European natural gas futures climbed toward €55/MWh on Thursday, snapping a four-day losing streak due to uncertainty over a Middle East ceasefire and ongoing threats to energy infrastructure. Initial hopes for a Middle East ceasefire quickly faded after Iran rejected Washington’s 15-point peace proposal and outlined its own conditions instead. Damage to Gulf energy infrastructure has been extensive, with approximately 40 energy assets across the Gulf having been attacked. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced rerouting…

The U.S. federal government is modeling a scenario with crude oil at $200 per barrel to see what the potential fallout of such a price surge would be for the U.S. economy. The news, reported by Bloomberg and coming from unnamed officials, comes on top of contradictory messaging from the Trump administration, with the latest signals pointing towards a push for a ceasefire. Analysts started talking about the potential rise of Brent crude all the way to $200 earlier in March when it became clear the Iran war was not going to be over in a few days.…

The oil market may be sleepwalking into a significant move higher if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked beyond March. The massive loss of supply from the Middle East has already reverberated through Asia, which depends on oil and gas from the Gulf and which is already rationing fuel, banning exports, and paying hefty premiums for any crude that could replace the sour Middle Eastern grades that are trapped by the de facto closed Strait of Hormuz.   Oil traders and speculators – those who haven’t fled yet the extremely volatile…

The United States energy grid is in an extremely vulnerable position. Aging and underfunded, the grid is already being stressed to its limits by skyrocketing energy demand on the part of data centers as well as increasingly complicated energy flows introduced by solar and wind power. Building and maintaining a resilient energy grid will require a huge investment into expanding, reinforcing, and updating the grid – but in the meantime, all that expansion leaves the United States extremely vulnerable to cyberattack, according to security experts.…

Sir Keir Starmer has said he doesn’t hold legal powers to approve fresh exploration of North Sea oil and gas fields, with the decision falling in the hands of net zero secretary Ed Miliband. Starmer said current legislation determined that a quasi-judicial decision relating to cases for more gas extraction at Shell’s Jackdaw site and Equinor’s Rosebank oil field was left to Miliband. The Prime Minister reiterated the government’s commitment to expanding renewable energy. He said the introduction of fresh legislation would…

The Arab states of the Persian Gulf have suffered major economic and security costs in the wake of the U.S./Israeli attack on Iran. Iranian missile and drone retaliation hit airports, ports, and energy infrastructure, disrupting aviation, trade, tourism, and hydrocarbon exports, and damaging the Gulf’s reputation as a stable business hub. Attacks on shipping and energy facilities, such as the disruption at Fujairah port and the Shah gas field in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), show how quickly a U.S./Israel war on Iran can spill over onto…

The oil shock will soon show up where it usually does—jobs. Goldman Sachs warned that higher crude prices could cost the U.S. labor market around 10,000 jobs per month through the rest of the year, as elevated energy costs ripple through the broader economy. The hit comes even after accounting for gains in the oil patch. Higher prices used to mean that a hiring boom in shale was soon to follow. Not this time, according to a Thursday note to Goldman clients. Today’s U.S. oil producers are leaner, more automated, and far less willing…

The oil shock will soon show up where it usually does—jobs. Goldman Sachs warned that higher crude prices could cost the U.S. labor market around 10,000 jobs per month through the rest of the year, as elevated energy costs ripple through the broader economy. The hit comes even after accounting for gains in the oil patch. Higher prices used to mean that a hiring boom in shale was soon to follow. Not this time, according to a Thursday note to Goldman clients. Today’s U.S. oil producers are leaner, more automated, and far less willing…

The oil shock will soon show up where it usually does—jobs. Goldman Sachs warned that higher crude prices could cost the U.S. labor market around 10,000 jobs per month through the rest of the year, as elevated energy costs ripple through the broader economy. The hit comes even after accounting for gains in the oil patch. Higher prices used to mean that a hiring boom in shale was soon to follow. Not this time, according to a Thursday note to Goldman clients. Today’s U.S. oil producers are leaner, more automated, and far less willing…

Iran has recently bolstered its defenses around Kharg Island, anticipating a possible US move to seize the key oil export hub, CNN reported this week. The island is vital to Iran’s economy, handling roughly 90% of its crude shipments, and has become a focal point in escalating tensions. The Trump administration has explored the option of sending US forces to take control of the island as leverage to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But military officials caution that such an operation would carry serious risks. Iran…

