Five months of mostly closed Strait of Hormuz have not sent oil prices spiking to $150 or $200 per barrel, as many analysts had warned in March. Even as more than 10% of global crude oil supply suddenly disappeared from the market, oil didn’t hit record high levels. Crude oil prices haven’t even stayed permanently above $100 per barrel. Three key drivers have kept oil prices from surging to never-before-seen highs. First, governments started tapping strategic reserves, including as part of the IEA-coordinated 400-million-barrel stocks…

Wood Mackenzie now estimates that the global upstream oil and gas sector could generate $495 billion in free cash flow in 2026 if crude averages $90 per barrel, more than doubling its previous forecast based on a $60 oil price assumption. The revision follows the sharp jump in crude prices triggered by the Middle East conflict, turning what had been expected to be another year of disciplined cash generation into one of the industry’s most lucrative windfalls in recent years. Yet the gains will be concentrated among the world’s largest…

A failure to fully acknowledge the extent of Europe’s energy insecurities could lead to national security vulnerabilities, according to former United States Secretary of State John Kerry. NATO’s summit in Ankara, Türkiye this month displayed a recommitment to cohesion and cooperation against the backdrop of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Iran, but contained almost no mention of the energy crises that these conflicts have wrought, and the huge impact that the ensuing energy insecurity has on the continents’ ability to defend…

Saudi Arabia’s quarterly budget deficit shrank by nearly three-quarters in the second quarter, courtesy of the same war that hammered its oil industry and sent the economy into its steepest contraction since the pandemic. The Kingdom posted a 34.3-billion-riyal—or $9.1-billion—shortfall for the three months through June, down from 125.7 billion riyals in the first quarter, according to the finance ministry. Oil revenue rose 28% from the previous quarter as crude prices jumped. As for spending, it fell 3.5%. War, as it turns out,…

Saudi Arabia’s quarterly budget deficit shrank by nearly three-quarters in the second quarter, courtesy of the same war that hammered its oil industry and sent the economy into its steepest contraction since the pandemic. The Kingdom posted a 34.3-billion-riyal—or $9.1-billion—shortfall for the three months through June, down from 125.7 billion riyals in the first quarter, according to the finance ministry. Oil revenue rose 28% from the previous quarter as crude prices jumped. As for spending, it fell 3.5%. War, as it turns out,…

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slightly increased as US-Iran negotiations remained ongoing in an effort to restore peace after the memorandum of understanding collapsed amid two weeks of tit-for-tat strikes, according to Pakistan's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Tahir Andrabi, who provided no further details. Still, the security situation in the Gulf deteriorated overnight after the US launched a new wave of strikes on Iran following attacks on US forces in Jordan. Additionally, reports emerged that a US-owned LNG vessel was struck…

China’s trade turnover with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the largest economies in Central Asia, showed strong growth in the first half of 2026, as did trade with Tajikistan. Meanwhile, the numbers for Kyrgyzstan and Turkmenistan fell, according to the PRC’s General Administration of Customs.   China’s overall trade with the region showed a year-on-year increase of 6.5 percent, rising from $49,70 billion in the first half of 2025 to $52.94 billion during the same period this year. The…

Russia is running short of undamaged oil refinery capacity, and it’s looking to Kazakhstan for help. Kazakhstan said Thursday that it is in talks with Moscow to process Russian oil at Kazakh refineries, sell some of the resulting fuel domestically, and send a portion back across the border to Russia. No volumes, commercial terms, or refineries have been named. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said market participants would decide where the products go. For Kazakhstan, Russian crude would help keep its refineries running at stable rates…

Russia is running short of undamaged oil refinery capacity, and it’s looking to Kazakhstan for help. Kazakhstan said Thursday that it is in talks with Moscow to process Russian oil at Kazakh refineries, sell some of the resulting fuel domestically, and send a portion back across the border to Russia. No volumes, commercial terms, or refineries have been named. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said market participants would decide where the products go. For Kazakhstan, Russian crude would help keep its refineries running at stable rates…

U.S. refineries are producing the most gasoline and diesel since before the pandemic lockdowns, refining margins are running at record highs, but the world is still short on fuels. And it would take a while—and maybe a peace deal in the Middle East—before the situation changes. Fuel shortages are the more important oil crisis because it is fuels that the world consumes, not unrefined crude oil. Yet ever since the U.S. and Israel launched their first strikes on Iran at the end of February, it is crude oil prices that have been hogging…

