Brent crude is set to close above $100 for the first time since 2022 as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz intensify. ICE Brent is set to settle above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022, undeterred by the US’ easing of sanctions on Russia and the IEA’s mulled release of strategic petroleum stocks. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz sits front and centre to any oil price outlook, with Iran already striking at least 18 vessels since the US-Iran conflict started two weeks ago. Iran’s New Supreme Leader Goes All…

The war in the Middle East has effectively shut in 15% of TotalEnergies’ global oil and gas output, while the now-offline barrels account for about 10% of the supermajor’s upstream cash flow. Following requests from shareholders and to answer the question about the status of TotalEnergies’ exposure to Middle East, the France-based international major said on Friday that “production has been shut down or is in the process of shutting down in Qatar, Iraq, and UAE offshore, representing approximately 15%” of the group’s…

For decades, global attention has focused on the potential “red line” of Iran’s nuclear program. Intelligence agencies track centrifuge installations, debate enrichment levels, and speculate about the possibility of a nuclear breakout. But while the world has been watching Iran’s nuclear program, it has a far more immediate strategic lever. Iran’s most powerful weapon is not a bomb. It is the geography it controls. The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow shipping corridor between Iran and Oman. If that passage is effectively…

Investment banks are scrambling to revise up their oil price forecasts as the Middle East war cripples supply from the most important oil-producing region, with some expecting oil to surge to $150 per barrel or even higher if the Strait of Hormuz remains off limits for tanker traffic for several weeks.  Analysts at Macquarie warned of this potential price spike, while all other major investment banks hiked their first-quarter and second-quarter forecasts.   Goldman Sachs, for example, expects Brent Crude prices to average over $100…

Crude oil markets experienced intense volatility between March 8 and March 12 as traders reacted to escalating geopolitical tensions, threats to global oil shipping routes, and emergency supply measures from major consuming nations. The week saw both benchmarks swing sharply as the market tried to price in the risk of a major supply disruption in the Middle East. By Thursday’s close, nearby West Texas Intermediate crude futures were trading at $96.77, up $5.87 or 6.46%, reflecting how quickly sentiment shifted during the week. At the center…

Oil on War Footing The disruption to Qatar’s LNG system is now spreading through the global trading network. Shell and TotalEnergies have begun notifying customers that deliveries may be disrupted after QatarEnergy halted LNG production following drone strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. These companies buy cargoes from Qatar and resell them under their own contracts to utilities and industrial buyers across Europe and Asia. When upstream supply stops, those downstream commitments cannot be guaranteed. Traders therefore begin declaring force…

The IEA estimates that at least 10 million bpd of supply has already been shut in, making it the largest disruption the oil market has ever faced. Refineries across the Gulf are reducing runs because products cannot be exported. Diesel, jet fuel, and LPG markets are tightening sharply. Governments have responded with a record 400-million-barrel release from strategic reserves, but those barrels will arrive slowly while the disruption is happening now. At the same time, Tehran itself is sending mixed signals. Iranian diplomats say the country does…

Refiners can legally buy at least 19 million barrels of Russian crude held on 25 tankers in Asia under the one-month U.S. waiver allowing sales as Middle Eastern supply is choked.   The U.S. Treasury on Thursday moved to allow until April 11 purchases of Russian crude stuck in tankers in floating storage.  Some 30 tankers carrying Russian crude oil and petroleum products are in Asia currently, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.  Of these tankers, 25 are laden with crude while the rest hold products, mostly…

Goldman Sachs expects Brent Crude prices to average over $100 per barrel this month as the Middle East war continues to choke supply, the investment bank said on Friday, noting that prices could surge even higher if the biggest oil supply disruption in history extends into months instead of weeks.  Analysts at Goldman Sachs see the average Brent Crude price at $85 per barrel in April, they said in a note carried by Reuters.   The new estimates follow Thursday’s price forecast update in which Goldman Sachs hiked its Brent Crude…

Oil producers in the Arab Gulf have already lost at least $15.1 billion in oil and gas revenues since the start of the Middle East war, per estimates by commodities analytics firm Kpler cited by the Financial Times. The de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz has choked off since March 1, millions of barrels per day of crude oil and refined petroleum products, and 20% of the global LNG supply.  Since the war began, Gulf producers have already lost $15.1 billion in revenues, based on estimates that the choked supplies that cannot pass the…