President Donald Trump said Thursday that Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, describing the move as a “present” and a sign of progress in ongoing negotiations. The comment, made during a Cabinet meeting, offers the clearest indication yet of what the administration had been hinting at earlier this week—some limited easing at the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. The details are scant. The White House has not confirmed specifics on the vessels, their cargo, or whether additional transits are…

President Donald Trump said Thursday that Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to transit the Strait of Hormuz, describing the move as a “present” and a sign of progress in ongoing negotiations. The comment, made during a Cabinet meeting, offers the clearest indication yet of what the administration had been hinting at earlier this week—some limited easing at the world’s most critical oil chokepoint. The details are scant. The White House has not confirmed specifics on the vessels, their cargo, or whether additional transits are…

War in the Middle East has triggered severe global supply disruptions in oil and gas, with reported damage and shutdowns affecting liquefied natural gas (LNG) trains, refineries, fuel terminals and critical gas-to-liquids facilities across the region. According to Rystad Energy’s estimates, energy infrastructure repair and restoration costs to date could reach at least $25 billion, based on an initial assessment of impacted facilities, and are expected to rise further. Spending is likely to be driven primarily by engineering and construction,…

As the uncertainty surrounding indirect negotiations between Washington and Tehran intensifies, air strikes on Iran, Israel, and surrounding states also continued -- “business as usual,” as one Israeli military official called it on March 25. Meanwhile, the Pentagon, while not acknowledging media reports of shortages, said it had struck deals with several US defense contractors to bolster stocks of munitions, including parts for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) interceptors being widely used in the Middle East war. It…

Russia is scrambling to reroute oil flows after a fresh wave of attacks knocked out key Baltic export infrastructure—just as maritime risks are already piling up elsewhere. According to Reuters, citing Interfax, pipeline operator Transneft is attempting to redirect crude volumes away from ports hit by Ukrainian drone strikes, including Primorsk and Ust-Luga—two of Russia’s most critical export hubs. Reuters calculations suggest as much as 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is currently offline, factoring in port outages,…

Russia is scrambling to reroute oil flows after a fresh wave of attacks knocked out key Baltic export infrastructure—just as maritime risks are already piling up elsewhere. According to Reuters, citing Interfax, pipeline operator Transneft is attempting to redirect crude volumes away from ports hit by Ukrainian drone strikes, including Primorsk and Ust-Luga—two of Russia’s most critical export hubs. Reuters calculations suggest as much as 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is currently offline, factoring in port outages,…

Russia is scrambling to reroute oil flows after a fresh wave of attacks knocked out key Baltic export infrastructure—just as maritime risks are already piling up elsewhere. According to Reuters, citing Interfax, pipeline operator Transneft is attempting to redirect crude volumes away from ports hit by Ukrainian drone strikes, including Primorsk and Ust-Luga—two of Russia’s most critical export hubs. Reuters calculations suggest as much as 40% of Russia’s oil export capacity is currently offline, factoring in port outages,…

Despite headlines saying that energy shortages could hit Europe by April, in reality, the continent has enough natural gas, renewables and coal to last it until summer, when energy demand picks up after a home heating reduction in spring due to warmer temperatures.The spring also coincides with an increase in daylight hours, meaning more solar power generation. The combination typically loosens the European power market, which is good news for Europe, as the war with Iran has significantly bumped up crude oil and natural gas prices.  The findings…

Iran’s oil exports have not collapsed and are fetching much higher prices than before the war, handing Tehran handsome extra revenues from its crude, which is the only one unimpeded from transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Unlike all other Gulf producers, Iran is passing its oil through the Strait of Hormuz and its export volumes remain resilient. Steady volumes and higher prices have been bringing millions of dollars of additional oil revenues for the Islamic Republic since the war began, as oil prices jumped and discounts for Iranian barrels…

Gasoline prices continue to surge. Drivers saw increases of roughly 50 cents per gallon almost overnight following the outbreak of hostilities with Iran. According to AAA, the national average price of gasoline has climbed by nearly $1.00 per gallon over the past month—one of the fastest increases in decades. It feels like a ripoff, and for many Americans, the same questions come up every time. If the United States is the world’s largest oil producer—in fact, if we are energy independent—then why are we still at the mercy…