The global oil market has been on a rollercoaster since late February, but the price reaction to the largest supply disruption in history has been relatively muted. The calm was not complacency; buffers were there to absorb the shock. But the system that held for four weeks is no longer the system we are operating in today. The oil market did not underreact to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz; it absorbed it. For nearly four weeks, markets have shown remarkable resilience in the face of disruption, supported by a combination of pre-war surplus,…

A sharp rise in oil prices tied to the US-Israel confrontation with Iran is likely to speed up the global transition to electric vehicles, strengthening a shift that has already helped China overtake Japan as the world’s top car seller, according to South China Morning Post. Crude prices have surged past $100 a barrel amid fears of disruption to energy supplies, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump escalated tensions by warning he would “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if shipping through…

Aker BP’s 2025 Annual Report confirms what the market has been sensing for months: this was not a peak year—it was a transition year.Production held firm, costs remained low, and shareholder payouts continued. But weaker realized oil prices and impairments drove a sharp drop in earnings, even as the company doubled down on a capital-intensive growth pipeline aimed at the late 2020s. Production Holds, But Growth PausesAker BP delivered 420.1 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboepd) in 2025, landing at the top end of guidance.…

Aker BP’s 2025 Annual Report confirms what the market has been sensing for months: this was not a peak year—it was a transition year.Production held firm, costs remained low, and shareholder payouts continued. But weaker realized oil prices and impairments drove a sharp drop in earnings, even as the company doubled down on a capital-intensive growth pipeline aimed at the late 2020s. Production Holds, But Growth PausesAker BP delivered 420.1 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (mboepd) in 2025, landing at the top end of guidance.…

All the bombs dropped by the United States and Israel over the past four weeks on Iran have not disrupted a key trade route with Russia that both Tehran and Moscow rely on to help keep their respective war efforts going. And Azerbaijan, despite its strong ties to both the United States and Israel, has played a crucial role in keeping the route open. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexey Overchuk, in comments published by the Interfax news agency on March 25, said the “western branch” of the North-South trade corridor continued to operate…

The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States fell this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday, bringing the total rig count in the US to 543, down 49 from this same time last year. The number of active oil rigs fell by 5 to 409 during the latest reporting period, according to the data. This is 75 below this same time last year. The number of gas rigs fell by 4, sinking to 127, which is 24 more than this time last year. The miscellaneous rig count stayed the same at 7. The latest EIA data…

Serica Energy has urged the government to prioritise domestic production in the North Sea, as oil and gas supplies continued to be held in the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war in its latest annual results. Serica noted that confidence in the UK North Sea sector had been “eroded” and while the government has undertaken consultations, it is yet to be “translated into actions”. The company called on the government to approve the development of new oil and gas fields in order to reduce the risks of future oil and gas crises…

Asian refiners have started pricing their orders for U.S. crude oil against the ICE Brent benchmark instead of the typical pricing on Dubai crude, as the Middle Eastern benchmark has seen wild fluctuations amid choked physical supply from the Persian Gulf. Dubai crude prices soared last week to an all-time high of $169.75 per barrel, and were at $129.99 a barrel early on Friday. These highly volatile prices and the uncertainty about supply from the Middle East have prompted refiners in Asia to seek pricing against Brent, instead of the Dubai benchmark…

Oil markets are being driven by the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran rejecting U.S. terms and delays in negotiations pushing Brent back above $110. Friday, March 27, 2026 The closure of the Hormuz Strait against Donald Trump’s hopes for constructive negotiations, such is the main price-defining relationship this week for oil markets. In a somewhat peculiar fashion, prices reacted immediately to Trump’s first 5-day deadline extension, however today’s 10-day postponement triggered a spike that sent ICE Brent above $110…

Caught in the crossfire of the United States and Israel's war with Iran, America's allies in the Persian Gulf face a stark choice: maintain their defensive posture or join the fight against the Islamic Republic. Iran has fired thousands of drones and missiles at US military and diplomatic facilities and damaged key energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait since the war began on February 28. By choking off the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for global oil and gas supplies, Tehran has also…

