For decades, Western militaries have been sleepwalking into a strategic crisis. A crisis that the war in Ukraine revealed, and the escalating conflict in the Middle East is now making existential. Modern warfare is no longer dominated by tanks, jets, and billion-dollar weapons systems. Instead, it is defined by drones. Ukraine learned this lesson the hard way in 2024, when it had to produce an estimated 1.2 million drones to counter Russian advances on the battlefield. These weren’t fringe systems or experimental tools. They became the backbone…

Asia is trying to save itself any way it can. With Gulf barrels harder to get, buyers are pulling crude from wherever it is still available – even from as far away as Brazil. The barrels are alike to those stranded by the Strait of Hormuz blockage, Asia’s appetite for them need is soaring. The only problem is that they have to cross half the world first. The timing of the US-Iran war could hardly be better for Brazil. Its crude exports reached a record 2.3 million b/d in March and stayed at the same level in April, just as China was…

International companies are flocking back to Venezuela, with deals worth billions getting closed under U.S. management of the country’s oil resources. Venezuela’s oil exports hit a seven-year high in March, and this may be just the beginning of a major rebound. Big Oil was quick to signal interest in Venezuela’s oil—and natural gas—almost as soon as the United States ousted President Nicolas Maduro and effectively took over Venezuela’s oil industry. As early as January, Shell and BP were reported to seek a license…

The U.S.-Iran war has created a military crisis in the Gulf. But for oil markets, the more dangerous battlefield may now be the futures curve. The first shock was geographic. It appeared on maps, vessel-tracking screens, insurance desks, and refinery procurement calls: the Strait of Hormuz restricted, tankers delayed, Gulf exports impaired, and refiners scrambling for replacement barrels. The second shock is financial. It is moving through hedge books, margin accounts, cargo-finance lines, refinery schedules, LNG contracts, diesel inventories,…

A decade ago, China was widely expected to become a shale powerhouse. By some estimates, it holds more technically recoverable shale gas than the United States, and there was real optimism that it could replicate the U.S. shale revolution. So far, that surge hasn’t materialized. China’s gas production is rising, but in 2025 accounted for only 6% of the world’s production, a far cry from the U.S. share of 25%. There are several reasons for this, including more complex geology and deeper formations, but one factor receives far less…

Canada has recorded its first trade surplus in six months, defying forecasts of a deficit thanks to surging oil and gold prices. Canada’s merchandise trade balance swung to a $1.78 billion surplus in March against expectations of a shortfall of $2.88 billion, with total exports rising 8.5% to $72.8 billion, the second-highest level on record. The country’s energy exports jumped 15.6% Y/Y, reaching their highest level since late 2022, largely driven by a nearly 20% spike in crude oil prices amid the war in Iran. Canada's exports of metallic…

Iran has cut oil production by roughly 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) as exports stall and storage runs out, according to U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright. “It looks like they’ve likely already cut back their production, maybe by 400,000 barrels a day,” Wright said in an interview on Thursday. “They’ll likely continue to ramp down their production as their storage fills and their inability to export oil.” The cuts come as a U.S. naval blockade has sharply reduced Iran’s ability to move crude out of the…

Canada’s oil sands can grow, but getting the barrels out of the country is a problem. This is a constraint that has defined the sector for years. President Scott Stauth told analysts the industry needs a West Coast export line to unlock meaningful growth. “We need that pipeline to be able to grow oil sands in a significant way,” Stauth said, pointing to a proposed 1 million bpd line from Alberta to British Columbia’s northwest coast. Production is already pushing limits. Canadian Natural averaged 1.64 million boepd in the…

Canada’s oil sands can grow, but getting the barrels out of the country is a problem. This is a constraint that has defined the sector for years. President Scott Stauth told analysts the industry needs a West Coast export line to unlock meaningful growth. “We need that pipeline to be able to grow oil sands in a significant way,” Stauth said, pointing to a proposed 1 million bpd line from Alberta to British Columbia’s northwest coast. Production is already pushing limits. Canadian Natural averaged 1.64 million boepd in the…

A deal announced at the White House last year for an American company to mine tungsten in Kazakhstan is moving forward after the company closed the deal with the country’s state-owned mining company. At almost the same time, Cove Kaz Capital, the American mining entity, and a shell company in which US President Donald Trump’s sons reportedly have a significant stake, announced an intention to merge, according to a report published by the Financial Times. The merged entity would seek to become a publicly traded company. Cove Kaz Capital,…

