Markets looked past rising supply as shifting U.S. rhetoric on Iran and ongoing weather-related disruptions kept risk premiums elevated. Friday, January 30, 2026 Trump’s erratic rhetoric has been greatly supportive of oil prices this week, first promising ‘speed and violence’ to Iran, only to talk about dialogue the next day. The gradual return of Kazakhstan’s shut-in production was not an impediment to see ICE Brent end the week above $70 per barrel, with the bullish sentiment also bolstered by US supply still bearing the…

The global oversupply is set to override geopolitical flare-ups this year, keeping oil prices close to the $60 per barrel mark, the monthly Reuters poll showed on Friday. Brent Crude prices are expected to average $62.02 per barrel in 2026, according to 31 economists and analysts surveyed by Reuters in January. This month’s estimate for the average Brent price this year is higher compared to the December forecast of $61.27. The analysts in the poll expect the U.S. benchmark, WTI Crude, to average $58.72 per barrel in 2026, slightly above…

Even as US President Donald Trump threatens to strike Iran, he has repeatedly called on Tehran to “make a deal.” Trump’s demands for an agreement are clear: Iran must end its nuclear program, limit its ballistic missile capabilities, and sever ties with armed proxies in the Middle East. In return, the United States will not attack Iran and remove crippling sanctions. If the Islamic Republic does not accept those terms, Trump has warned that the country will suffer consequences “far worse” than last year, when the United…

Despite lower oil prices, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) booked higher-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter as quarterly production in the Permian basin and offshore Guyana set new records. Exxon reported on Friday earnings excluding identified items of $7.3 billion for the fourth quarter, or $1.71 per share. This beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.70 per share. Earnings were lower in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, due to lower oil prices and weak chemicals margins.  Early this month, Exxon had flagged an $800 million to $1.2…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict On the US-Iran front, this week was full of bluster with Trump’s trademark tactic of ambiguous escalation, roiling markets and sending gold and crude soaring on apocalyptic hedging. Trump publicly said the U.S. is ready to strike Iran, which was purposefully ambiguous. Alongside the rhetoric, the U.S. military is maintaining an elevated posture in the Middle East. Iran responded on the military front by announcing live-fire drills in and around the Strait of Hormuz with U.S. warships in nearby waters.…

This week, French and U.S. officials convened a quiet meeting in Paris between representatives of Libya’s rival power centers: figures close to Abdulhamid Dbeibah, the Tripoli-based prime minister whose authority rests on control of state finances, and figures aligned with Khalifa Haftar, the eastern commander whose power derives from armed force and oil leverage.  Publicly, the talks were about strengthening Libya’s “institutions” (Central Bank, the NOC, and budget oversight bodies). In practice, they’re about…

Iran Tensions Put Risk Premium Front and Center The biggest driver this week has been a sharp escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions, injecting a sizeable risk premium into both benchmarks. Reports that President Trump is considering targeted strikes on Iranian leadership have pushed Brent to around $70.70 and WTI to the mid-$60s—the highest levels since mid-2025. Trump warned Tehran it faces military force unless it accepts a new nuclear deal, with talk of a "massive armada" headed toward the region. The U.S. has reinforced its naval presence…

If you will forgive me, I intend this week to write about something other than energy. Or, at least, not to address energy stocks or commodity prices directly. US interest rates, often considered a somewhat boring, nerdy storyline by many traders and investors, are still one of the biggest factors in determining the prospects for the global, as well as the American, economy.  It is, therefore, essential that investors in energy, as just about the most sensitive sector to global conditions, follow the ongoing saga at the Fed. As I write, on…

Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices were headed on Friday for their largest monthly gain since 2023 as cold snaps in January boosted heating and power demand and fast-draining storage sites fueled a market rally. The front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, were on track for a 38% monthly gain on Friday, the biggest advance in one month since the summer of 2023, when a supply crunch sent prices skyrocketing. On Friday morning in Amsterdam, the benchmark price was 1.3% higher on the day, at…

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) reported on Friday consensus-beating earnings for the fourth quarter as it pledged to boost presence in Venezuela, where it is currently the only U.S. company authorized to operate. Chevron reported today adjusted earnings of $3.0 billion, or $1.52 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2025. While the profit was lower compared to the same period of 2024 – as widely expected due to lower oil prices – Chevron’s earnings beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.42 per share compiled by The Wall Street…

