Despite lower oil prices, ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM) booked higher-than-expected earnings for the fourth quarter as quarterly production in the Permian basin and offshore Guyana set new records. Exxon reported on Friday earnings excluding identified items of $7.3 billion for the fourth quarter, or $1.71 per share. This beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.70 per share. Earnings were lower in the fourth quarter from a year earlier, due to lower oil prices and weak chemicals margins.  Early this month, Exxon had flagged an $800 million to $1.2…

Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict On the US-Iran front, this week was full of bluster with Trump’s trademark tactic of ambiguous escalation, roiling markets and sending gold and crude soaring on apocalyptic hedging. Trump publicly said the U.S. is ready to strike Iran, which was purposefully ambiguous. Alongside the rhetoric, the U.S. military is maintaining an elevated posture in the Middle East. Iran responded on the military front by announcing live-fire drills in and around the Strait of Hormuz with U.S. warships in nearby waters.…

This week, French and U.S. officials convened a quiet meeting in Paris between representatives of Libya’s rival power centers: figures close to Abdulhamid Dbeibah, the Tripoli-based prime minister whose authority rests on control of state finances, and figures aligned with Khalifa Haftar, the eastern commander whose power derives from armed force and oil leverage.  Publicly, the talks were about strengthening Libya’s “institutions” (Central Bank, the NOC, and budget oversight bodies). In practice, they’re about…

Iran Tensions Put Risk Premium Front and Center The biggest driver this week has been a sharp escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions, injecting a sizeable risk premium into both benchmarks. Reports that President Trump is considering targeted strikes on Iranian leadership have pushed Brent to around $70.70 and WTI to the mid-$60s—the highest levels since mid-2025. Trump warned Tehran it faces military force unless it accepts a new nuclear deal, with talk of a "massive armada" headed toward the region. The U.S. has reinforced its naval presence…

If you will forgive me, I intend this week to write about something other than energy. Or, at least, not to address energy stocks or commodity prices directly. US interest rates, often considered a somewhat boring, nerdy storyline by many traders and investors, are still one of the biggest factors in determining the prospects for the global, as well as the American, economy.  It is, therefore, essential that investors in energy, as just about the most sensitive sector to global conditions, follow the ongoing saga at the Fed. As I write, on…

Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices were headed on Friday for their largest monthly gain since 2023 as cold snaps in January boosted heating and power demand and fast-draining storage sites fueled a market rally. The front-month Dutch TTF Natural Gas Futures, the benchmark for Europe’s gas trading, were on track for a 38% monthly gain on Friday, the biggest advance in one month since the summer of 2023, when a supply crunch sent prices skyrocketing. On Friday morning in Amsterdam, the benchmark price was 1.3% higher on the day, at…

Chevron Corporation (NYSE: CVX) reported on Friday consensus-beating earnings for the fourth quarter as it pledged to boost presence in Venezuela, where it is currently the only U.S. company authorized to operate. Chevron reported today adjusted earnings of $3.0 billion, or $1.52 per share, for the fourth quarter of 2025. While the profit was lower compared to the same period of 2024 – as widely expected due to lower oil prices – Chevron’s earnings beat the analyst consensus estimate of $1.42 per share compiled by The Wall Street…

The UK’s largest energy supplier, Octopus Energy, is entering the Chinese market with a joint venture to trade renewable power in the world’s top clean energy market. Octopus Energy announced the deal on Friday, as the UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer is on an official visit to China to restart UK-Chinese relations. As part of an agreement with China’s PCG Power, Octopus Energy will form a joint venture to trade renewable energy across the world’s largest clean energy market. The joint venture is also a major step…