Crude oil prices experienced one of the most volatile trading weeks of 2026 during the period of May 3 through May 7, as traders reacted to the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, and sudden changes in diplomatic negotiations. June West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures swung violently between a high of $107.46 and a low of $88.66 before stabilizing near $97 a barrel by the end of the week. The sharp price swings reflected how sensitive the market remains to supply disruptions and geopolitical headlines. Strait…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict The military situation around Hormuz remains active even as diplomacy accelerates behind the scenes. US Central Command said Thursday that Iranian forces launched missiles, drones, and small boats toward US naval vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz toward the Gulf of Oman, including the USS Truxtun, USS Rafael Peralta, and USS Mason. According to Centcom, no US assets were hit. American forces then carried out retaliatory strikes on missile and drone launch positions, command facilities, and intelligence…

China is one of the few major economies coming out of the Iran shock with potentially more leverage, not less. While the Hormuz blockade decimates Gulf trade routes and energy markets, China’s factories are still producing, its export base is strong, and the expansive and expensive corridor systems it has been building for years are now coming in very handy. Pakistan’s decision to open transit routes into Iran is the clearest example of how those Chinese-built corridors are now being used. Tehran has relied heavily on UAE ports for…

An oil tanker that had passed through the Strait of Hormuz in mid-April arrived on Friday at a port in South Korea, shipping the first crude cargo to the country via Hormuz since the war began. The Malta-flagged Odessa crude oil tanker arrived at Daesan on South Korea’s west coast laden with 1 million barrels of crude. Such volumes of oil are equal to about 35-50% of South Korea’s daily oil consumption. Before the Iran war began, South Korea imported most of the crude it consumes from the Middle East and is one of the most exposed Asian…

Global seaborne jet fuel exports crashed to a seasonal low in April as supplies remained trapped in the Middle East and Asian refiners slashed run rates amid lower crude availability, energy flows analytics firm Vortexa said in a report on Friday. Global seaborne exports of jet/kerosene fuels slumped to as low as 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) in April, down by 630,000 bpd from the same month last year. That's also at the lowest end of the ten-year range between 2016 and 2025, Vortexa's freight tracking data showed. The crash in exports of jet…

More than 40 India-bound vessels, nearly half of which carry energy products, are still trapped in the Persian Gulf, unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, officials told Indian outlet The Economic Times on Friday. The ships are laden with crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and LNG, as well as fertilizer and other products.    A total of 13 ships flagged to India are still stuck west of the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Indian government. The Indian authorities have drafted a list of 41 vessels for priority evacuation…

For decades, Western militaries have been sleepwalking into a strategic crisis. A crisis that the war in Ukraine revealed, and the escalating conflict in the Middle East is now making existential. Modern warfare is no longer dominated by tanks, jets, and billion-dollar weapons systems. Instead, it is defined by drones. Ukraine learned this lesson the hard way in 2024, when it had to produce an estimated 1.2 million drones to counter Russian advances on the battlefield. These weren’t fringe systems or experimental tools. They became the backbone…

Asia is trying to save itself any way it can. With Gulf barrels harder to get, buyers are pulling crude from wherever it is still available – even from as far away as Brazil. The barrels are alike to those stranded by the Strait of Hormuz blockage, Asia’s appetite for them need is soaring. The only problem is that they have to cross half the world first. The timing of the US-Iran war could hardly be better for Brazil. Its crude exports reached a record 2.3 million b/d in March and stayed at the same level in April, just as China was…

International companies are flocking back to Venezuela, with deals worth billions getting closed under U.S. management of the country’s oil resources. Venezuela’s oil exports hit a seven-year high in March, and this may be just the beginning of a major rebound. Big Oil was quick to signal interest in Venezuela’s oil—and natural gas—almost as soon as the United States ousted President Nicolas Maduro and effectively took over Venezuela’s oil industry. As early as January, Shell and BP were reported to seek a license…

The U.S.-Iran war has created a military crisis in the Gulf. But for oil markets, the more dangerous battlefield may now be the futures curve. The first shock was geographic. It appeared on maps, vessel-tracking screens, insurance desks, and refinery procurement calls: the Strait of Hormuz restricted, tankers delayed, Gulf exports impaired, and refiners scrambling for replacement barrels. The second shock is financial. It is moving through hedge books, margin accounts, cargo-finance lines, refinery schedules, LNG contracts, diesel inventories,…

