The crude oil market traded with sharp volatility this week as traders balanced OPEC+ production increases, renewed geopolitical risks, and the threat of U.S. tariffs against evidence of strong underlying demand. This interplay shaped price action, with the market testing downside levels but finding bids on signs that supply additions may be absorbed more easily than feared. OPEC+ Supply Increases Pressure Oil Prices Forecast OPEC+ made headlines by announcing a 548,000 bpd production increase for August, a sharp acceleration from the previous…

I have said it before a few times, but, in general, if a market move doesn’t make sense to me, the first thing I do is check my own assumptions. It is, after all, much more likely that I have made a mistake in my analysis than it is that the collective wisdom of thousands of highly paid experts has missed something important. Every now and again, though, try as I might, I cannot see why a particular stock is being bought or sold, or why there is a disparity in performance within a sector or industry. Lithium stocks are right now a puzzle…

Shell has received environmental authorization to drill up to five deepwater wells to explore for oil and gas off the west coast of South Africa. “Should viable resources ?be found offshore, this could significantly contribute to? South Africa’s energy security and the government’s economic development programmes,” the supermajor said in a statement carried by Reuters. The company did not provide details of the drilling plans. Shell applied last year for environmental authorizations to drill ultra-deepwater wells offshore…

Global oil supply growth is expected to materially exceed demand growth this year despite the tight market balance in the peak summer consumption season, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its monthly report on Friday. Following OPEC+’s supersized production hike for August, the IEA revised up its estimate of global oil supply growth to 2.1 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025 in its Oil Market Report for July, up by 300,000 bpd from last month’s projection of 1.8 million bpd growth. At the same time, global oil demand…

Lower oil and gas prices are expected to dent the second-quarter earnings at BP, despite higher output and stronger refining margins. BP’s realizations in the oil production and operations segment are expected to be $600 million-$800 million lower in the second quarter compared to the first quarter, the supermajor said in a trading statement on Friday ahead of publishing full Q2 results on August 5. Brent oil prices averaged $67.88 per barrel in the second quarter compared to $75.73 a barrel in the first quarter 2025, the company said. BP’s…

Australia’s rare earths producers saw their shares jump on Friday as the U.S. Department of Defense’s deal with U.S. rare earth producer MP Materials boosted sentiment across the Western industry amid Chinese export controls. Shares in Australia’s Lynas Rare Earths, the world’s biggest producer outside China, surged by 17% on the Australian Securities Exchange on Friday. The stock surge sent Lynas Rare Earths shares to their highest level since August 2022. Critical minerals producer Iluka Resources jumped by as much as…

Indonesia’s attorney general's office has widened the corruption investigation into oil procurement involving state oil and gas firm Pertamina, which is alleged to have cost $17.6 billion (285 trillion Indonesian rupiahs) in economic losses to the country. In a follow-up to the probe, Indonesia has named nine more suspects in the graft case involving the procurement of crude and oil products. Six of the newly named suspects are former executives at units of the state oil and gas firm, and three are from private companies. These are a former…

Brazil is preparing to defend its oil export sector as former U.S. President Donald Trump threatens to impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports starting August 1. The move has escalated tensions between the two countries, with Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva vowing reciprocal action: “If he charges us 50%, we’ll charge him 50%,” Lula told local media outlet Record. Oil is Brazil’s top export to the United States, and until now it had been exempt from a 10% tariff already imposed on other Brazilian goods.…

Cost-cutting among energy companies is all the rage today. Oil prices are stable, but memories of recent devastation are still fresh, so Big Oil is cutting costs to stay in shape. One way to do it: centralize operations, which is what Chevron is doing right now. The idea is straightforward: simplicity is cheaper than complicatedness. So Chevron is going simpler by having just one global offshore business division manage all of its offshore operations, from the Gulf to Nigeria, and just one division handling human resources, information technology…

Huge shale gas reserves are laying the foundations of pipeline and LNG exports out of Argentina, which could make South America’s second-largest economy a major force in regional and global gas supply. Argentina has the resource base—the vast unconventional reserves in the Vaca Muerta shale basin in the Neuquen province. But it needs to build up infrastructure to ship the gas from supply centers to interstate regional pipelines and planned LNG export facilities. Argentina also needs to continue with the market reforms launched by business-friendly…