Nearby WTI crude oil spent the week ending March 27 in a trader’s market, with headlines on U.S.-Iran diplomacy driving sharp intraday swings and keeping risk premium firmly tied to geopolitics. As of late Thursday, nearby WTI was trading at $94.30, down $3.93, or 4.00%, for the week. That weekly loss, however, hides the real story. Price action was violent in both directions as traders tried to price the odds of a ceasefire against the reality that the Strait of Hormuz remains the key chokepoint in the global oil system. Reuters reported…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict Governments moved again this week to release and build oil reserves as the supply shock from the Iran war deepened and the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained. Japan began releasing about one month of state-held crude, adding to earlier draws from private stockpiles, while the United States is already in the middle of one of its largest-ever Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases to contain price spikes. At the global level, the International Energy Agency confirmed that more than 400 million barrels are being…

If Trump’s push for a negotiated end to the war with Iran fails, there are few options that deliver immediate economic impact without expanding the fight inland. Seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s main offshore oil export terminal, is one of them. Trump has now paused strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure twice, to April 6, claiming it is intended as a window for negotiations that Tehran requested. He’s afraid to give away this leverage right now. At the same time, indirect communication is now confirmed, with Pakistan relaying…

Surging LNG prices amid the war in the Middle East are set to lead to the lowest monthly LNG imports into China in eight years as Qatari and UAE supply is off the market and Chinese buyers look to raise supply from domestic gas production and pipeline deliveries. China is on track to import about 3.7 million tons of LNG in March, per tanker-tracking data by Kpler cited by Bloomberg. That would be the lowest monthly import level in the world’s top LNG importer since the spring of 2018, as well as a 25% slump compared to March 2025, according…

Surging LNG prices amid the war in the Middle East are set to lead to the lowest monthly LNG imports into China in eight years as Qatari and UAE supply is off the market and Chinese buyers look to raise supply from domestic gas production and pipeline deliveries. China is on track to import about 3.7 million tons of LNG in March, per tanker-tracking data by Kpler cited by Bloomberg. That would be the lowest monthly import level in the world’s top LNG importer since the spring of 2018, as well as a 25% slump compared to March 2025, according…

Oil prices could hit a record $200 per barrel if the war in the Middle East drags on through the entire second quarter, analysts at Macquarie Group have warned.  The odds of the Iran war dragging on until June were put at 40% by the analysts in a note carried by Bloomberg. But the scenario of the war ending by the end of March currently appears more plausible, with odds at 60%, according to Macquarie.    “If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically…

Oil prices could hit a record $200 per barrel if the war in the Middle East drags on through the entire second quarter, analysts at Macquarie Group have warned.  The odds of the Iran war dragging on until June were put at 40% by the analysts in a note carried by Bloomberg. But the scenario of the war ending by the end of March currently appears more plausible, with odds at 60%, according to Macquarie.    “If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically…

India on Friday moved to protect its fuel supply and consumers by reducing domestic taxes on gasoline and diesel and imposing a levy on fuel exports. In view of the West Asia crisis, the central excise duty on petrol and diesel for domestic consumption has been reduced by 10 rupees ($0.11) per liter each, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a post on X today. “This will provide protection to consumers from rise in prices,” the minister added.  In addition, India also imposes duties on exports of diesel and jet fuel, at…

India on Friday moved to protect its fuel supply and consumers by reducing domestic taxes on gasoline and diesel and imposing a levy on fuel exports. In view of the West Asia crisis, the central excise duty on petrol and diesel for domestic consumption has been reduced by 10 rupees ($0.11) per liter each, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a post on X today. “This will provide protection to consumers from rise in prices,” the minister added.  In addition, India also imposes duties on exports of diesel and jet fuel, at…

European natural gas futures climbed toward €55/MWh on Thursday, snapping a four-day losing streak due to uncertainty over a Middle East ceasefire and ongoing threats to energy infrastructure. Initial hopes for a Middle East ceasefire quickly faded after Iran rejected Washington’s 15-point peace proposal and outlined its own conditions instead. Damage to Gulf energy infrastructure has been extensive, with approximately 40 energy assets across the Gulf having been attacked. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced rerouting…