July WTI crude oil delivered a volatile week as traders aggressively repriced geopolitical risk and then rapidly removed part of that premium on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran. Through Thursday, May 21, July WTI posted a high of $105.21, a low of $95.76, and settled at $97.77, up $3.39, or 3.35%, for the week. The price action told a much bigger story than the weekly gain itself. Crude spent the early part of the week climbing sharply as traders focused on supply disruptions tied to Iran and the continuing…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict The biggest (and only, really) takeaway from the Trump-Xi meeting is that, as we mentioned last week and the week prior, this is all about Taiwan. All eyes are now on the $14-billion Taiwan arms package that Trump suddenly appears willing to drag his feet on, raising immediate questions about how far Washington is prepared to bend. Trump’s refusal to immediately approve the already Congress-cleared package, combined with his repeated emphasis on having an “amazing” meeting with Xi, is creating…

All the Hormuz chaos is giving Egypt another chance to become a gas hub. In the immediate term, Egypt is taking a hit, but the conflict is strengthening Cairo’s long-term East-Med gas position.  Right now, the Iran conflict means that Egypt has an immediate supply problem. Israeli gas exports to Egypt were disrupted after the conflict escalated, removing roughly 1.1 billion cubic feet per day from the Egyptian market. And domestic output was already under pressure amid rising electricity demand. Cairo has been forced to increase LNG…

A supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude is set to arrive in Japan early next week after clearing the Strait of Hormuz in late April, in the first shipment of Middle East crude to Japan via the chokepoint since the Iran war began on February 28. The very large crude carrier (VLCC) Idemitsu Maru, which had departed from Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura port in the Persian Gulf in mid-March, is expected to arrive in Nagoya on May 25, data on MarineTraffic showed. As of early Friday, the supertanker was close to the coasts of Japan.…

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged the government to urgently explore an increase in the use of alternative energy sources, including biogas as a substitute for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), as the Middle East crisis is choking oil and gas supply to the world’s third-largest crude importer. Modi also urged ministers to move faster with implementing reforms to turn India into a developed nation by 2047, the goal for its 100th independence anniversary. India has been grappling with the energy crisis that the Iran war created.…

Risks to oil prices are firmly skewed higher amid plunging global oil inventories in the worst supply disruption in history, according to Barclays. The investment bank on Friday kept its $100 per barrel Brent forecast for 2026, but warned that the risks are skewed to the upside as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been draining U.S. and global inventories to multi-year lows.   “Inventory trends are signaling a 6-8 (million bpd) deficit with the U.S. inventories within reach of the lowest levels since 2020,” analysts at Barclays…

India’s power generation rose to a new all-time high amid hot weather that drove air-conditioning demand up, with thermal generation, most of its coming from coal power plants, covering 62% of demand. Power demand on Thursday hit 271 GW, on the “fourth consecutive day when the peak power demand (solar hours) reached a new all-time high,” India’s power ministry said, as quoted by AFP. After milder temperatures tempered demand growth in the fiscal year to March 2026 to the lowest level in six years, demand is now beating peak…

India’s power generation rose to a new all-time high amid hot weather that drove air-conditioning demand up, with thermal generation, most of its coming from coal power plants, covering 62% of demand. Power demand on Thursday hit 271 GW, on the “fourth consecutive day when the peak power demand (solar hours) reached a new all-time high,” India’s power ministry said, as quoted by AFP. After milder temperatures tempered demand growth in the fiscal year to March 2026 to the lowest level in six years, demand is now beating peak…

Saudi crude exports have been falling since the US- Iran war began, but the latest slide is no longer just a story of disrupted trade routes. Cargoes scheduled to sail from Saudi Arabia in May are now assessed at roughly 3.9 million b/d (historic lows), while almost every major Saudi buyer – China, Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan – is cutting nominations for the months ahead. China, still Saudi Aramco’s largest customer, is expected to take only about 600,000 b/d of Saudi crude in June, roughly half April’s volume.…

Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has explicitly linked oil exploration and rare-earth mining to Brazil's national sovereignty, declaring that the country’s subsoil resources must be used to drive domestic industrialization rather than enrich foreign nations. Speaking at Petrobras’(NYSE:PBR) giant refinery, Refinaria de Paulínia (Replan), in São Paulo, Lula emphasized that Brazil must actively extract its natural resources in a bid to secure its geopolitical and economic future.  Defying foreign…

