Nearby WTI crude oil spent the week ending March 27 in a trader’s market, with headlines on U.S.-Iran diplomacy driving sharp intraday swings and keeping risk premium firmly tied to geopolitics. As of late Thursday, nearby WTI was trading at $94.30, down $3.93, or 4.00%, for the week. That weekly loss, however, hides the real story. Price action was violent in both directions as traders tried to price the odds of a ceasefire against the reality that the Strait of Hormuz remains the key chokepoint in the global oil system. Reuters reported…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict Governments moved again this week to release and build oil reserves as the supply shock from the Iran war deepened and the Strait of Hormuz remained constrained. Japan began releasing about one month of state-held crude, adding to earlier draws from private stockpiles, while the United States is already in the middle of one of its largest-ever Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases to contain price spikes. At the global level, the International Energy Agency confirmed that more than 400 million barrels are being…

If Trump’s push for a negotiated end to the war with Iran fails, there are few options that deliver immediate economic impact without expanding the fight inland. Seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s main offshore oil export terminal, is one of them. Trump has now paused strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure twice, to April 6, claiming it is intended as a window for negotiations that Tehran requested. He’s afraid to give away this leverage right now. At the same time, indirect communication is now confirmed, with Pakistan relaying…

Surging LNG prices amid the war in the Middle East are set to lead to the lowest monthly LNG imports into China in eight years as Qatari and UAE supply is off the market and Chinese buyers look to raise supply from domestic gas production and pipeline deliveries. China is on track to import about 3.7 million tons of LNG in March, per tanker-tracking data by Kpler cited by Bloomberg. That would be the lowest monthly import level in the world’s top LNG importer since the spring of 2018, as well as a 25% slump compared to March 2025, according…

Surging LNG prices amid the war in the Middle East are set to lead to the lowest monthly LNG imports into China in eight years as Qatari and UAE supply is off the market and Chinese buyers look to raise supply from domestic gas production and pipeline deliveries. China is on track to import about 3.7 million tons of LNG in March, per tanker-tracking data by Kpler cited by Bloomberg. That would be the lowest monthly import level in the world’s top LNG importer since the spring of 2018, as well as a 25% slump compared to March 2025, according…

Oil prices could hit a record $200 per barrel if the war in the Middle East drags on through the entire second quarter, analysts at Macquarie Group have warned.  The odds of the Iran war dragging on until June were put at 40% by the analysts in a note carried by Bloomberg. But the scenario of the war ending by the end of March currently appears more plausible, with odds at 60%, according to Macquarie.    “If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically…

Oil prices could hit a record $200 per barrel if the war in the Middle East drags on through the entire second quarter, analysts at Macquarie Group have warned.  The odds of the Iran war dragging on until June were put at 40% by the analysts in a note carried by Bloomberg. But the scenario of the war ending by the end of March currently appears more plausible, with odds at 60%, according to Macquarie.    “If the strait were to stay closed for an extended period, prices would need to move high enough to destroy an historically…

India on Friday moved to protect its fuel supply and consumers by reducing domestic taxes on gasoline and diesel and imposing a levy on fuel exports. In view of the West Asia crisis, the central excise duty on petrol and diesel for domestic consumption has been reduced by 10 rupees ($0.11) per liter each, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a post on X today. “This will provide protection to consumers from rise in prices,” the minister added.  In addition, India also imposes duties on exports of diesel and jet fuel, at…

India on Friday moved to protect its fuel supply and consumers by reducing domestic taxes on gasoline and diesel and imposing a levy on fuel exports. In view of the West Asia crisis, the central excise duty on petrol and diesel for domestic consumption has been reduced by 10 rupees ($0.11) per liter each, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said in a post on X today. “This will provide protection to consumers from rise in prices,” the minister added.  In addition, India also imposes duties on exports of diesel and jet fuel, at…

European natural gas futures climbed toward €55/MWh on Thursday, snapping a four-day losing streak due to uncertainty over a Middle East ceasefire and ongoing threats to energy infrastructure. Initial hopes for a Middle East ceasefire quickly faded after Iran rejected Washington’s 15-point peace proposal and outlined its own conditions instead. Damage to Gulf energy infrastructure has been extensive, with approximately 40 energy assets across the Gulf having been attacked. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has forced rerouting…