Serica Energy has urged the government to prioritise domestic production in the North Sea, as oil and gas supplies continued to be held in the Strait of Hormuz amid the Iran war in its latest annual results. Serica noted that confidence in the UK North Sea sector had been “eroded” and while the government has undertaken consultations, it is yet to be “translated into actions”. The company called on the government to approve the development of new oil and gas fields in order to reduce the risks of future oil and gas crises…

Asian refiners have started pricing their orders for U.S. crude oil against the ICE Brent benchmark instead of the typical pricing on Dubai crude, as the Middle Eastern benchmark has seen wild fluctuations amid choked physical supply from the Persian Gulf. Dubai crude prices soared last week to an all-time high of $169.75 per barrel, and were at $129.99 a barrel early on Friday. These highly volatile prices and the uncertainty about supply from the Middle East have prompted refiners in Asia to seek pricing against Brent, instead of the Dubai benchmark…

Oil markets are being driven by the standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran rejecting U.S. terms and delays in negotiations pushing Brent back above $110. Friday, March 27, 2026 The closure of the Hormuz Strait against Donald Trump’s hopes for constructive negotiations, such is the main price-defining relationship this week for oil markets. In a somewhat peculiar fashion, prices reacted immediately to Trump’s first 5-day deadline extension, however today’s 10-day postponement triggered a spike that sent ICE Brent above $110…

Caught in the crossfire of the United States and Israel's war with Iran, America's allies in the Persian Gulf face a stark choice: maintain their defensive posture or join the fight against the Islamic Republic. Iran has fired thousands of drones and missiles at US military and diplomatic facilities and damaged key energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait since the war began on February 28. By choking off the Strait of Hormuz, a major artery for global oil and gas supplies, Tehran has also…

Nearby WTI crude oil spent the week ending March 27 in a trader’s market, with headlines on U.S.-Iran diplomacy driving sharp intraday swings and keeping risk premium firmly tied to geopolitics. As of late Thursday, nearby WTI was trading at $94.30, down $3.93, or 4.00%, for the week. That weekly loss, however, hides the real story. Price action was violent in both directions as traders tried to price the odds of a ceasefire against the reality that the Strait of Hormuz remains the key chokepoint in the global oil system. Reuters reported…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict Governments moved again this week to release and build oil reserves as the supply shock from the Iran war deepened and the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained. Japan began releasing about one month of state-held crude, adding to earlier draws from private stockpiles, while the United States is already in the middle of one of its largest-ever Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases to contain price spikes. At the global level, the International Energy Agency confirmed that more than 400 million barrels are being…

If Trump’s push for a negotiated end to the war with Iran fails, there are few options that deliver immediate economic impact without expanding the fight inland. Seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s main offshore oil export terminal, is one of them. Trump has now paused strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure twice, to April 6, claiming it is intended as a window for negotiations that Tehran requested. He’s afraid to give away this leverage right now. At the same time, indirect communication is now confirmed, with Pakistan relaying…

Surging LNG prices amid the war in the Middle East are set to lead to the lowest monthly LNG imports into China in eight years as Qatari and UAE supply is off the market and Chinese buyers look to raise supply from domestic gas production and pipeline deliveries. China is on track to import about 3.7 million tons of LNG in March, per tanker-tracking data by Kpler cited by Bloomberg. That would be the lowest monthly import level in the world’s top LNG importer since the spring of 2018, as well as a 25% slump compared to March 2025, according…

Oil prices could hit a record $200 per barrel if the war in the Middle East drags on through the entire second quarter, analysts at Macquarie Group have warned.  The odds of the Iran war dragging on until June were put at 40% by the analysts in a note carried by Bloomberg. But the scenario of the war ending by the end of March currently appears more plausible, with odds at 60%, according to Macquarie.    “If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically…

Oil prices could hit a record $200 per barrel if the war in the Middle East drags on through the entire second quarter, analysts at Macquarie Group have warned.  The odds of the Iran war dragging on until June were put at 40% by the analysts in a note carried by Bloomberg. But the scenario of the war ending by the end of March currently appears more plausible, with odds at 60%, according to Macquarie.    “If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically…

