Wary of Worsening Export Economics, Chinese Refiners Flushes Out Stocks - Chinese companies maximized their exports of oil products in November, ahead of an increase in government levies after Beijing reduced the country’s VAT rebate for product exports from 13% to 9%.    - The combined exports of gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel accounted for 920,000 b/d last month, according to Chinese GAC statistics, a whopping 28% month-on-month increase as oil companies flushed out their stocks. - Slashing the tax rebate would result in…

Light crude oil futures are facing bearish sentiment, largely driven by concerns over global economic growth and oil demand. Weak consumer spending data from China, the world’s largest oil importer, has cast doubt on the resilience of its economic recovery. Despite signs of improvement in industrial production, the broader outlook for Chinese demand remains subdued, as Beijing struggles to implement effective stimulus measures. Energy transition policies in China are also expected to cap long-term petroleum consumption, further dampening…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict Venezuela’s PDVSA and India’s Reliance Industries have resumed a cautious oil-for-naphtha swap arrangement paused under U.S. sanctions, signaling a recalibration of geopolitical oil strategies. With a U.S. license in hand since July, the swap delivered 1.9M barrels of Merey crude to India and 500,000 barrels of naphtha to Venezuela, reflecting mutual economic necessity as Venezuela leverages barter deals to sustain its oil sector while India cautiously tests the limits of U.S. tolerance. The market…

Turkey has mediated a deal between Ethiopia and Somalia to grant the former access to the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean, ending a year-long dispute that threatened to spark a regional conflict. But the new deal voids an earlier deal with Somalia’s breakaway region of Somaliland, which would have given Ethiopia a naval base in Somaliland in return for recognition of independence.  The Turkish deal, dubbed the “Ankara Declaration” would give Ethiopia alternative access to the Red Sea, without undermining Somalia’s sovereignty…

Iran’s oil is increasingly finding its way into floating storage offshore Southeast Asia instead of at customers as a recent raft of U.S. sanctions on tankers shipping Iranian oil has made Chinese buyers more careful. The volumes of Iranian oil stored on tankers at sea, predominantly offshore Malaysia’s eastern coasts, have swelled to their highest levels since the end of July, per data from Kpler cited by Bloomberg. As of December 15, a total of 16.82 million barrels of Iranian oil were sitting on tankers at sea without going anywhere.…

Sentiment in oil markets is decidedly bearish as the year draws to a close, with the Federal Reserve making it clear that it will not be aggressively cutting interest rates any time soon.Slower and shallower were the two key takeaways for the Federal Reserve's 2025 rate policy outlook, with a suggested prolonged pause in rate-cutting next year adding insult to the oil market’s injury. China remains a bearish factor for oil with almost all 2025 outlooks trying to outcompete one another in terms of bearishness, all this leading to a dip in…

The European Union should buy more oil and gas from the United States or risk tariffs, U.S. President-elect Donald Trump said on Friday. “I told the European Union that they must make up their tremendous deficit with the United States by the large scale purchase of our oil and gas,” Trump posted on the social media platform Truth Social. “Otherwise, it is TARIFFS all the way!!!” The U.S., the world’s largest LNG exporter ahead of Qatar and Australia, is a major supplier of LNG to Europe, which is looking to boost alternative…

President-elect Trump’s proposed tariffs and the heightened risk of trade wars would be major challenges to the global energy transition, Mike Henry, the chief executive of mining giant BHP, told the Financial Times. Escalating trade tensions and tariffs on many products could delay decision-making about investment in the supply of the minerals that would be crucial to advance the energy transition, Henry told FT in an interview published on Friday.   Protectionism from the United States is likely to ease “the aggressiveness with…

The rise of data centers and their quest for renewable energy to power AI technology will boost the growth of renewables even under President Donald Trump, the Americas head of Japan’s biggest bank, Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, told Reuters. “The new administration will be more constructive on fossil fuels, but that doesn't mean renewables go away,” Kevin Cronin, Regional Executive and CEO for The Americas at MUFG, told Reuters in an interview published on Friday.   Surging demand from data centers will boost renewables…

Qcells, a subsidiary of South Korea’s giant conglomerate Hanwha Corp, has set a world record for the efficiency of a large-area silicon solar cell with a top layer of perovskite, a development that could dramatically shrink the size of projects and slash costs. Qcells says it has achieved cell efficiency of 28.6% on a large commercial-sized cell known as an M10 using the technology, considerably higher than 27% efficiency for crystalline silicon cells and around 21% for traditional commercial silicon solar panels. To be fair, China's Longi…