The United States has sanctioned Iraq’s deputy oil minister and several Iran-aligned militia leaders, stepping directly into a part of the oil trade that has been operating in the gray since the war began. The Treasury Department accused Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly of facilitating the diversion of Iraqi crude to benefit Iran and affiliated militias. The move also targets senior figures tied to Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq. Any U.S. assets are frozen, and Americans are barred from doing business…

The United States has sanctioned Iraq’s deputy oil minister and several Iran-aligned militia leaders, stepping directly into a part of the oil trade that has been operating in the gray since the war began. The Treasury Department accused Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly of facilitating the diversion of Iraqi crude to benefit Iran and affiliated militias. The move also targets senior figures tied to Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq. Any U.S. assets are frozen, and Americans are barred from doing business…

The United States has sanctioned Iraq’s deputy oil minister and several Iran-aligned militia leaders, stepping directly into a part of the oil trade that has been operating in the gray since the war began. The Treasury Department accused Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij Al-Bahadly of facilitating the diversion of Iraqi crude to benefit Iran and affiliated militias. The move also targets senior figures tied to Kata’ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada and Asa’ib Ahl Al-Haq. Any U.S. assets are frozen, and Americans are barred from doing business…

While conventional wisdom, especially after Trump’s counter-blockade of Iran’s blockade, holds that the Strait of Hormuz is completely blocked, the reality is that the UAE is now running loaded crude tankers through the Iranian-controlled Strait of Hormuz with transponders switched off — just like sanctioned Iranian ghost fleets in the pre-war period — just to pry loose a fraction of the oil bottled up in the Gulf. According to shipping data reported by Reuters, industry sources, and satellite tracking, Emirati state-owned…

Chinese fuel trader HY Energy is suing U.S. banking giants JP Morgan and Citigroup for blocked payments to a Chinese oil firm a year before the latter was sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury for dealing with Iranian oil, Bloomberg reports. HY Energy, a regional fuel trader in eastern China, alleges in two separate lawsuits filed in Shanghai and Beijing that JP Morgan and Citi failed to process and complete transfers for a total of $40 million to China Oil and Petroleum Company Limited (COPC) back in 2023. This was months before COPC was designated…

Global crude oil and fuel inventories are crashing at a record speed as the supply shock from the Middle East is too big to absorb without stock depletion. While the futures markets trade on sentiment and hopes that a U.S.-Iran deal could soon lead to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the actual physical disruption is enormous. It has already erased the oversupply that the market faced at the start of the Iran war. The initial buffers are gone, and now commercial inventories are depleting so fast that even an imminent reopening of the Strait…

The United States and Israel’s bombing campaign has left much of Iran’s infrastructure and industries in tatters, disrupting domestic production and hiking prices for basic food items.A US sea blockade has intensified the economic pressure on Iran, hampering its trade through the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime chokepoint that has been effectively closed since the war began on February 28.In response, Tehran has turned to alternative routes, trucking goods from neighboring Pakistan and Turkey as well as shipping cargo from Russia,…

Airlines will have to continue reimbursing travelers if they cancel flights due to high jet fuel prices, EU Sustainable Transport and Tourism Commissioner, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, told the Financial Times in an interview published on Thursday. European airlines are struggling with a spike in jet fuel prices, while officials and analysts warn that Europe has just weeks before it feels kerosene shortages. Tzitzikostas played down estimates that jet fuel shortages could hit Europe in June if the situation at the Strait of Hormuz does not improve,…

Airlines will have to continue reimbursing travelers if they cancel flights due to high jet fuel prices, EU Sustainable Transport and Tourism Commissioner, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, told the Financial Times in an interview published on Thursday. European airlines are struggling with a spike in jet fuel prices, while officials and analysts warn that Europe has just weeks before it feels kerosene shortages. Tzitzikostas played down estimates that jet fuel shortages could hit Europe in June if the situation at the Strait of Hormuz does not improve,…

Airlines will have to continue reimbursing travelers if they cancel flights due to high jet fuel prices, EU Sustainable Transport and Tourism Commissioner, Apostolos Tzitzikostas, told the Financial Times in an interview published on Thursday. European airlines are struggling with a spike in jet fuel prices, while officials and analysts warn that Europe has just weeks before it feels kerosene shortages. Tzitzikostas played down estimates that jet fuel shortages could hit Europe in June if the situation at the Strait of Hormuz does not improve,…