If oil had a face right now, it would be grinning awkwardly—and Morgan Stanley can’t look away. According to the bank’s latest note, the Brent crude forward curve has twisted itself into a bizarre shape: it’s sloping down hard across the first nine contracts, then turning upward into 2026. In Morgan Stanley’s words, “there is little historical precedent” for this lopsided smile. What’s behind the weirdness? Blame the usual suspects: a U.S.-driven trade war, OPEC+’s unexpected pump-fest, and…

Global stocks were steady overnight, with U.S. equity futures marginally higher, as sentiment improved following reports that President Trump plans to ease tariffs on foreign auto parts used in U.S.-made vehicles. The news comes as Trump marks his first 100 days in office, ahead of a rally in Michigan scheduled for this evening.  The Wall Street Journal, citing multiple sources familiar with the plans, reported that the proposed tariff rollback would offer major relief to automakers producing vehicles within the U.S. borders. These companies…

Chinese state-held oil and gas giant CNOOC booked lower net profit for the first quarter of 2025 as lower oil prices more than offset increased production. CNOOC, which specializes in offshore oil and gas developments in China and internationally, reported on Tuesday a net profit attributable to equity shareholders of $5 billion (36.56 billion Chinese yuan) for the first quarter, down by 7.9% compared to the same period of 2024. The decline was attributed to lower realized oil prices. During the quarter, CNOOC’s average realized oil price…

It looks like the post-COVID commodity party is over - with the World Bank predicting a rather bleak end. In its latest report, the bank predicts that global commodity prices will plunge 12% in 2025 and another 5% in 2026, dragging them all the way back to their pre-pandemic levels. The World Bank expects energy prices, specifically, to fall 17% to their lowest levels in five years, and then another 6% next year. Blame it on sputtering global growth, rising tariffs, and the general messiness of international trade. Brent crude, the world’s…

India is ramping up purchases and imports of crude oil from the United States ahead of crucial talks on the U.S. tariffs next month. As many as 11.2 million barrels of U.S. crude are on route to arrive in India in June, per data from analytics firm Kpler cited by Bloomberg. This would be the highest U.S. crude volume arriving in India since August 2024. India’s state-owned refining giants are leading the higher purchases of U.S. crude, as India hopes to have tariffs lowered if it buys more American energy products. State Indian refiners,…

India is ramping up purchases and imports of crude oil from the United States ahead of crucial talks on the U.S. tariffs next month. As many as 11.2 million barrels of U.S. crude are on route to arrive in India in June, per data from analytics firm Kpler cited by Bloomberg. This would be the highest U.S. crude volume arriving in India since August 2024. India’s state-owned refining giants are leading the higher purchases of U.S. crude, as India hopes to have tariffs lowered if it buys more American energy products. State Indian refiners,…

India is ramping up purchases and imports of crude oil from the United States ahead of crucial talks on the U.S. tariffs next month. As many as 11.2 million barrels of U.S. crude are on route to arrive in India in June, per data from analytics firm Kpler cited by Bloomberg. This would be the highest U.S. crude volume arriving in India since August 2024. India’s state-owned refining giants are leading the higher purchases of U.S. crude, as India hopes to have tariffs lowered if it buys more American energy products. State Indian refiners,…

Oil prices are once again under pressure as supply concerns continue unabated, with a scarcity of bullish catalysts to counteract them.- 142 executive orders and 100 days into the second presidential mandate of Donald Trump, commodity markets are reeling from disruptive policies launched by the U.S. President.- The US dollar has shed a lot of strength as its standing vis-à-vis other currencies such as the euro deteriorated (the EU currency gained 10% since late January, with the EUR/USD rate now standing at 1.14).- Whilst exchange-traded…

No previous U.S. government nor its now second-term President Donald Trump are known for their forgiving natures of supposed past betrayals. This is particularly true when the transgressor has been an entity on which both have been forced to rely for any length of time. Saudi Arabia as one of the world’s leading oil suppliers and the de facto leader of oil cartel OPEC for decades has been regarded with deep distrust by Washington since it catalysed the 1973/74 Oil Crisis at a time when the U.S. and its allies were still dependent on it for…

The world’s biggest oil and gas firms are set to see their earnings drop this year amid the decline in oil prices and lackluster trading business. Europe’s Big Oil firms have already flagged weaker first-quarter profits, which they will report in the next two weeks. Earnings for the second quarter are expected to further decline compared to both Q1 and the same quarter of 2024, as oil prices have crashed by about $10 per barrel since U.S. President Donald Trump launched the tariff offensive against the rest of the world on April 2,…

