Carlyle Group Chief Strategy Officer, Jeff Currie, has declared that the global oil market's "illusion of abundance" has vanished, warning that the market has rapidly transitioned from a standard supply deficit into a structural energy shortage. According to the former head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, the real signal of a market deficit comes from refined product markets, where crack spreads have skyrocketed to an unprecedented $70 a barrel--a historic level wherein the processing spread nearly equals the price of the crude itself.…

Carlyle Group Chief Strategy Officer, Jeff Currie, has declared that the global oil market's "illusion of abundance" has vanished, warning that the market has rapidly transitioned from a standard supply deficit into a structural energy shortage. According to the former head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs, the real signal of a market deficit comes from refined product markets, where crack spreads have skyrocketed to an unprecedented $70 a barrel--a historic level wherein the processing spread nearly equals the price of the crude itself.…

Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities, attacks on critical infrastructure, and near-halted Hormuz tanker traffic are fueling expectations of higher oil prices. Friday, July 17, 2026 US forces striking civilian infrastructure in Iran, Tehran attacking a Kuwaiti power and desalination plant, repeated attacks on tankers in the Hormuz Strait and the potential extension of maritime warfare towards the Bab el-Mandeb Strait – all this points towards oil prices continuing their upward movement in the days to come. With Hormuz transits falling close to…

The Armenian government approved a bill on July 16 to formalize the country’s role in the development of the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, or TRIPP, which is envisioned as a key node in the emerging Middle Corridor trade network. The bill affirms the development guidelines specified in a framework agreement signed by US and Armenian officials covering TRIPP, including operational and ownership structures. The United States is envisioned as holding a 74 percent stake in TRIPP, with the Armenian government retaining…

US forces stepped up attacks on Iranian sites, reportedly striking key bridges, railways, and an airport, prompting retaliatory action by Tehran, even while the White House said talks between the warring sides were still under way and that diplomacy remained a viable option. At 9:30 p.m. in Iran, "US forces began conducting a new wave of strikes against Iran for the sixth consecutive night to further degrade Iranian military capabilities," US Central Command (CENTCOM) said in a statement on July 16. Hours later, CENTCOM said that the mission had…

Following the surge in international crude oil prices in the past week, China will raise the domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel, effective July 18, the state economic planning commission said on Friday.  The National Development and Reform Commission, which regularly adjusts the caps on retail prices based on the price of oil on the global market, today announced that the gasoline price would go up by 300 Chinese yuan, or by $44.29, per ton, as of Saturday.   The retail diesel price will rise by 290 yuan, or $42.82, per…

Following the surge in international crude oil prices in the past week, China will raise the domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel, effective July 18, the state economic planning commission said on Friday.  The National Development and Reform Commission, which regularly adjusts the caps on retail prices based on the price of oil on the global market, today announced that the gasoline price would go up by 300 Chinese yuan, or by $44.29, per ton, as of Saturday.   The retail diesel price will rise by 290 yuan, or $42.82, per…

September WTI crude oil posted its strongest weekly gain in months, rallying over 11% as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium into the market. After opening the week near $72.50, prices climbed above $80 before easing slightly into Thursday's close. The move marked a dramatic reversal from the previous two weeks, when optimism over improving oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz had pressured prices lower. This week, renewed military action between the United States and Iran shifted the market's focus back to the risk of supply…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict Baghdad is assembling a westward export system capable of carrying southern Iraqi crude to the Mediterranean through Syria or Turkey. Iraq has brought Chevron, U.S. investment firm Capital TI, and Qatar’s UCC into technical and financial studies for two oil export pipelines built around a common Basra-Haditha trunk. One route would continue through Kirkuk to Turkey’s Mediterranean port of Ceyhan; the other would cross Syria to Baniyas. KBR is conducting a separate study of the Basra-Haditha section,…

Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthis to prepare to disrupt the Red Sea oil route if the United States attacks Iranian power infrastructure. Missiles and drones have reportedly been deployed near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, with Houthi forces awaiting an order (reportedly from the IRGC itself) to begin attacks on shipping as of late Thursday. This is a pincer movement by Tehran on the oil routes, building on Hormuz leverage by adding the Houthis into the mix to threaten the southern entrance to the Red Sea and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait that the…