The US economy grew at a far weaker than expected pace in the second quarter despite a pickup in consumer spending and solid business investment. According to the BEA, GDP (inflation adjusted) rose just 1.5% in the period, according to the first estimate issued Thursday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This was well below the 2.0% median estimate.  The contributors to the increase in real GDP in the second quarter were increases in consumer spending, investment, and exports that were partly offset by a decrease in government spending. A…

Russia has extended restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports through January 31, 2027, just five days after saying the diesel ban would disappear once its domestic fuel market recovered. Recovery, it seems, has been rescheduled. Moscow first banned diesel exports from July 8 through July 31 after repeated Ukrainian drone attacks knocked refineries offline, triggering fuel shortages and price spikes across Russia. Gasoline and jet fuel exports were already restricted. The new order covers gasoline, diesel, marine fuel, and gas oils. Beginning…

Russia has extended restrictions on gasoline and diesel exports through January 31, 2027, just five days after saying the diesel ban would disappear once its domestic fuel market recovered. Recovery, it seems, has been rescheduled. Moscow first banned diesel exports from July 8 through July 31 after repeated Ukrainian drone attacks knocked refineries offline, triggering fuel shortages and price spikes across Russia. Gasoline and jet fuel exports were already restricted. The new order covers gasoline, diesel, marine fuel, and gas oils. Beginning…

Iraq’s new prime minister, Ali Al-Zaidi, was first regarded as a political newcomer with no prior experience in government or political office, but he understood enough about Iraq’s interests to insist his first overseas trip be to the United States, unlike his predecessors, whose first official visits were always to Iran. Al-Zaidi recently concluded his visit to Washington, D.C., and a successful meeting with U.S. president Donald Trump. Al-Zaidi appears to have achieved significant gains, although some are still memoranda…

The share of coal in China’s electricity output fell in the first half of 2026 to below 50% for the first time on record, in a landmark achievement of the Chinese policy to boost non-fossil power sources. The share of coal averaged 49.7% of China’s total electricity output in the first half of this year, official data showed on Thursday. As the share of coal slipped, electricity generation from renewable energy rose by about 9% from a year earlier, according to the data from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA). Renewable…

The share of coal in China’s electricity output fell in the first half of 2026 to below 50% for the first time on record, in a landmark achievement of the Chinese policy to boost non-fossil power sources. The share of coal averaged 49.7% of China’s total electricity output in the first half of this year, official data showed on Thursday. As the share of coal slipped, electricity generation from renewable energy rose by about 9% from a year earlier, according to the data from China’s National Energy Administration (NEA). Renewable…

Iran fired ballistic missiles at American bases in Jordan late on July 28, in what appeared to be the first time Tehran initiated an attack on US targets since the war began in late February. The Islamic Republic has claimed it is fighting a war of resistance and framed its actions as purely defensive. But the attack on Jordan, where three American soldiers were killed this month, could mark a shift in strategy, experts say. Iran’s leadership “wants to demonstrate strength, and these military actions can be understood in that context,”…

Following a subdued start to the year, sales of electric vehicles (EVs) jumped in the second quarter after the Middle East crisis slashed crude supply and hiked oil and fuel prices, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in a report on Thursday. Global sales of electric cars fell in the first quarter of 2026, largely reflecting lower sales in the United States and China, according to the agency’s report ‘Electric Car Markets in a Time of Uncertainty’. However, EV sales rebounded sharply in the second quarter, rising by 35%…

Shell has said it will continue its bumper share buyback programme after revealing the Iran war’s effect on oil prices and trading volumes helped it book a near-record profit. The Anglo-Dutch giant’s net profit spiked to $9.8bn between April and July, more than double the same period last year and beating analyst estimates. Shares were up two per cent on the news to 3,376.00p in early trading. The petrochemicals giant announced it would continue to return much of those profits to shareholders and continue its $3bn quarterly share buyback…

Qatar’s state-owned QatarEnergy has bought on the spot market as many as 33 cargoes from the United States so far this year to ship them to customers in Asia to reduce the impact of its own stranded supply due to the Iran war, Reuters reported on Thursday, quoting industry and trade sources. The buying spree on the spot market so far in 2026 vastly exceeds the only four U.S. cargoes QatarEnergy bought last year. The acquisition of the nearly three dozen U.S. spot cargoes, reportedly directly from U.S. producer and exporter Venture Global,…