The oil market still looks surprisingly calm for a system that has spent nearly three months absorbing the largest supply disruption in modern history. That should probably make people nervous. Because underneath the headline inventory numbers, the market has gone from adding barrels to burning through them. And lately, it has been using emergency reserves to help keep the machinery running. The inventory picture still looks comfortable if you zoom out far enough. According to Oilprice.com's analysis of weekly API data, U.S. commercial crude inventories…

For years, green hydrogen has been touted as a kind of silver bullet for decarbonization. Hydrogen can be combusted at high temperatures, making it a potential solution for cleaning up some of the dirtiest industrial sectors on earth, with the ability to replace thermal coal in steelmaking and heavy fuel oil in industrial shipping. But instead of releasing greenhouse gases when burned, hydrogen leaves behind nothing but water vapor. Green hydrogen has therefore been a subject of major buzz in the public and private sectors alike for its ability…

Britain is tightening another screw on its oil and gas sector, this time by closing a tax structure that officials say allowed multinational energy firms to sharply reduce taxes on profits generated from UK operations. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said Thursday the government will end a practice allowing losses from foreign branches to offset taxable UK profits, a move she said was being used by some oil and gas companies to pay "little or no corporation tax" on British energy trading income. "Today we're putting an end to that practice," Reeves…

U.S. shale oil producers are boosting output in response to the energy crunch caused by the war in the Middle East. Exports are running at all-time highs. The media are celebrating the country’s energy dominance. But there are limits to what the U.S. energy industry can do and how long it can keep doing it. Drillers across the shale patch have been adding rigs again in what is an obvious sign of changing sentiment in an industry that has focused on caution and capital discipline for years now. But with the U.S.-Iran war driving benchmarks…

Britain is tightening another screw on its oil and gas sector, this time by closing a tax structure that officials say allowed multinational energy firms to sharply reduce taxes on profits generated from UK operations. Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said Thursday the government will end a practice allowing losses from foreign branches to offset taxable UK profits, a move she said was being used by some oil and gas companies to pay "little or no corporation tax" on British energy trading income. "Today we're putting an end to that practice," Reeves…

Norway’s oil industry is entering a new phase where infrastructure utilization, subsea tie-backs, and recovery rates could matter more than giant new discoveries. Equinor and Aker BP on Thursday released a new cooperation announcement aimed at deepening collaboration across parts of the Norwegian continental shelf (NCS). At first glance, the agreement looks highly technical. But the two companies said the cooperation is designed to accelerate developments, improve resource recovery, and unlock more value from existing offshore infrastructure.…

The oil market is heading into what Fatih Birol calls the "red zone" this summer. Speaking Thursday at Chatham House in London, Birol warned that rapidly falling inventories, missing Middle Eastern exports, and rising summer demand could push global oil markets into dangerous territory by July or August. "This may be difficult and we may be entering the red zone in July-August if we don't see some improvements," Birol said. And unlike some earlier warnings that felt a bit theoretical, the inventory data increasingly suggest he may actually have…

The oil market is heading into what Fatih Birol calls the "red zone" this summer. Speaking Thursday at Chatham House in London, Birol warned that rapidly falling inventories, missing Middle Eastern exports, and rising summer demand could push global oil markets into dangerous territory by July or August. "This may be difficult and we may be entering the red zone in July-August if we don't see some improvements," Birol said. And unlike some earlier warnings that felt a bit theoretical, the inventory data increasingly suggest he may actually have…

The oil market is heading into what Fatih Birol calls the "red zone" this summer. Speaking Thursday at Chatham House in London, Birol warned that rapidly falling inventories, missing Middle Eastern exports, and rising summer demand could push global oil markets into dangerous territory by July or August. "This may be difficult and we may be entering the red zone in July-August if we don't see some improvements," Birol said. And unlike some earlier warnings that felt a bit theoretical, the inventory data increasingly suggest he may actually have…

It still seems that oil markets are believing their own theories more than hard-hitting warnings from Arab national oil companies. Even with all signs on red, optimism still shows oil prices as depressed, not really reflecting reality at all. When Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Abu Dhabi National Oil Company’s CEO, and more or less one of the most outspoken visionaries in the Gulf, publicly warns that oil flows from the Persian Gulf will remain severely disrupted until at least mid-2027, markets, traders, and financials should pay attention and act.…