India on Friday moved to protect its fuel supply and consumers by reducing domestic taxes on gasoline and diesel and imposing a levy on fuel exports. In view of the West Asia crisis, the central excise duty on petrol and diesel for domestic consumption has been reduced by 10 rupees ($0.11) per liter each, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a post on X today. “This will provide protection to consumers from rise in prices,” the minister added.  In addition, India also imposes duties on exports of diesel and jet fuel, at…

India on Friday moved to protect its fuel supply and consumers by reducing domestic taxes on gasoline and diesel and imposing a levy on fuel exports. In view of the West Asia crisis, the central excise duty on petrol and diesel for domestic consumption has been reduced by 10 rupees ($0.11) per liter each, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a post on X today. “This will provide protection to consumers from rise in prices,” the minister added.  In addition, India also imposes duties on exports of diesel and jet fuel, at…

European natural gas futures climbed toward €55/MWh on Thursday, snapping a four-day losing streak due to uncertainty over a Middle East ceasefire and ongoing threats to energy infrastructure. Initial hopes for a Middle East ceasefire quickly faded after Iran rejected Washington’s 15-point peace proposal and outlined its own conditions instead. Damage to Gulf energy infrastructure has been extensive, with approximately 40 energy assets across the Gulf having been attacked. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced rerouting…

The U.S. federal government is modeling a scenario with crude oil at $200 per barrel to see what the potential fallout of such a price surge would be for the U.S. economy. The news, reported by Bloomberg and coming from unnamed officials, comes on top of contradictory messaging from the Trump administration, with the latest signals pointing towards a push for a ceasefire. Analysts started talking about the potential rise of Brent crude all the way to $200 earlier in March when it became clear the Iran war was not going to be over in a few days.…

The oil market may be sleepwalking into a significant move higher if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked beyond March. The massive loss of supply from the Middle East has already reverberated through Asia, which depends on oil and gas from the Gulf and which is already rationing fuel, banning exports, and paying hefty premiums for any crude that could replace the sour Middle Eastern grades that are trapped by the de facto closed Strait of Hormuz.   Oil traders and speculators – those who haven’t fled yet the extremely volatile…

The United States energy grid is in an extremely vulnerable position. Aging and underfunded, the grid is already being stressed to its limits by skyrocketing energy demand on the part of data centers as well as increasingly complicated energy flows introduced by solar and wind power. Building and maintaining a resilient energy grid will require a huge investment into expanding, reinforcing, and updating the grid – but in the meantime, all that expansion leaves the United States extremely vulnerable to cyberattack, according to security experts.…

Sir Keir Starmer has said he doesn’t hold legal powers to approve fresh exploration of North Sea oil and gas fields, with the decision falling in the hands of net zero secretary Ed Miliband. Starmer said current legislation determined that a quasi-judicial decision relating to cases for more gas extraction at Shell’s Jackdaw site and Equinor’s Rosebank oil field was left to Miliband. The Prime Minister reiterated the government’s commitment to expanding renewable energy. He said the introduction of fresh legislation would…

The Arab states of the Persian Gulf have suffered major economic and security costs in the wake of the U.S./Israeli attack on Iran. Iranian missile and drone retaliation hit airports, ports, and energy infrastructure, disrupting aviation, trade, tourism, and hydrocarbon exports, and damaging the Gulf’s reputation as a stable business hub. Attacks on shipping and energy facilities, such as the disruption at Fujairah port and the Shah gas field in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), show how quickly a U.S./Israel war on Iran can spill over onto…

The oil shock will soon show up where it usually does—jobs. Goldman Sachs warned that higher crude prices could cost the U.S. labor market around 10,000 jobs per month through the rest of the year, as elevated energy costs ripple through the broader economy. The hit comes even after accounting for gains in the oil patch. Higher prices used to mean that a hiring boom in shale was soon to follow. Not this time, according to a Thursday note to Goldman clients. Today’s U.S. oil producers are leaner, more automated, and far less willing…

The oil shock will soon show up where it usually does—jobs. Goldman Sachs warned that higher crude prices could cost the U.S. labor market around 10,000 jobs per month through the rest of the year, as elevated energy costs ripple through the broader economy. The hit comes even after accounting for gains in the oil patch. Higher prices used to mean that a hiring boom in shale was soon to follow. Not this time, according to a Thursday note to Goldman clients. Today’s U.S. oil producers are leaner, more automated, and far less willing…