Turkey wants nearly 200 countries attending COP31 to commit to increasing electricity's share of global energy consumption to 35% by 2035, up from roughly 20% today. The proposed pledge, however, contains no requirement to actually reduce fossil fuel consumption. That distinction is attracting attention as climate negotiators gather in Antalya to discuss how quickly the world should move away from oil, gas and coal. Turkey's proposal would measure progress by the percentage of final energy demand supplied by electricity. It does not specify how…

The 2026 US midterm elections have delivered a significant political setback to President Donald Trump, but their implications for US policy and global energy markets are far from straightforward. Democratic control of Congress will constrain the administration's domestic legislative agenda and yet leave considerable presidential discretion over foreign policy. The outcome closely matches Scenario C of our 5 October outlook: legislative gridlock at home, greater congressional influence over spending and appointments, and potentially increased reliance…

Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted refineries representing roughly 30% of Russia's total oil-processing capacity since late October, dealing another blow to Moscow's fuel supplies just as it attempts to increase diesel exports under a controversial agreement with Washington. Nine of Russia's 35 major refineries experienced disruptions over the past week, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing industry sources and officials. The affected facilities have a combined nameplate capacity of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day, compared with Russia's…

No country aside from Iran itself has felt the economic consequences of the U.S./Israel-Iran war more than Iraq. Over 90 percent of its annual budget historically comes from oil and around 95 percent of that historically had to pass through the Strait of Hormuz before it could be monetised. When Iran closed the strait on the first day of ‘Operation Epic Fury’, that vital oil transit route was shut to neighbouring Iraq, and its critical financial lifeline along with it. A temporary agreement was reached on 17 March between Tehran and…

Ukrainian drone strikes have disrupted refineries representing roughly 30% of Russia's total oil-processing capacity since late October, dealing another blow to Moscow's fuel supplies just as it attempts to increase diesel exports under a controversial agreement with Washington. Nine of Russia's 35 major refineries experienced disruptions over the past week, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing industry sources and officials. The affected facilities have a combined nameplate capacity of approximately 2.2 million barrels per day, compared with Russia's…

Brent crude briefly falls below $90 as hopes of diplomatic breakthroughs in Iran and Ukraine accelerate the oil market selloff. Crude Says Peace, Tanker Rates Say Not So Fast - Crude oil prices have plunged by almost $30 per barrel since the US midterm elections, however, stubbornly high freight rates in the Gulf suggest not every segment of the oil markets deems the US-Iran war to be ‘effectively over’.     - The cost of chartering a VLCC for a voyage from the Persian Gulf to China has dipped only marginally over the…

The average price of regular gasoline in the United States dropped below $4 per gallon for the first time since the middle of July, amid a decline in international crude oil prices and a seasonal drop in demand.  As of early Tuesday, the national average gasoline price stood at $3.9788 per gallon, according to AAA data. That’s down from $4.1493 a week ago and from $4.3669 per gallon a month ago, but well above the seasonal norms.  At this time last year, the national average gasoline price was about a dollar lower, at $3.0707 a…

China’s coal importers are resisting attempts by Indonesian exporters to include waiver clauses in the new supply contracts to free them from strict delivery volumes if the Indonesian government decides to restrict export or output quotas again, sources familiar with the negotiations have told Bloomberg. Indonesia, which is the world’s biggest exporter of thermal coal, has changed its production and export policies several times this year, stifling international shipments and forcing China, the world’s top coal consumer, to tweak…

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to drop by 0.4% in 2026 from a year earlier, due to the oil shock from the Iran war and increased solar and wind power generation, new research by the Global Carbon Project showed on Tuesday.  The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.2 billion tons of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year, down by 0.4% from last year, amid a slump in emissions from oil as a result of the Hormuz trade and energy price shock, the scientists behind the project said.  “Emissions…

After fading into the background when the war with Iran began, the US diplomatic push to end Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is intensifying again, with the first US-Ukraine-Russia talks since February scheduled for November 10-11 in Abu Dhabi. On the eve of the talks, US President Donald Trump said on the CBS program 60 Minutes that he believes “we’re very close to a deal” and that the war is “going to end soon.” Nevertheless, expectations of a breakthrough at the negotiations this week are low. Here are five reasons…