As the year draws to a close, data has shown that oil prices have moved in the narrowest range since 2019, suggesting the excessive volatility of the past three years is over. A perception of soft demand and one of abundant supply, even on hold, have contributed to the “calm waters” on the market. The question now is whether it would extend into the next year. First, on the demand front, news from China has led oil prices this year. Since the news has overwhelmingly been seen as overall negative by commodity trading advisers and their…

The Biden administration is expected to permit the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to grant permission to 12 states, including California, this month to ban the sale of new gasoline-powered cars by 2035. If the move goes ahead, it would be one of the most ambitious U.S. climate policies to date, alongside the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). However, President-elect Donald Trump could revoke this permission once he takes office, which falls in line with his plans to reduce the reach of the IRA and other climate policies.  The…

Via Metal Miner The Global Precious Metals MMI (Monthly Metals Index) dropped month-over-month by 7.66%. Precious metals prices showed mixed trends over the past month, shaped by central bank decisions, geopolitical uncertainties and shifts in market demand. While gold and silver continued to rise, platinum and palladium encountered declining momentum. Precious Metals Prices: Palladium Palladium prices have faced downward pressure as the growing popularity of electric vehicles diminishes the need for palladium-based catalytic converters and mining…

North Dakota, the third-largest producing state in the U.S., saw its crude production fall by 520,000 barrels per day in October after operators shut in wells to protect against wildfire damage. October production declined to 1.178 million barrels per day (bpd), with production yet to return to pre-crisis levels. According to Mark Bohrer, assistant director of the oil and gas division at the North Dakota Department of Mineral Resources, the state's rig count is currently steady at 37 in December, but could increase to the mid-40s over the next…

Following his election victory in early November, US President-elect Donald Trump has filled key positions in his upcoming administration with figures that he hopes will propel a policy of “energy dominance” for the country. If confirmed by the Senate, the second iteration of the Trump administration will include Chris Wright, the chief executive officer of frac services company Liberty Energy, as Secretary of Energy. In addition, Doug Burgum, the Governor of oil-rich North Dakota, will assume the role of Secretary of the Interior and…

Argentina's YPF has hooked Shell for a $50 billion LNG project that could put the country's energy game on the global map. Announced Thursday, the deal sees Shell stepping in to kick off the first phase of Argentina LNG, aiming to churn out 10 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas per year. That’s a lot of gas and a big leap for a country that’s been itching to cash in on its vast reserves. The project, drawing from the mammoth Vaca Muerta shale formation—the world’s second-largest unconventional gas reserve—plans…

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s chief policy adviser, Hikmet Hajiyev, has stated that Baku is demanding the withdrawal of the European Union monitoring mission before a peace treaty can be signed with Armenia.  The EU deployed the monitoring mission in early 2023 along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border following an escalation of gunfire exchanges. Subsequently, Azerbaijani forces overran the last Armenian-held areas of the hotly contested Nagorno-Karabakh territory in September 2023, spurring the mass exodus of the Karabakh Armenian…

A high-seas oil tango is back on between Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA and India’s Reliance Industries, rekindling a swap arrangement paused by U.S. sanctions. This revival, greenlit by a U.S. license in July, signals a cautious step forward for both players. But onlookers shouldn't break out the champagne just yet. Earlier this month, a supertanker brimming with 1.9 million barrels of Venezuela’s Merey heavy crude set sail for India’s Sikka port. In return, Reliance delivered 500,000 barrels of heavy naphtha to PDVSA—a…

Ever seen a massive tanker ship...with wind sails? You might soon. That's because the Sohar Max, a 400,000-deadweight-ton vessel, was just retrofitted with five 35-meter rotor sails at China's COSCO Zhoushan shipyard, according to Bloomberg. The purpose is to reduce fuel use by 6% and cut annual carbon emissions by 3,000 tons.  Bloomberg reported that the shipping industry already faces regulatory pressure to reduce emissions. Rotor sails remain uncommon, and the adoption of wind technologies hinges on cost savings. Their appeal may grow as…

Industry groups are doubling down on calls for the U.S. Administration to lift the pause on LNG export permits, a day after Biden’s Department of Energy urged caution in approvals and a month ahead of the inauguration of President-elect Donald Trump.   The DOE study on the energy, economic, and environmental impact of U.S. LNG exports comes nearly a year after the Biden Administration halted in January all pending decisions on U.S. LNG export projects until the Department of Energy can update the underlying analyses for authorizations.…