The Middle East’s oil production and the global economy will take months and even years to recover from the worst crude supply shock in history. Two months after the U.S. and Israel bombed Iran on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for most tanker traffic, forcing more than 10 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude output shut-ins across the Middle Eastern oil producers. The disrupted energy flows triggered a global race for alternative supply, and sent energy prices soaring with the prospect of slowing global economic growth…

It will take many months for Middle East gas and oil volumes to fully recover from the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict, even if all hostilities stop today. In the case of some key sites, such as Qatar’s North Field gas site — a primary cog in the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) machine — recovery will take several years. In the case of gas, according to a recent comment from the General Secretary of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), Philip Mshelbila, the Iran war has “triggered a massive spike in price, returning the…

Last month, QatarEnergy declared force majeure on long-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts to buyers in Europe and Asia following severe damage to its Ras Laffan production facilities by Iran’s missile strikes. This disrupted ~20% of global LNG supply and triggered a sharp spike in natural gas prices. Thankfully, gas prices have pulled back to pre-war levels, with natural gas markets coping remarkably well with the loss, thanks to expected volumes to be delivered to the market outweighing current and expected reductions over the next…

Following the Mubaraz LNG tanker's exit from the Hormuz chokepoint in recent weeks, the first such transit since the conflict began, new ship-tracking data from Bloomberg late Tuesday afternoon show that the first crude supertanker, Idemitsu Maru, is also exiting the critical waterway. Idemitsu Maru, operated by the tanker unit of Japan's Idemitsu Kosan, marks yet another positive signal for Gulf energy flows, but activity in the waterway remains deeply depressed. Two key things we must point out: first, the tanker is through; second, the tanker…

The American Petroleum Institute (API) estimated that crude oil inventories in the United States fell by 1.79 million barrels in the week ending April 24. In the week prior, US crude oil inventories fell by 4.4 million barrels. Analysts had expected a 300,000-barrel build. US crude inventories are up 45 million barrels so far this year, according to API data. Inventories in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) continue to draw down to alleviate the pressure on prices. For week ending April 24, 7.1 million barrels left the SPR, bringing the…

Saudi Arabia’s energy giant Aramco is best known for its energy investments, but the company is also busy diversifying across industries. Right now, Aramco is building a presence in artificial intelligence development via its venture capital division, eyeing not just returns but possibly nurturing a local AI industry in Saudi Arabia. Aramco Ventures has $7.5 billion in assets under management and is putting a lot of that into “deep technology startups” founded on “solid science and engineering”, according to the venture…

The government’s borrowing costs have risen to their joint highest level since the 2008 financial crisis, after a sharp jump in the oil price prompted a sell-off in UK debt because of concerns over inflation. The yield on the 10-year gilt – the main benchmark for any government’s long-term ability to borrow – climbed back above five per cent for only the third time since the Iran war broke out on Tuesday, laying bare the extent to which Britain is almost uniquely exposed to the ongoing energy shock. The UK’s government…

Germany is hunting for solutions to reroute crude oil supplies to the PCK Schwedt refinery after Russia said it would halt Kazakh oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1, with roughly 43,000 barrels per day (bpd) now at risk. Berlin is now in talks with Poland over moving replacement barrels through the port of Gdansk, with potential deliveries flowing onward to Schwedt, the refinery that supplies much of eastern Germany, including Berlin, with fuels. The plant has become a recurring pressure point since Germany moved away from…

Germany is hunting for solutions to reroute crude oil supplies to the PCK Schwedt refinery after Russia said it would halt Kazakh oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline starting May 1, with roughly 43,000 barrels per day (bpd) now at risk. Berlin is now in talks with Poland over moving replacement barrels through the port of Gdansk, with potential deliveries flowing onward to Schwedt, the refinery that supplies much of eastern Germany, including Berlin, with fuels. The plant has become a recurring pressure point since Germany moved away from…

China’s top refiner posted a strong first quarter as higher crude prices lifted inventory values and stable domestic fuel sales helped to offset pressure from disrupted Middle East supply. China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported first-quarter net income of 17 billion yuan ($2.49 billion), up 28% from a year earlier, according to a Shanghai exchange filing. The results land as major oil companies begin showing how the Iran-driven supply shock is feeding through earnings. Throughput at Sinopec slipped 0.2% year over year…

