Politics, Geopolitics & Conflict This week is the clearest escalation yet in U.S.-Venezuela relations. Trump has allegedly signed a covert-action finding authorizing CIA operations inside Venezuela, moving the U.S. posture from pressure to active shaping. At the same time, there is a carrier group already positioned in the Caribbean, and we’ve seen a revival of back-channel chatter during which Maduro has tested the idea of a 2-3 year transition and which DC has already rejected. Both the covert and military options are now in play for…

Libya’s fuel-smuggling economy has moved well beyond leakage and petty diversion. It is now a structured parallel system tied into the state’s own operating channels, with both eastern and western power centers benefiting. As we have repeatedly said, this is the fake stability that keeps the country from erupting into civil war again.  The revenue loss (north of $20B from 2022-2024) tracks with the period when refinery runs, allocation schedules, and tanker dispatches were repeatedly adjusted in ways that created excess product…

Crude oil spent last week trading with a bearish tilt as the market digested a rapid sequence of supply and geopolitical developments. The tone heading into Friday was defined by weakness, with WTI settling at $58.66 on Thursday, down $1.38 or 2.30%, after traders reassessed the impact of a potential Russia-Ukraine diplomatic framework and the likelihood of looser sanctions. Earlier support driven by Russian export disruptions faded quickly once flows resumed, leaving the market more responsive to surplus signals than temporary outages. While refined-product…

The COP30 climate summit is ditching an earlier draft of a roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels, according to the latest draft of negotiating texts at the global gathering in Belem, Brazil.  Many countries at COP30 have mobilized and supported a so-called “roadmap” to transition away from fossil fuels. But the latest draft document of the summit has removed reference to transitioning away from fossil fuels entirely, Reuters reports.  While more than 80 countries joined the call for a roadmap to move away from fossil…

UK households will pay slightly higher energy bills in the first quarter of 2026 after energy market regulator Ofgem on Friday raised the Energy Price Cap by 0.2%, against expectations of a 1% drop.   The UK has a so-called Energy Price Cap in place, which protects households from excessively high bills by capping the price that energy utility providers can pass on to them. Energy bills in Britain have declined from the record highs in 2022 and 2023, but they are still about 35% higher compared to before the Russian invasion of Ukraine…

UK households will pay slightly higher energy bills in the first quarter of 2026 after energy market regulator Ofgem on Friday raised the Energy Price Cap by 0.2%, against expectations of a 1% drop.   The UK has a so-called Energy Price Cap in place, which protects households from excessively high bills by capping the price that energy utility providers can pass on to them. Energy bills in Britain have declined from the record highs in 2022 and 2023, but they are still about 35% higher compared to before the Russian invasion of Ukraine…

Saudi Arabia made investment commitments of as much as $1 trillion during the visit of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in the United States. The sum is a substantial increase on an original pledge of $600 billion, but it is also a sign that the relationship between two of the world’s largest oil producers is back on track. The relationship, dating back to the early 20th century, was rather damaged during the Biden administration, in part due to its focus on the energy transition, which put it at odds with Saudi Arabia as an economy heavily…

Previously, we reported that erstwhile high-flying nuclear energy stocks have crashed spectacularly, with the harsh reality of the long lead and construction times of nuclear facilities, coupled with the fact that some stocks in the space with zero revenues are in nosebleed territory, sending the sector into a tailspin. However, the nuclear sector is in good company: the entire U.S. stock market has lately been pulling back, with tech stocks selling off and the AI-driven boom running out of steam.  That said, one corner of the energy universe…

Since China restricted exports of rare earth elements early this year, Western countries have raced to create mine-to-magnet supply chains to reduce dependence on Chinese supply in the key military and automotive industries. The Trump Administration is ensuring funding through buying minority stakes in North American rare earth and lithium companies and projects, while companies in the U.S. and Europe are setting up alliances with miners and refiners to have magnet supply chains outside and independent of China. The West has realized it’s…