Following the surge in international crude oil prices in the past week, China will raise the domestic retail prices of gasoline and diesel, effective July 18, the state economic planning commission said on Friday.  The National Development and Reform Commission, which regularly adjusts the caps on retail prices based on the price of oil on the global market, today announced that the gasoline price would go up by 300 Chinese yuan, or by $44.29, per ton, as of Saturday.   The retail diesel price will rise by 290 yuan, or $42.82, per…

China’s giant state LNG importers are in talks to secure long-term LNG supplies from exporters that don’t need the Strait of Hormuz, as the world’s biggest LNG buyer seeks to reduce its exposure to gas deliveries from the Persian Gulf, sources familiar with the plans told Bloomberg on Friday. China is the top LNG customer of Qatar, and it sourced nearly 30% of its LNG supply from the Gulf exporter last year.    But as the Middle East conflict erupted and led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and damaged Qatari facilities,…

Since the Iran war disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz in early March, South Korea has been increasingly betting on the Red Sea route and the Saudi export terminal of Yanbu to load oil on tankers and ship it to Asia. Before the Iran war began, South Korea depended on cargoes transited via the Strait of Hormuz for as much as 61% of its crude oil imports and 54% of its naphtha imports. South Korea, one of Asia’s biggest economies and one of the largest energy importers in the region, has sought to diversify its crude imports not…

JERA, the biggest Japanese LNG importer and largest power producer, is studying a potential listing in the United States as part of a plan to boost its international footprint, Reuters reported on Friday, quoting anonymous sources with knowledge of the matter.  The unlisted JERA has launched a feasibility study to assess potential investor demand and the U.S. market conditions and regulatory requirements, according to two of Reuters’ sources. No plan for a U.S. listing has been finalized yet, and no decisions have been taken at JERA…

Cesium is an “obscure object of desire” in one of the world’s most tightly constrained critical mineral markets, where commercial production has historically come from only a handful of mines. The push to rebuild America’s defense supply chain has turned this rarest of commercial metals into a strategic priority. While cesium has occupied a rather quiet corner of the critical metals industry for decades, its scarcity and uncertainty are now drawing increased attention, given its role in American defense technology. Power…

The oil market may soon run out of the supply and demand cushions that have kept prices from soaring to record highs during the huge loss of flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The window provided by the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, during which Middle Eastern producers rushed the crude amassed in the Gulf in the previous four months out of the region, abruptly shut down with the renewed hostilities and all-but-dead ceasefire. Inventories of crude and fuels in key markets, including the United States, are running dangerously low with…

Back in March, the 32-member countries of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to a record release of 400 million barrels of oil and refined products from their emergency reserves after the Iran war disrupted global energy flows and triggered sharp oil price spikes. The United States did the heavy lifting, with the Trump administration authorizing the release of 172 million barrels from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), comparable to the 180 million barrels that the Biden administration released during the energy crisis triggered…

Global oil demand could decrease for the first time since 2020, following months of oil trade restrictions in the Middle East and ongoing geopolitical turmoil, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on 10th July. This expectation is echoed in OPEC's most recent 2026 global oil demand growth forecast. The global demand for oil is expected to fall by around 1 million bpd year-on-year in 2026, which would be the first annual decline since that which was experienced during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, according to a recent IEA report. The IEA…

Chevron is taking another step toward expanding its footprint in Iraq, and is set to sign two memoranda of understanding on Friday that will move the U.S. supermajor closer to developing the giant West Qurna 2 oilfield and the Nassiriya project. The agreements aren't binding, but they push negotiations forward on what could become one of Chevron's biggest upstream investments in years. West Qurna 2 is no small prize. The southern Iraqi field currently produces about 460,000 barrels per day after Iraq nationalized the asset earlier this year following…

Yemen's Houthi Rebels are threatening to make the global energy crisis worse at the same time that the nation's own energy security is in dire straits. After four years of an unofficial truce and precarious peacetime, Yemen has once again erupted into conflict this week. And this escalating tension comes on the heels of months of threats on the part of the Houthi rebels to fight alongside Iran, potentially making the region's waterways ever more impassable for the global oil trade. Less than half of Yemen's population has access to electricity,…