China’s top refiner posted a strong first quarter as higher crude prices lifted inventory values and stable domestic fuel sales helped to offset pressure from disrupted Middle East supply. China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported first-quarter net income of 17 billion yuan ($2.49 billion), up 28% from a year earlier, according to a Shanghai exchange filing. The results land as major oil companies begin showing how the Iran-driven supply shock is feeding through earnings. Throughput at Sinopec slipped 0.2% year over year…

Trump's blockade is having a predictable effect on Iran's economy and oil industry, with reports that the regime is scrambling to repurpose old and rusty tankers as floating storage.  Kharg Island is hitting capacity and the results could lead to disaster for Iran's oil wells.  The regime is reportedly moving to expand crude storage at the island, where around 90% of their energy exports are processed, by reactivating a 30-year-old crude carrier called M/T Nasha.  It's a bad sign for Iran, indicating that the country’s main…

Active lawsuits in Michigan and Wisconsin are targeting sections of Enbridge’s Line 5 pipeline over environmental concerns in a complex and ever-expanding legal fight. Michigan has an active state-court lawsuit against Enbridge, while in Wisconsin, the Bad River Band of Lake Superior Chippewa and environmental groups are challenging the pipeline in federal and state court. In April, the United States Supreme Court sided with Michigan that a ruling over a section of an ageing pipeline beneath a Great Lakes channel must stay in state court.…

The European Union would prefer Southeast Asian countries to diversify their oil supply by buying oil from producers other than Russia, the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday during meetings of representatives with ASEAN countries. Southeast Asian economies such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam were the first to feel fuel shortages after the blocked Strait of Hormuz cut off most of their regular crude and fuel supply from the Middle East. The Philippines, which sourced 98% of all its oil from the Middle…

The European Union would prefer Southeast Asian countries to diversify their oil supply by buying oil from producers other than Russia, the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday during meetings of representatives with ASEAN countries. Southeast Asian economies such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam were the first to feel fuel shortages after the blocked Strait of Hormuz cut off most of their regular crude and fuel supply from the Middle East. The Philippines, which sourced 98% of all its oil from the Middle…

China is on course to nearly double its data center capacity within five years, with 28 gigawatts (GW) of new projects expected to come online by 2030, adding to the 32 GW already installed as of the end of last year, according to new analysis from Rystad Energy. Based on currently announced projects, with additional capacity likely to follow, this expansion is expected to lift data center power consumption to 289 terawatt-hours (TWh) by 2030. That is more than double levels seen last year and would account for around 2.3% of China’s total…

The European Union would prefer Southeast Asian countries to diversify their oil supply by buying oil from producers other than Russia, the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday during meetings of representatives with ASEAN countries. Southeast Asian economies such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam were the first to feel fuel shortages after the blocked Strait of Hormuz cut off most of their regular crude and fuel supply from the Middle East. The Philippines, which sourced 98% of all its oil from the Middle…

Brent surges above $110 as fears grow that the U.S.-Iran war could drag into a prolonged conflict, while the UAE’s shock OPEC exit raises questions over a broader Middle East energy realignment. Oil Boom, Currency Zoom: Energy Winners Surge as Importers Feel the Burn- The US-Iran conflict has propelled currencies from energy-exporting countries into the limelight, with windfall profits from exports of oil, gas and metals helping them to outperform the US dollar.- Strategists from JP Morgan and Deutsche Bank have singled out the Norwegian…

The world’s top crude exporter, Saudi Arabia, is expected to slash its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude loading for Asia in June from the record-highs for May as the premiums of the Middle Eastern benchmarks eased this month. Saudi oil giant Aramco is widely expected to announce in early May a reduction of the OSP of the flagship Arab Light crude by between $5 and $12 per barrel compared to the Oman/Dubai average, off which Middle Eastern producers price their crude going to Asia, a Reuters survey of industry sources showed on Tuesday.…

The world’s top crude exporter, Saudi Arabia, is expected to slash its official selling prices (OSPs) for crude loading for Asia in June from the record-highs for May as the premiums of the Middle Eastern benchmarks eased this month. Saudi oil giant Aramco is widely expected to announce in early May a reduction of the OSP of the flagship Arab Light crude by between $5 and $12 per barrel compared to the Oman/Dubai average, off which Middle Eastern producers price their crude going to Asia, a Reuters survey of industry sources showed on Tuesday.…