesel yield for refiners, has surged by nearly 200% since March 27 as the Middle East war cripples global diesel supply and sends diesel futures, cracks, and retail prices soaring. The synthetic crude made from processing of bitumen from Alberta’s oil sands is very low sulfur and its chemical content makes it highly suitable for processing into jet fuel and diesel—the most stressed barrels amid the worst disruption to supply in the history of the oil market. Canada’s…

Oil prices could top $150 per barrel if energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted through the middle of May, according to JP Morgan. Prices are headed to $120-$130 per barrel in the very near term, the investment bank said in a note carried by Reuters. At Thursday’s close, oil prices surged, with the U.S. benchmark WTI Crude soaring past Brent Crude and settling at $111.50 per barrel. The international benchmark closed at $109 a barrel on Thursday, the last trading day of this week, as markets are closed on Good Friday. JP…

Oil markets reversed their recent downtrend on Thursday, with oil prices surging after President Donald Trump declared that the U.S. would continue to hit Iran "extremely hard" for the next two to three weeks. Trump warned that he would hit all of Iran's electric generating plants if a deal is not reached, sending the country back to the Stone Age. Trump’s bellicosity marks a sudden shift in policy, suggesting that securing the Strait of Hormuz is no longer Washington’s top priority. Brent crude for May delivery was up 7.58% to trade…

Nano Nuclear submitted a Construction Permit Application (CPA) to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for their Kronos microreactor project at the University of Illinois. The filing marks the latest step in a project we’ve tracked since site characterization began last fall. Kronos is a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) engineered for commercial deployment. It delivers 15 megawatts of carbon-free baseload power using meltdown-resistant TRISO fuel and helium coolant. The design emphasizes walk-away safety, autonomous operation…

Soaring jet fuel prices have hit the profitability of airlines, who have started raising air fares and grounding flights to contain the fallout from the Iran war, which has more than doubled aviation fuel prices over the past month. Oil and jet fuel supplies are constrained as crude and petroleum products are trapped at the Strait of Hormuz, forcing Asian refiners to cut run rates and Asian countries to restrict or ban exports to preserve domestic supply. Jet Fuel Shock The product market came under more severe stress than the crude markets as…

The effective blockage of the Strait of Hormuz has thrown the world’s continued dependence on fossil fuels into sharp relief. The interruption to the waterway, which accommodates one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas, has thrown global energy markets into turmoil. The blockage represents the single-largest interruption to global oil trade in history. But it’s not causing nearly as much pain as past oil crises thanks to a much more diverse global energy mix. “There is little sign that the war with Iran will cause the kind…

Artificial intelligence companies were top of the list in mergers and acquisitions—including fundraisers—over the first quarter of the year as activity in the field remained unbothered by the war in the Middle East and the energy crunch it caused. The first-quarter M&A deal data, as reported by Reuters, suggests that investors are not following short-term developments linked to the war but are taking a longer-term view and a new resilience to shocks. “We have seen a series of market disruptions over the last couple of years…

The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States rose this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Thursday, bringing the total rig count in the US to 548, down 42 from this same time last year. The number of active oil rigs rose by 2 to 411 during the latest reporting period, according to the data. This is 70 below this same time last year. The number of gas rigs rose by 3, reaching 130, which is 26 more than this time last year. The miscellaneous rig count stayed the same at 7. The latest EIA data…

OPEC+ is preparing to weigh another output increase this Sunday as the world’s most critical oil artery remains effectively shut. Eight core members of the group are expected to discuss raising production again after agreeing to a 206,000 bpd increase for April. Two OPEC+ sources told Reuters that the group is likely to move forward with another hike on paper, positioning itself to add barrels quickly if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. More than 20% of global oil flows normally pass through Hormuz. That flow is now constrained by the U.S.-Israeli…

OPEC+ is preparing to weigh another output increase this Sunday as the world’s most critical oil artery remains effectively shut. Eight core members of the group are expected to discuss raising production again after agreeing to a 206,000 bpd increase for April. Two OPEC+ sources told Reuters that the group is likely to move forward with another hike on paper, positioning itself to add barrels quickly if the Strait of Hormuz reopens. More than 20% of global oil flows normally pass through Hormuz. That flow is now constrained by the U.S.-Israeli…