Oil prices turned to a gain Friday after Iran poured cold water on growing market hopes for a near-term agreement with the United States, reminding traders yet again that optimism around diplomacy and reality on the ground are not always moving in the same direction. Brent crude rose 0.78%, while U.S. benchmark WTI climbed 0.20% to $96.54. The move reversed part of Thursday’s selloff, which briefly pushed both benchmarks to their lowest levels in nearly two weeks after comments from U.S. officials suggested progress in negotiations. That…

Digitalization and artificial intelligence (AI) will create close to $500 billion in cumulative value for E&P companies between 2026 and 2030, according to Rystad Energy estimates. This value is captured through cost reductions from more efficient operations, production increases from higher uptime and increased recovery, and compressed development timelines. Cost reductions and production increases are the largest value pools and contribute roughly equally through 2030. Exploration and production (E&P) players currently investing in digital…

The total number of active drilling rigs for oil and gas in the United States rose this week, according to new data that Baker Hughes published on Friday, bringing the total rig count in the US to 558,  down just 8 from this same time last year. The number of active oil rigs rose by 10 to 425 during the latest reporting period, according to the data. This is 30 below this same time last year. The number of gas rigs fell by 3. Gas rigs now sit at 125, which is 17 more than this time last year. The miscellaneous rig stayed the same at 8. The…

A court in Kazakhstan has inserted itself into the Russia-Ukraine conflict, ruling in favor of the Ukrainian state gas entity Naftogaz in a $1.4-billion dispute with the Russian energy behemoth Gazprom. The judgment and order issued by the court of Astana International Finance Center (AIFC) endorses last year’s ICC International Court of Arbitration award in favor of Naftogaz. “The ICC Award dated 16 June 2025 … in the arbitration Case No. 27245/GL/DTI between the Claimant and the Defendant shall be recognized…

Ukraine targeted overnight the Yaroslavl oil refinery in Russia, escalating the drone attacks on Russian refining and oil exporting assets, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said on Friday. “Today, there was a report by Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Oleksandr Syrskyi on the use of long-range drones against Russian oil refining and export assets,” Zelenskyy wrote on social media. “In particular, overnight, the Defense Forces of Ukraine operated against targets associated with the Yaroslavl oil refinery…

Global oil markets remain under severe stress as Hormuz disruptions, weak economic data, and tightening inventories reshape energy flows worldwide. Friday, May 22, 2026 In a week of contradicting narratives, the largest ever US inventory drawdown sparked only a minor bullish moment as media reports of some form of negotiations between the US and Iran continue to resonate. With Europe posting its worst macroeconomic numbers since 2023 and the IEA warning of oil markets hitting the ‘red zone’ by July-August, ICE Brent is unlikely to fall…

Top EU officials said Friday that oil and gas prices are expected to remain elevated through at least the end of 2027, with the fallout from the Iran war likely to keep pressure on inflation and economic growth. Speaking after a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Cyprus on Friday, EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said higher energy costs are now expected to drive inflation to 3.1% this year and 2.4% in 2027—well above the bloc’s earlier forecast of 1.9% for this year. The concern is no longer just fuel prices themselves.…

Top EU officials said Friday that oil and gas prices are expected to remain elevated through at least the end of 2027, with the fallout from the Iran war likely to keep pressure on inflation and economic growth. Speaking after a meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Cyprus on Friday, EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis said higher energy costs are now expected to drive inflation to 3.1% this year and 2.4% in 2027—well above the bloc’s earlier forecast of 1.9% for this year. The concern is no longer just fuel prices themselves.…

Pakistan is encouraging oil producers from the Persian Gulf to set up crude reserve buffers at a planned Energy City near one of its ports, The Express Tribune reported on Friday. "In case of emergencies like the breakout of war, Pakistan will have the first right to utilise the oil reserves," a Pakistani official told the publication. Pakistan, which doesn't have crude reserves at present to act as a buffer in case of emergencies, has been reeling from the Middle East crisis and negotiating with Iran to secure the passage of cargoes through the…

Shortly after the outbreak of the war with the United States and Israel, Iran took control of the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil and gas supplies. By threatening and attacking international shipping, Iran brought maritime traffic to a virtual standstill, giving it significant leverage over its neighbors in the Persian Gulf and the global economy. Now, the Islamic Republic is formalizing its dominance over the strategic chokepoint by imposing a new transit regime. That is despite repeated warnings from the United States, which has…