Artificial intelligence is rapidly changing the world around us as our systems get smarter, and the resource and energy use of large language models grow ever larger. In the energy sector, artificial intelligence represents a double-edged sword: AI could help the sector overcome some of the hurdles involved in maintaining global energy security while we transition to cleaner alternatives, but it could also pose an existential threat to vulnerable power grids if used indiscriminately. Artificial intelligence requires a staggering amount of energy…

The European Commission has proposed a major overhaul to its Russian oil price cap regime, introducing a floating benchmark tied to global crude prices in an effort to regain control over a sanctions tool that has lost impact as oil markets decline, Reuters reported on Thursday.  Under the new draft plan, disclosed Thursday, the existing $60-per-barrel cap on Russian seaborne crude would be replaced by a flexible mechanism that tracks international prices, likely pegged to Brent, while staying below market rates to maintain pressure on Kremlin…

The UK government has ruled out the introduction of a zonal energy pricing system that would have seen regions closer to renewable energy sources likelier to see lower prices.  Ed Miliband’s Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has opted to reform the existing system by reviewing the way transmission charges work and incentivising the private sector to invest in renewable energy in areas of higher demand.  Consultation on a zonal energy pricing system lasted three years. Greg Jackson, founder and head of Octopus Energy, was…

Amid escalating tension with Armenia stemming from Yerevan’s desire to pivot westward, and lacking the ability to offer economic incentives, Russia is resorting to a traditional tactic to get its way: throw troops at the problem. A memo purportedly written by a high-ranking commander of Russia’s Southern Military District, and leaked by Ukrainian military intelligence, indicates that Russia is bolstering its troop contingent at its 102nd military base near the Armenian city of Gyumri. The document supposedly outlines steps needed to…

Via Metal Miner The Automotive MMI (Monthly Metals Index) moved sideways, inching up by 2.29%. While the index has maintained a mostly sideways trend over the past year, short-term volatility may be on the way. President Trump recently announced a 50% tariff on imported copper, a move expected to impact U.S. automotive manufacturing firms that source the red metal. Trump’s 50% Copper Tariff Stuns Automotive Manufacturing Supply Chain President Trump’s surprise July 8–9, 2025 announcement of a 50% tariff on imported copper (which…

As LNG Canada shipped its first LNG cargo from the newly completed facility in Kitimat, on the northwest coast of British Columbia, activity is ramping up on the East Coast especially offshore natural gas. LNG Canada consists of an export plant that cools the natural gas to a liquid using a combination of hydroelectricity and natural gas, states LNG Canada — a consortium of Shell, Mitsubishi Corporation, Petronas, PetroChina and Korea Gas Corp. The accompanying pipeline, called Coastal GasLink, is a partnership owned by affiliates…

Crude futures fell over 2% Thursday as traders reacted to fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, raising alarms over future oil demand in key growth markets. At 12:19 p.m. ET, Brent crude was trading down 1.80%, at $68.93 per barrel, while WTI dropped to $66.97, shedding 2.06% on the day. In comments made Wednesday evening, Trump warned of a broadening tariff regime targeting Chinese imports, citing ongoing imbalances and Beijing’s trade practices. While no specific measures were announced, the tone of escalation rattled energy…

Crude futures fell over 2% Thursday as traders reacted to fresh tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, raising alarms over future oil demand in key growth markets. At 12:19 p.m. ET, Brent crude was trading down 1.80%, at $68.93 per barrel, while WTI dropped to $66.97, shedding 2.06% on the day. In comments made Wednesday evening, Trump warned of a broadening tariff regime targeting Chinese imports, citing ongoing imbalances and Beijing’s trade practices. While no specific measures were announced, the tone of escalation rattled energy…

France’s solar power generation hit a new record this week, sending intraday electricity prices into negative territory for several hours—a stark reminder of the volatility created by rapid swings in renewable output. At 2 p.m. Thursday, French solar output surged to 19.5 gigawatts, meeting nearly 40% of national demand, according to grid operator RTE. That figure beat Bloomberg’s forecast peak of 18 GW and contributed to a midday glut of electricity that pushed prices as low as -€11 per megawatt-hour, Epex Spot SE data shows.…

So far in July, European natural gas markets have seen the lowest volatility in prices since 2021, but as summer temperatures peak in the coming weeks, demand is expected to rise, and so will the benchmark gas prices. In recent days, the historic 10-day volatility in European gas prices slumped to the lowest levels since September 2021, according to Bloomberg’s estimates. The low volatility followed a turbulent month of June, in which prices spiked due to concerns about disruptions to supply from the Middle East during the Israel-Iran conflict.…