The UK’s largest energy supplier, Octopus Energy, is entering the Chinese market with a joint venture to trade renewable power in the world’s top clean energy market. Octopus Energy announced the deal on Friday, as the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer is on an official visit to China to restart UK-Chinese relations. As part of an agreement with China’s PCG Power, Octopus Energy will form a joint venture to trade renewable energy across the world’s largest clean energy market. The joint venture is also a major step…

Venezuelan legislators have voted for an updated oil industry law that the country’s leadership hopes will bring in much-needed foreign investment to reverse a decline resulting from mismanagement and U.S. sanctions. Acting President Delcy Rodriguez signed the new law late on Thursday, the AP reported, hours after the parliament voted in favor of it, and on the heels of news that the U.S. has lifted some of the sanctions against Venezuela’s oil industry in a bid to entice energy companies to consider investing in the country. It was…

Oil prices surged to their highest level in months in Wednesday's session after reports emerged that U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing targeted strikes on Iranian military positions as he pursues regime change. Brent crude for March delivery was up 3.63% to trade at $70.92 per barrel at 12.40 pm ET, marking the first time Brent has crossed the pivotal $70 per barrel mark since July 2025, while the corresponding WTI contract gained 3.72% to $65.49. Unrest in the OPEC-producing country has left thousands dead, with a U.S.-based rights group…

Colombia’s natural gas market is entering a period of sustained pressure as domestic production declines, new supply remains years away, and dependence on imported LNG deepens. The depletion of mature onshore fields, the freeze on new exploration licences, and delays in expanding import and transport infrastructure are converging at a time of rising demand, leaving regasification capacity as the main short-term buffer against widening supply deficits. The decline in domestic output began in 2023 and has continued as legacy fields –…

China played a big role in supporting oil prices in 2025 as it accelerated crude stockpiling and absorbed part of the additional supply that producers put on the market. Despite the easing of the OPEC+ cuts, the large supply growth from the Americas, and the continued flow of sanctioned Iranian, Russian, and Venezuelan barrels for most of 2025, oil prices did not collapse. International crude benchmarks held steady at about $60 per barrel, which China apparently considers cheap enough to buy more crude than it immediately needs and put it in commercial…

For years, Mexico has been a major fuel buyer from the United States. Then the government built a new refinery that cost $20 billion, which was planned to boost the country’s energy independence. It seems it has finally started to do just that—and fuel imports are on the decline. The Olmeca refinery, also called Dos Bocas, was the centerpiece of Mexico’s previous administration, with Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador at the helm and plans for an even greater role for state-owned Pemex in Mexico’s energy system. The project was…

Oil markets got a jolt this week after an explosion and fire tore through part of Türkiye’s largest refinery, the Tupras Izmit complex, forcing evacuations and an emergency response. The blast reportedly hit a gasoline storage tank and spread quickly, sending flames across part of the facility. Officials have not yet said what caused the incident or how much damage was done, though workers were evacuated and no immediate injuries were reported. The global oil market is already dealing with tighter trade routes, shifting product flows,…

Oil markets got a jolt this week after an explosion and fire tore through part of Türkiye’s largest refinery, the Tupras Izmit complex, forcing evacuations and an emergency response. The blast reportedly hit a gasoline storage tank and spread quickly, sending flames across part of the facility. Officials have not yet said what caused the incident or how much damage was done, though workers were evacuated and no immediate injuries were reported. The global oil market is already dealing with tighter trade routes, shifting product flows,…

Oil markets got a jolt this week after an explosion and fire tore through part of Türkiye’s largest refinery, the Tupras Izmit complex, forcing evacuations and an emergency response. The blast reportedly hit a gasoline storage tank and spread quickly, sending flames across part of the facility. Officials have not yet said what caused the incident or how much damage was done, though workers were evacuated and no immediate injuries were reported. The global oil market is already dealing with tighter trade routes, shifting product flows,…

As Americans brave a brutal cold snap, households are facing higher heating bills this summer.  According to a report released last week by the National Energy Assistance Directors Association (NEADA), heating prices are expected to rise by 9.2% in the 2025-2026 winter vs. one year ago. According to the NEADA analysis, electricity costs are expected to rise $12.2%, or $133 this winter, while gas prices are projected to rise 8.4% or $54. Heating oil costs are expected to remain flat, while propane should be down 1.4%,…