Global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are expected to drop by 0.4% in 2026 from a year earlier, due to the oil shock from the Iran war and increased solar and wind power generation, new research by the Global Carbon Project showed on Tuesday.  The 2026 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.2 billion tons of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year, down by 0.4% from last year, amid a slump in emissions from oil as a result of the Hormuz trade and energy price shock, the scientists behind the project said.  “Emissions…

The Hamburg-based International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea on Tuesday begins hearings of Argentina’s complaint about the UK’s oil drilling project north of the Falkland Islands, which Argentinian President Javier Milei claims is unlawful amid a recently revived row with Britain over who controls the Falklands.  The Sea Lion oil field is operated by Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd (NPDP), a UK-based fully owned subsidiary of Israeli Navitas Petroleum, and its British partner Rockhopper Exploration.  The…

The Hamburg-based International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea on Tuesday begins hearings of Argentina’s complaint about the UK’s oil drilling project north of the Falkland Islands, which Argentinian President Javier Milei claims is unlawful amid a recently revived row with Britain over who controls the Falklands.  The Sea Lion oil field is operated by Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd (NPDP), a UK-based fully owned subsidiary of Israeli Navitas Petroleum, and its British partner Rockhopper Exploration.  The…

The Hamburg-based International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea on Tuesday begins hearings of Argentina’s complaint about the UK’s oil drilling project north of the Falkland Islands, which Argentinian President Javier Milei claims is unlawful amid a recently revived row with Britain over who controls the Falklands.  The Sea Lion oil field is operated by Navitas Petroleum Development and Production Ltd (NPDP), a UK-based fully owned subsidiary of Israeli Navitas Petroleum, and its British partner Rockhopper Exploration.  The…

The U.S. Army has signed a non-binding term sheet with REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) to build the first-ever commercial rare earth processing operation on a U.S. military installation. The plan covers 200 acres at Tooele Army Depot in Utah, a lease that could run as long as 75 years, and provides first access for the Army to the rare earth products produced at this facility. Those metals are dysprosium and terbium. Every F-35, Tomahawk missile, and Virginia-class submarine depends on magnets made with them, and China produces nearly every ounce of both.…

The U.S. Army has signed a non-binding term sheet with REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) to build the first-ever commercial rare earth processing operation on a U.S. military installation. The plan covers 200 acres at Tooele Army Depot in Utah, a lease that could run as long as 75 years, and provides first access for the Army to the rare earth products produced at this facility. Those metals are dysprosium and terbium. Every F-35, Tomahawk missile, and Virginia-class submarine depends on magnets made with them, and China produces nearly every ounce of both.…

Two tankers carrying Russian diesel have diverted from their intended American destinations, while another remains in the North Atlantic without a declared unloading port, complicating President Donald Trump’s agreement with Vladimir Putin to ease fuel prices. The Treasury has authorized Russian diesel transactions, but lawmakers warn that companies handling U.S. imports could still violate a congressional ban. The Russian tanker Talisman and Sierra Leone-flagged Leruo departed the Baltic port of Primorsk in October, initially declaring destinations…

China will once again be the biggest investor this year in alternative energy sources, spending some $940 billion on capacity and infrastructure. While still spending substantial sums on capacity, China will this year spend more on grid expansion and support infrastructure in a much-needed change of priorities. The figure above comes from the Global Energy Transition Report released this month by the China Enterprise Reform and Development Society, a state-linked think tank. According to the report, as of the end of 2025, China’s installed…

Scientists have made a surprising discovery that could slash the amount of energy used in oil refining by eliminating part of the high-temperature heating process required to separate the fractions of crude oil. The scientific breakthrough has found a simple and inexpensive way to separate crude oil molecules through a polymer membrane, radically different from previous attempts to fractionate crude oil via membranes. In previous studies of membrane-based fractionations, scientists believed a selective layer should be coated onto the surface to…

Sudan Is a U.S. National Security Interest, Not Just a Humanitarian Crisis by James Durso Sudan’s devastating civil war is often described as a humanitarian catastrophe. It is that, unquestionably, but for the United States, the conflict is also a strategic challenge involving Red Sea security, Iran’s regional influence, counterterrorism, international trade, and access to critical minerals. Washington should not treat Sudan as a distant crisis to be dealt with after more pressing matters. Its outcome will affect the security of a strategically…