Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict In Sudan, drone strikes on Khartoum International Airport in the Sudanese capital hit just before its planned reopening, delaying operations and reinforcing doubts over the Sudanese army’s ability to secure the capital, while simultaneously undermining a new transit agreement with Juba to safeguard South Sudan’s oil exports. The paramilitary Rapid Support Forces still hold key sections of the pipeline and surrounding territory, leaving crude flows vulnerable and turning both the airport attack and…

Al-Qaeda’s attack in Al-Mahfad, in southern Yemen, which killed nine Yemeni soldiers, underscores the fragility of the southern front and the extent to which external actors are now managing (not directing) Yemen’s war. AQAP (al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula) is operating across the gaps between rival forces nominally under the Presidential Leadership Council, but practically loyal to separate sponsors. The STC dominates Aden and much of Lahj and Abyan with Emirati support. Islah-aligned units remain entrenched in Marib and parts of…