A decade ago, China was widely expected to become a shale powerhouse. By some estimates, it holds more technically recoverable shale gas than the United States, and there was real optimism that it could replicate the U.S. shale revolution. So far, that surge hasn’t materialized. China’s gas production is rising, but in 2025 accounted for only 6% of the world’s production, a far cry from the U.S. share of 25%. There are several reasons for this, including more complex geology and deeper formations, but one factor receives far less…

Canada has recorded its first trade surplus in six months, defying forecasts of a deficit thanks to surging oil and gold prices. Canada’s merchandise trade balance swung to a $1.78 billion surplus in March against expectations of a shortfall of $2.88 billion, with total exports rising 8.5% to $72.8 billion, the second-highest level on record. The country’s energy exports jumped 15.6% Y/Y, reaching their highest level since late 2022, largely driven by a nearly 20% spike in crude oil prices amid the war in Iran. Canada's exports of metallic…

Iran has cut oil production by roughly 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) as exports stall and storage runs out, according to U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright. “It looks like they’ve likely already cut back their production, maybe by 400,000 barrels a day,” Wright said in an interview on Thursday. “They’ll likely continue to ramp down their production as their storage fills and their inability to export oil.” The cuts come as a U.S. naval blockade has sharply reduced Iran’s ability to move crude out of the…

Canada’s oil sands can grow, but getting the barrels out of the country is a problem. This is a constraint that has defined the sector for years. President Scott Stauth told analysts the industry needs a West Coast export line to unlock meaningful growth. “We need that pipeline to be able to grow oil sands in a significant way,” Stauth said, pointing to a proposed 1 million bpd line from Alberta to British Columbia’s northwest coast. Production is already pushing limits. Canadian Natural averaged 1.64 million boepd in the…

Canada’s oil sands can grow, but getting the barrels out of the country is a problem. This is a constraint that has defined the sector for years. President Scott Stauth told analysts the industry needs a West Coast export line to unlock meaningful growth. “We need that pipeline to be able to grow oil sands in a significant way,” Stauth said, pointing to a proposed 1 million bpd line from Alberta to British Columbia’s northwest coast. Production is already pushing limits. Canadian Natural averaged 1.64 million boepd in the…

A deal announced at the White House last year for an American company to mine tungsten in Kazakhstan is moving forward after the company closed the deal with the country’s state-owned mining company. At almost the same time, Cove Kaz Capital, the American mining entity, and a shell company in which US President Donald Trump’s sons reportedly have a significant stake, announced an intention to merge, according to a report published by the Financial Times. The merged entity would seek to become a publicly traded company. Cove Kaz Capital,…

The United States has sanctioned Iraq’s deputy oil minister and several Iran-aligned militia leaders, stepping directly into a part of the oil trade that has been operating in the gray since the war began. The Treasury Department accused Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly of facilitating the diversion of Iraqi crude to benefit Iran and affiliated militias. The move also targets senior figures tied to Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq. Any U.S. assets are frozen, and Americans are barred from doing business…

The United States has sanctioned Iraq’s deputy oil minister and several Iran-aligned militia leaders, stepping directly into a part of the oil trade that has been operating in the gray since the war began. The Treasury Department accused Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly of facilitating the diversion of Iraqi crude to benefit Iran and affiliated militias. The move also targets senior figures tied to Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq. Any U.S. assets are frozen, and Americans are barred from doing business…

The United States has sanctioned Iraq’s deputy oil minister and several Iran-aligned militia leaders, stepping directly into a part of the oil trade that has been operating in the gray since the war began. The Treasury Department accused Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly of facilitating the diversion of Iraqi crude to benefit Iran and affiliated militias. The move also targets senior figures tied to Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq. Any U.S. assets are frozen, and Americans are barred from doing business…

While conventional wisdom, especially after Trump’s counter-blockade of Iran’s blockade, holds that the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, the reality is that the UAE is now running loaded crude tankers through the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz with transponders switched off — just like sanctioned Iranian ghost fleets in the pre-war period — just to pry loose a fraction of the oil bottled up in the Gulf. According to shipping data reported by Reuters, industry sources, and satellite tracking, Emirati state-owned…