The fight for geopolitical supremacy is increasingly a fight over rare earths — the critical elements that power advanced defense systems, high-performance manufacturing, and next-generation energy technologies. REalloys (NASDAQ: ALOY) is already operating in the most strategic segment of that chain, converting heavy rare earth materials into high-performance magnets and alloys inside the United States.For Washington, the challenge is not geology — it’s processing. Many Western companies are still in early exploration or planning…

Saudi Arabia has opened a tender for two million barrels of its flagship Arab Light grade for loading this month from its Red Sea port of Yanbu, Reuters has reported, citing unnamed traders. This is Saudi Arabia’s fourth oil tender as it seeks to redirect crude supply from the Persian Gulf to the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia has pivoted onshore Arab Light volumes onto the 7 million barrels per day Petroline from the east to Yanbu on its western shores. This has pushed Yanbu’s oil exports to about 2.47 million bpd, a massive 330% surge compared…

Just a month ago, Alberta’s finance ministry announced a budget featuring annual deficits for three years in a row on the back of low oil prices. Now, Canadian crude oil producers are set to “benefit disproportionately” from the war in the Middle East thanks to the fact that Canadian crude prices follow WTI closely—and WTI is spiking. When Minister Nate Horner presented the budget for Canada’s oil province, he said expectations were that oil prices would bottom out this year and start rising in 2027. Little could Horner…

Wall Street analysts are warning that U.S. airlines could face a painful earnings squeeze as oil prices surge amid the escalating war with Iran. Crude prices jumped over 9% on Thursday as the conflict rattled energy markets and heightened fears of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz. Many U.S. carriers largely abandoned fuel hedging in recent years, leaving them far more exposed to sudden price spikes and raising the prospect that only a handful of airlines can remain profitable at current oil prices. Airlines and oil producers typically rely…

When tensions around the Strait of Hormuz began rattling energy markets again, the reaction was entirely predictable. Tanker traffic slowed, insurance premiums rose, and oil and gas prices started climbing. But something else happened just as predictably. Across Europe, politicians and policy institutions began reviving familiar proposals: reopen gas fields, expand offshore drilling, reconsider domestic reserves that had previously been phased out. In the Netherlands, even the long-closed Groningen gas field has cautiously resurfaced in policy…

The Middle East war and the mother of all oil shocks—the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz—have exposed the global dependence on oil and gas as buyers scramble for cargoes and consumers once again bear the brunt of spiking energy prices. Before the war, the world had just overcome the energy system disruption from the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the embargoes on Russian energy in most of the developed economies. Some thought this was the biggest energy shock this decade, and most governments placed energy security ahead of…

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned Thursday that it could ignite a wider energy crisis across the Middle East if Iran’s own oil and gas infrastructure comes under attack. In a statement carried by state broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC said any strike on Iran’s energy facilities or ports would trigger a “crushing and devastating response.” The force warned that, in such a scenario, oil and gas infrastructure across the region linked to the United States and its Western allies would be “set on fire…

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned Thursday that it could ignite a wider energy crisis across the Middle East if Iran’s own oil and gas infrastructure comes under attack. In a statement carried by state broadcaster IRIB, the IRGC said any strike on Iran’s energy facilities or ports would trigger a “crushing and devastating response.” The force warned that, in such a scenario, oil and gas infrastructure across the region linked to the United States and its Western allies would be “set on fire…

The U.S. Department of Energy is launching a $1.9 billion funding effort aimed at rapidly expanding the capacity of the nation’s power grid by upgrading existing transmission lines. This is instead of building entirely new ones. The initiative, called Speed to Power through Accelerated Reconductoring and other Key Advanced Transmission Technology Upgrades—mercifully shortened to SPARK—will fund projects that replace existing transmission wires with higher-capacity conductors and deploy advanced grid technologies designed to squeeze…

The U.S. Department of Energy is launching a $1.9 billion funding effort aimed at rapidly expanding the capacity of the nation’s power grid by upgrading existing transmission lines. This is instead of building entirely new ones. The initiative, called Speed to Power through Accelerated Reconductoring and other Key Advanced Transmission Technology Upgrades—mercifully shortened to SPARK—will fund projects that replace existing transmission wires with higher-capacity conductors and deploy advanced grid technologies designed to squeeze…