Drilling in the U.S. shale patch is starting to slow down amid weaker oil prices and cost uncertainty stemming from the tariff war. Smaller producers are suspending new drilling in anticipation of a turnaround. Perhaps larger producers will follow. The question now is how long until that turnaround. A month ago, Citigroup said that if U.S. oil prices fall below $60 drillers will start drilling less, which is what happens every time oil prices take a dip. At $65 per barrel of West Texas Intermediate, the bank’s analysts said, shale producers…

After ExxonMobil’s swathe of world-class discoveries in Guyana’s offshore Stabroek Block, the Guyana-Suriname Basin emerged as the world’s hottest drilling location. While Guyana’s economy is booming, becoming an oil superpower, neighboring Suriname has yet to benefit from the basin’s immense hydrocarbon potential, despite world-class oil discoveries in offshore Block 58. Suriname, a small country with a population of less than 700,000, which is among South America’s poorest, is believed to possess petroleum…

Take two nuclear-armed rivals. Mix in a history of war and a disputed region that's been the site of a decadeslong rebellion. Now add a deadly militant attack against civilians that risks boiling those tensions over. That's where things stand between India and Pakistan after an April 22 attack that killed mostly Indian nationals in Jammu and Kashmir sent tensions between the two countries skyrocketing. India has accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, but the Pakistani government denies it was behind the attack that killed 26 civilians.…

Oil prices were trading down 2% intraday, driven by ongoing demand fears combined with perceived progress on Iran nuclear talks and tariff whiplash, which continues to unsettle markets.On Monday, April 28, at 2:57 p.m. ET, Brent crude was paring its 2% daily losses slightly, trading down 1.60% at $65.80, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was trading down 1.59% at $62.02.  Oil prices are responding most heavily to the impact of the trade war on demand. On Monday, Beijing lashed out at Washington’s negotiating tactics, with Zhao Chenxin,…

Copper was touted as the hottest commodity of 2025, as covered in MetalMiner’s weekly newsletter. Capped by April’s tariff-driven turbulence, the last quarter only reinforced that view. Now it seems copper prices are poised to lead other metals in the short term. Many experts believe copper has reached an inflection point. As such, they expect its coming price moves to ripple through other raw commodity futures and even stock and financial markets. Copper Prices Were Tumultuous for Most of Q1 Since February, global copper prices have…

Economic activity across the South Caucasus and Central Asia is projected to stagnate over the next two years, as uncertainty envelops global markets, according to World Bank experts. The bank’s latest Europe and Central Asia Economic Update identifies the most serious challenges facing policymakers in the regions as weaker-than-expected trade, unpredictable policy shifts and decreasing prices for commodities. The report also cautions that inflationary pressure may continue to arise from rising food costs, tight labor markets and “potential…

India bought more Russian ESPO Blend oil in April than any month since August 2024, stepping in to scoop up what weakening Chinese demand for the blend has left behind, Reuters reported on Monday, citing LSEG data.  In April, the Reuters report shows Indian ports taking in around 400,000 metric tons of Russian ESPO, up from only 100,000 metric tons the month prior. Another 200,000 metric tons is set to ship to India in May, according to LSEG data.  Chinese demand for Russian ESPO dipped due to sanctions on Russian companies that led Chinese…

India bought more Russian ESPO Blend oil in April than any month since August 2024, stepping in to scoop up what weakening Chinese demand for the blend has left behind, Reuters reported on Monday, citing LSEG data.  In April, the Reuters report shows Indian ports taking in around 400,000 metric tons of Russian ESPO, up from only 100,000 metric tons the month prior. Another 200,000 metric tons is set to ship to India in May, according to LSEG data.  Chinese demand for Russian ESPO dipped due to sanctions on Russian companies that led Chinese…

India bought more Russian ESPO Blend oil in April than any month since August 2024, stepping in to scoop up what weakening Chinese demand for the blend has left behind, Reuters reported on Monday, citing LSEG data.  In April, the Reuters report shows Indian ports taking in around 400,000 metric tons of Russian ESPO, up from only 100,000 metric tons the month prior. Another 200,000 metric tons is set to ship to India in May, according to LSEG data.  Chinese demand for Russian ESPO dipped due to sanctions on Russian companies that led Chinese…

Labour’s push for EVs and heat pumps fail to account for a crucial detail – reality, says Matthew Bowles British Prime Minister Keir Starmer has reinstated the 2030 ban on the sale of all new petrol and diesel cars, after the previous government relaxed it to 2035. This follows a government review of the current Zero-Emission Vehicle (ZEV) mandate. The ZEV mandate is a policy tool requiring car manufacturers to sell a certain percentage of electric vehicles yearly to avoid fines. Initially, this was a yearly target, with the percentage…