China's fuel exports will rise only slightly in June from May as government restrictions on shipments largely remain in place to preserve supply for the domestic market amid the biggest oil disruption in history. China is expected to export about 550,000 metric tons of fuels next month, up from around 500,000 tons set to be shipped this month, trade sources with knowledge of the plans told Reuters on Friday. Days after the conflict in the Middle East erupted and led to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Chinese government moved to ban all…

July WTI crude oil delivered a volatile week as traders aggressively repriced geopolitical risk and then rapidly removed part of that premium on hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough between the United States and Iran. Through Thursday, May 21, July WTI posted a high of $105.21, a low of $95.76, and settled at $97.77, up $3.39, or 3.35%, for the week. The price action told a much bigger story than the weekly gain itself. Crude spent the early part of the week climbing sharply as traders focused on supply disruptions tied to Iran and the continuing…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict The biggest (and only, really) takeaway from the Trump-Xi meeting is that, as we mentioned last week and the week prior, this is all about Taiwan. All eyes are now on the $14-billion Taiwan arms package that Trump suddenly appears willing to drag his feet on, raising immediate questions about how far Washington is prepared to bend. Trump’s refusal to immediately approve the already Congress-cleared package, combined with his repeated emphasis on having an “amazing” meeting with Xi, is creating…

All the Hormuz chaos is giving Egypt another chance to become a gas hub. In the immediate term, Egypt is taking a hit, but the conflict is strengthening Cairo’s long-term East-Med gas position.  Right now, the Iran conflict means that Egypt has an immediate supply problem. Israeli gas exports to Egypt were disrupted after the conflict escalated, removing roughly 1.1 billion cubic feet per day from the Egyptian market. And domestic output was already under pressure amid rising electricity demand. Cairo has been forced to increase LNG…

A supertanker carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude is set to arrive in Japan early next week after clearing the Strait of Hormuz in late April, in the first shipment of Middle East crude to Japan via the chokepoint since the Iran war began on February 28. The very large crude carrier (VLCC) Idemitsu Maru, which had departed from Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura port in the Persian Gulf in mid-March, is expected to arrive in Nagoya on May 25, data on MarineTraffic showed. As of early Friday, the supertanker was close to the coasts of Japan.…

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi has urged the government to urgently explore an increase in the use of alternative energy sources, including biogas as a substitute for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), as the Middle East crisis is choking oil and gas supply to the world’s third-largest crude importer. Modi also urged ministers to move faster with implementing reforms to turn India into a developed nation by 2047, the goal for its 100th independence anniversary. India has been grappling with the energy crisis that the Iran war created.…

Risks to oil prices are firmly skewed higher amid plunging global oil inventories in the worst supply disruption in history, according to Barclays. The investment bank on Friday kept its $100 per barrel Brent forecast for 2026, but warned that the risks are skewed to the upside as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been draining U.S. and global inventories to multi-year lows.   “Inventory trends are signaling a 6-8 (million bpd) deficit with the U.S. inventories within reach of the lowest levels since 2020,” analysts at Barclays…

India’s power generation rose to a new all-time high amid hot weather that drove air-conditioning demand up, with thermal generation, most of its coming from coal power plants, covering 62% of demand. Power demand on Thursday hit 271 GW, on the “fourth consecutive day when the peak power demand (solar hours) reached a new all-time high,” India’s power ministry said, as quoted by AFP. After milder temperatures tempered demand growth in the fiscal year to March 2026 to the lowest level in six years, demand is now beating peak…

India’s power generation rose to a new all-time high amid hot weather that drove air-conditioning demand up, with thermal generation, most of its coming from coal power plants, covering 62% of demand. Power demand on Thursday hit 271 GW, on the “fourth consecutive day when the peak power demand (solar hours) reached a new all-time high,” India’s power ministry said, as quoted by AFP. After milder temperatures tempered demand growth in the fiscal year to March 2026 to the lowest level in six years, demand is now beating peak…

Saudi crude exports have been falling since the US- Iran war began, but the latest slide is no longer just a story of disrupted trade routes. Cargoes scheduled to sail from Saudi Arabia in May are now assessed at roughly 3.9 million b/d (historic lows), while almost every major Saudi buyer – China, Japan, South Korea, India and Taiwan – is cutting nominations for the months ahead. China, still Saudi Aramco’s largest customer, is expected to take only about 600,000 b/d of Saudi crude in June, roughly half April’s volume.…